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Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

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Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#211

Post by roenxi »

kayewiggin wrote: post #192
jurli wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's literally happening lol. When you were a kid China was making shoes and their GDP is 10% of the US. Now they're making drones / evs / high end electornics and it's 80%. This is why people's perception is so unreliable because it's impossible to notice things when they happen over a lifetime

> making drones / evs / high end electornics China does have a current advantage on lithium battery and rare earth materials - dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly, less than a year. EUV and 3nm and below on the other hand, will take decades, since it involves a number of different and deep technologies controlled by dozens of companies. China has thrown $150B on it since 2014, and has on…

> when real estate prices have dropped by more than 50% in tier 2 and below cities, and deflation has raged on.

Can other economies copy that part? I know a bunch of people who'd like to be able to afford more houses & more groceries at the same time. I'd like that, I can't realistically afford a house in the city I live in without a 50% price drop.

I'm sure China has a lot of problems, but key goods getting cheaper is not one of them. What I'm guessing you meant to say is that retirees were led to put too much of their savings into the housing market and are discovering there is a glut. Which is tragic for them. But prices dropping is a good thing; the unachievable ideal is a utopia where everything is free, ie, 100% deflation.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#212

Post by kayewiggin »

eunos wrote: post #205
kayewiggin wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> making drones / evs / high end electornics China does have a current advantage on lithium battery and rare earth materials - dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly, less than a year. EUV and 3nm and below on the other hand, will take decades, since it involves a number of different and deep technologies controlled by dozens of companies. China has thrown $150B on it since 2014, and has on…

> dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly Laugh in Northvolt > $150B on it since 2014, and has only come up with low yield/unprofitable 7nm via existing DUV machines Considering that there are less than 5 countries on Earth that can fab 7nm semiconductors, that aint bad.

RIP Northvolt from Sweden and The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1114964240/new-battery-techno.... However:

- Battery Startup Opens Chicago Plant as US Seeks to Curb Reliance on China https://www.nanograf.com/media/battery-startup-opens-chicago...

- Our own YC: https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/energy

- China’s startup scene is dead as investors pull out—’Today, we are like lepers’ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-startup-scene-dead-inve...

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#213

Post by FooBarWidget »

dboreham wrote: post #208
FooBarWidget wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why aren't US and allies demonstrably replicating EVs (and other kinds of green technology) quickly? Tesla is still pretty much the only serious player. Why are CEOs of major western carmakers painting a very different picture than what you describe here? Where are the serious EU/US battery makers that are globally competitive? It looks to me like the EU has chosen the worst of all options: put up tarriff barriers…

Western consumers don't want to buy EVs (mostly).

Yeah I mean, with the sad state of the Dutch electric grid, the poor coverage of chargers, and the disappearing consumer subsidies, I wouldn't want either. So why aren't governments also building the infrastructure they need to help stimulate demand for EVs? Not taking global climate disaster serious enough?

Building EVs and supporting infrastructure is a lot more complicated than just having a bunch of blueprints.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#214

Post by protomolecule »

kayewiggin wrote: post #192
jurli wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's literally happening lol. When you were a kid China was making shoes and their GDP is 10% of the US. Now they're making drones / evs / high end electornics and it's 80%. This is why people's perception is so unreliable because it's impossible to notice things when they happen over a lifetime

> making drones / evs / high end electornics China does have a current advantage on lithium battery and rare earth materials - dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly, less than a year. EUV and 3nm and below on the other hand, will take decades, since it involves a number of different and deep technologies controlled by dozens of companies. China has thrown $150B on it since 2014, and has on…

>a lot of that GDP is debatable in 2024

While the share of services in the US GDP is more than 3/4. What will you do with all these expensive NY lawyers when push comes to shove? Sue China's drones?

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#215

Post by slt2021 »

dboreham wrote: post #208
FooBarWidget wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why aren't US and allies demonstrably replicating EVs (and other kinds of green technology) quickly? Tesla is still pretty much the only serious player. Why are CEOs of major western carmakers painting a very different picture than what you describe here? Where are the serious EU/US battery makers that are globally competitive? It looks to me like the EU has chosen the worst of all options: put up tarriff barriers…

Western consumers don't want to buy EVs (mostly).

They would buy Chinese EVs since they are much cheaper than ICE

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#216

Post by lolinder »

jurli wrote: post #164
Etheryte wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, I've been hearing the story that China is about to upend the US as the leading global superpower ever since I was a kid. There's always a new vogue and novel twist put on the rationale and how it's gonna happen, but so far it's like fusion, always a few years away.

It's literally happening lol. When you were a kid China was making shoes and their GDP is 10% of the US. Now they're making drones / evs / high end electornics and it's 80%. This is why people's perception is so unreliable because it's impossible to notice things when they happen over a lifetime

And now they're at the point where the population pyramid is collapsing. It's hard to make any predictions about the future when they got here riding a baby boom and now their ratio of elderly to working age is about to go through the roof.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2023/

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#217

Post by eunos »

kayewiggin wrote: post #212
eunos wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly Laugh in Northvolt > $150B on it since 2014, and has only come up with low yield/unprofitable 7nm via existing DUV machines Considering that there are less than 5 countries on Earth that can fab 7nm semiconductors, that aint bad.

RIP Northvolt from Sweden and The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1114964240/new-battery-techno... . However: - Battery Startup Opens Chicago Plant as US Seeks to Curb Reliance on China https://www.nanograf.com/media/battery-startup-opens-chicago... - Our own YC: https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/energy - China’s startup scene…

> RIP Northvolt

Northvolt isnt lacking funding (pedantically they are, else they wouldnt be bankrupt) or clients, but know-how for scaling putting aside some conspiracy theories about Chinese equipments. Turns out scaling isnt easy.

vanadium redox flow isnt very big yet even for Energy Storage System

Side note: The tendency US and Westernin general to depend on Wunderwaffe tech (Vanadium Redox! Solid State Battery!) is quite amusing.

> China’s startup scene is dead as investors pull out

Turns out Emperor Pooh dislike get-rich-quick startup mentality and yet another useless apps. He wouldnt mind hard tech bro like Ren Zhengfei or Wang Chuanfu though.

P.S. Watch the robotic space, things might get interesting in a year or two.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#218

Post by lolinder »

vkou wrote: post #188
opwieurposiu wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China creates a superbug via GOF research. Accidently releases it from the lab. Shuts down its own economy. Puts the majority of it's citizens on house arrest, and that is "largely successful"? Please send me the AliExpress link to whatever it is you are smoking, it must be some good shit. I think the real lesson here is that if you enough government power, there is no need to be competent. The feedback loop is destr…

> China creates a superbug via GOF research In 2024, this isn't fact, it's just baseless conspiracy. All evidence has ended up pointing to bush meat contamination.

The WHO report was inconclusive because the lab withheld data.

This creates a bit of a catch-22, no? There's no basis to claim it was a lab leak because the lab in question won't cooperate with establishing whether there's a basis for the idea.

It'd be one thing if the proper amount of research was done and made public and we could see that there was no conspiracy. As is, there's a lab located in Wuhan studying coronaviruses that pinky promises that they didn't start COVID-19, while the WHO director is on record saying that the lab blocked the WHO investigation that might have exonerated them.

I think it's prudent to forgive people for whom "this is a baseless conspiracy theory" isn't a sufficient explanation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-ch...

https://doi.org/10.1136%2Fbmj.n1890

https://apnews.com/article/health-china-coronavirus-pandemic...

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#220

Post by kayewiggin »

roenxi wrote: post #211
kayewiggin wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> making drones / evs / high end electornics China does have a current advantage on lithium battery and rare earth materials - dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly, less than a year. EUV and 3nm and below on the other hand, will take decades, since it involves a number of different and deep technologies controlled by dozens of companies. China has thrown $150B on it since 2014, and has on…

> when real estate prices have dropped by more than 50% in tier 2 and below cities, and deflation has raged on. Can other economies copy that part? I know a bunch of people who'd like to be able to afford more houses & more groceries at the same time. I'd like that, I can't realistically afford a house in the city I live in without a 50% price drop. I'm sure China has a lot of problems, but key goods getting cheaper…

China's real estate prices having dropped 50% or more has been accompanied by/caused by wages being slashed 50% or more, and increasing unemployment rate, such as 30%+ for youth.

Here are some good posts on why nobody wants deflation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/uzq5bu/why_is...

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/mbsxyl/can_so...

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/yotf0c/i_dont...

also coincidentally and recently, China’s Xi Jinping asked ‘What’s so bad about deflation?’ amid economic slowdown https://fortune.com/2024/12/29/china-economy-deflation-xi-ji...

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