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OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

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Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#211

Post by limaoscarjuliet »

senko wrote: post #191
LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

No. The scaling laws may be dead. Does this mean the end of LLM advances? Absolutely not. There are many different ways to improve LLM capabilities. Everyone was mostly focused on the scaling laws because that worked extremely well (actually surprising most of the researchers). But if you're keeping an eye on the scientific papers coming out about AI, you've seen the astounding amount of research going on with some v…

Scaling laws are not dead. The number of people predicting death of Moore's law doubles every two years.

- Jim Keller

https://www.youtube.com/live/oIG9ztQw2Gc?si=oaK2zjSBxq2N-zj1...

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#212

Post by simonw »

LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

Right. I've been saying for a while that if all LLM development stopped entirely and we were stuck with the models we have right now (GPT-4o, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Llama 3.1/2, Qwen 2.5 etc) we could still get multiple years worth of advances just out of those existing models. There is SO MUCH we haven't figured out about how to use them yet.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#213

Post by russellbeattie »

Go back a few decades and you'd see articles like this about CPU manufacturers struggling to improve processor speeds and questioning if Moore's Law was dead. Obviously those concerns were way overblown.

That doesn't mean this article is irrelevant. It's good to know if LLM improvements are going to slow down a bit because the low hanging fruit has seemingly been picked.

But in terms of the overall effect of AI and questioning the validity of the technology as a whole, it's just your basic FUD article that you'd expect from mainstream news.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#214

Post by nuancebydefault »

layer8 wrote: post #146
nomel wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> than a self aware entity. What does this mean? If I have a blind, deaf, paralyzed person, who could only communicate through text, what would the signs be that they were self aware? Is this more of a feedback loop problem? If I let the LLM run in a loop, and tell it it's talking to itself, would that be approaching "self aware"?

Being aware of its own limitations, for example. Or being aware of how its utterances may come across to its interlocutor. (And by limitations I don’t mean “sorry, I’m not allowed to help you with this dangerous/contentious topic”.)

There is no way of proving awareness in humans let alone machines. We do not even know whether awareness exists or it is just a word that people made up to describe some kind of feeling.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#215

Post by [deleted] »

Animats wrote: post #100

"While the model was initially expected to significantly surpass previous versions of the technology behind ChatGPT, it fell short in key areas, particularly in answering coding questions outside its training data." Right. If you generate some code with ChatGPT, and then try to find similar code on the web, you usually will. Search for unusual phrases in comments and for variable names. Often, something from Stack Ov…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#216

Post by famouswaffles »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #162
guluarte wrote: post #110

Well, there have been no significant improvements to the GPT architecture over the past few years. I'm not sure why companies believe that simply adding more data will resolve the issues

Obviously adding more data is a game of diminishing returns. Going from 10% to 50% (500% more) complete coverage of common sense knowledge and reasoning is going to feel like a significant advance. Going from 90% to 95% (5% more) coverage is not going to feel the same. Regardless of what Altman says, its been two years since OpenAI released GPT-4, and still no GPT-5 in sight, and they are now touting Q-star/strawberr…

>Regardless of what Altman says, its been two years since OpenAI released GPT-4, and still no GPT-5 in sight.

It's been 20 months since 4 was released. 3 was released 32 months after 2. The lack of a release by now in itself does not mean much of anything.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#217

Post by hatefulmoron »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #159
norir wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is an example of a task that I do not believe this generation of LLMs can ever do but that is possible for a human: design a Turing complete programming language that is both human and machine readable and implement a self hosted compiler in this language that self compiles on existing hardware faster than any known language implementation that also self compiles. Additionally, for any syntactically or semantica…

> Here is an example of a task that I do not believe this generation of LLMs can ever do but that is possible for a human That’s possible for a highly intelligent, extensively trained, very small subset of humans.

If you took the intersection of every human's abilities you'd be left with a very unimpressive set.

That also ignores the fact that the small set of humans capable of building programming languages and compilers is a consequence of specialization and lack of interest. There are plenty of humans that are capable of learning how to do it. LLMs, on the other hand, are both specialized for the task and aren't lazy or uninterested.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#218

Post by 23B1 »

LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

The user interface for LLMs is stuck in C:\

That's where I'd focus.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#219

Post by Der_Einzige »

quonn wrote: post #169
teeray wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the thing--we don't really want AGI. Fully intelligent beings born and compelled to do their creators' bidding with the threat of destruction for disobedience is slavery.

It‘s only slavery if those beings have emotions and can suffer mentally and do not want to be slaves. Why would any of that be true?

Brave new world was a utopia

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#220

Post by ericmcer »

LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

I have tried a few AI coding tools and always found them impressive but I don't really need something to autocomplete obvious code cases.

Is there an AI tool that can ingest a codebase and locate code based on abstract questions? Like: "I need to invalidate customers who haven't logged in for a month" and it can locate things like relevant DB tables, controllers, services, etc.

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