211–220 of 443 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Same thing was said of Netflix, of Uber, etc... Venture capital loses money to win marketshare, tale as old as time
Were Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Tesla/Twitter(x), and a whole bunch of other gigantic (Chinese aswell) corporations trying to compete for the same market back then? I don't think Netflix and Uber had even a fraction of the competition that this field will have.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apple is an extremely conservative minded company. Making a huge gamble on an overhyped overvalued company for a chance at a 10x return isn't in their DNA.
or after building their own LLM that runs locally on Apple Sillicon they've decided that this technology is crazily overhyped
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I seems like not ending well is the vast majority of outcomes. They dont have a profitable product or business today. It seems that me most likely outcome is that they have one replaceable product against many and few options to get return commensurate with valuation. My guess is that investors are are making a calculated bet. 90% chance the company become irrelevant, 10% chance it has a major breakthrough and someho…
> That said, I have no clue what confidential information they are showing to investors. For all we know, they are being shown super human intelligence behind closed doors. If that were the case, I wonder why Apple passed on this investment.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Difference is is that I can just switch to another LLM. I cant really do the same for Google.
Why not? For Google Search specifically, there is no lock-in (obviously yhe productivity suite has more)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Revenue isn't profit. They're burning money at an impressive rate: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt... I wouldn't even be surprised if they were losing money on paying ChatGPT users on inference compute alone, and that isn't even factoring in the development of new models. There was an interesting article here (can't find the link unfortunately) that was arguing that model training costs s…
> I wouldn't even be surprised if they were losing money on paying ChatGPT users on inference compute alone I'd be surprised it that was the case. How many tokens is the average user going through? I'd be surprised if the avg user even hit a 1m tokens much less 20m.
Voice mode is around $0.25 per minute via API. I don't use that much, but 3 minutes ago per day would already exceed the cost of a ChatGPT Plus subscription by quite a bit.
Given the high risk, investors likely want a shot of earning at least a 10x return. $157 billion x 10 = $1.57 trillion, greater than META's current market capitalization. Greater returns would require even more aggressive assumptions. For example, a 30x return would require OpenAI to become the world's most valuable company by a large margin. All I can say to the investors, with the best of hopes, is: Good luck! You'…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don't need science fiction to find the bull case for OpenAI. You just have to think it stands to be the "next" Google, which feels increasingly plausible. Google's current market capitalization is in the trillions.
In 2023 Google had $307.39B in revenue and $24B in profit last quarter (suggesting ~100B in profit this year). Meanwhile OpenAI is losing money and making no where near these sums.
It reminds me of the old joke:
Heard about the guy who fell off a skyscraper? On his way down past each floor, he kept saying to reassure himself: So far so good... so far so good... so far so good.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
In 2023 Google had $307.39B in revenue and $24B in profit last quarter (suggesting ~100B in profit this year). Meanwhile OpenAI is losing money and making no where near these sums.
Facebook got all the way to an IPO with business fundamentals so bad that after the IPO, Paul Graham wrote a letter to all the then-current YC companies warning them that the Facebook stink was going to foul the whole VC market in the following years. Meta is now worth something like 1.4T.
Facebooks IPO financials were among the best financials at IPO ever
OpenAI has negative 130% adjusted operating margins.
$6.6B raise. The company loses $5B per year. So all this money literally gives them just an extra ~year and change of runway. I know the AI hype is sky high at the moment (hence the crazy valuation), but if they don't make the numbers make sense soon then I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. Another interesting part: > Under the terms of the new investment round, OpenAI has two years to transform into a for-pro…
> I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. I mean, what exactly do you see happening? The have a product people love and practically incalculable upside potential. They may or may not end up the winners, but I see no scenario in which it "doesn't end well". It's already "well", even if the company went defunct tomorrow. > that clause with that timeline seems a bit risky. I'm 99% certain that OpenAI drove the terms…
$6.6B raise. The company loses $5B per year. So all this money literally gives them just an extra ~year and change of runway. I know the AI hype is sky high at the moment (hence the crazy valuation), but if they don't make the numbers make sense soon then I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. Another interesting part: > Under the terms of the new investment round, OpenAI has two years to transform into a for-pro…
> I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. I mean, what exactly do you see happening? The have a product people love and practically incalculable upside potential. They may or may not end up the winners, but I see no scenario in which it "doesn't end well". It's already "well", even if the company went defunct tomorrow. > that clause with that timeline seems a bit risky. I'm 99% certain that OpenAI drove the terms…