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Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

ianbetteridge.com

211–220 of 235 posts

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this all feels like drama for its own sake It’s broadcasting that Y Combinator is a founder friendly investor. That comes with costs, e.g. if LPs think YC would have doubled down on the next Neumann or Bankman-Fried, or that its leadership is going full Ackman. But it will work at the margins for deal-finding partners, particularly with young founders. The hilarious part is this obviously wasn’t a message they trus…

You mean the Graham post, right? Sure; I mean, I don't think it was a calculated move to market YC --- for one thing, YC more or less sets the industry standard for founder-friendliness --- but I could see how the ABNB talk may have rhymed with something Graham believes is a strength of YC. My thing here is with this particular Ian Betteridge post. I don't think it says anything. It feels like it exists just to conne…

in vino veritas. surely PG, just emerging from a smothering of left-field rhymes, was in something like a state?

I agree that almost all the time its just a bunch of guys. Would you agree, though, that this time round it’s about good vs evil organizational structures?

Specifically, Apple are relevant because their designer stratum (generalizable to Jobs’ habit of reifying ICs, so that Woz enters en passant) rhymes with the intended designer culture in AirBnB (& YC if only because their current prez was designer culture raised)

Let me know if i somehow got the pulse on anything in your opinion.

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean the Graham post, right? Sure; I mean, I don't think it was a calculated move to market YC --- for one thing, YC more or less sets the industry standard for founder-friendliness --- but I could see how the ABNB talk may have rhymed with something Graham believes is a strength of YC. My thing here is with this particular Ian Betteridge post. I don't think it says anything. It feels like it exists just to conne…

in vino veritas . surely PG, just emerging from a smothering of left-field rhymes, was in something like a state? I agree that almost all the time its just a bunch of guys. Would you agree, though, that this time round it’s about good vs evil organizational structures ? Specifically, Apple are relevant because their designer stratum (generalizable to Jobs’ habit of reifying ICs, so that Woz enters en passant) rhymes…

Maybe! I can't think of many times I've read something I wrote the night before, literally cringed, and thought "what the fuck". I'm enjoying it! I recommend everyone find a way to have this experience. You have to do it in good faith though or it doesn't work.

What you're saying about Apple and AirBNB sounds plausible? I know next to nothing about ABNB's culture and operation. I know a fair bit about Apple's, and reductionist takes about Apple bug me. But like, if you're saying something concrete about Apple you're doing better than the post we're commenting on!

"Vectors along which we recapitulate our existing beliefs". Yeesh.

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#213
post #43
post #24

The part of "tech" which is ad-driven has become both boring and seriously annoying. Unfortunately, that's where the money is. There are interesting things going on: * Self-driving cars finally work. San Francisco is full of them. Next step is to get the cost down and replace those rotating scanners with something cheaper. At least the ones that aren't on top. * Robotic manipulation in unstructured situations is just…

> * Robotic manipulation in unstructured situations is just, maybe, starting to work. Maybe. We're getting close to Amazon warehouses, at least, going fully automatic. We might get more general purpose automated factories. This has been expected since the 1950s, but this time it might happen. Neural nets are better and cheaper now. How has this space not seen more action on the consumer side? Roombas came out 20 year…

> How has this space not seen more action on the consumer side? Roombas came out 20 years ago then there's been basically nothing but tiny increments on the same idea since.

This is a great example of "short term improvements are overestimated, long-term underestimated". As someone who jumped from a top-of-the-line robot vacuum in 2014 (not a Roomba - they were already slightly behind) to a high-quality-but-average one this year - those incremental improvements have added up to almost an entirely different product. That's not even counting the experiments out there like SwitchBot's plans (looks like the humidifier is out, but I don't see the dehumidifier on their site).

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those aren't flying cars. Flying cars can drive on the ground. On wheels. Hence the name.

That's a nitpick on the order of "LLMs are a dead end because they can't reconsider their output before writing it". Duh, run it in a loop. Duh, attach wheels to the "scaled up drone flying cars". If that's the standard, then every plane in existence meets it.

It is not a nitpick. VTOL aircraft are not cars. Period.

You might as well call helicopters "flying cars."

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those aren't flying cars. Flying cars can drive on the ground. On wheels. Hence the name.

There are a few companies working on actual flying cars. But they are lousy cars and lousy airplanes typically. And to quote doc Brown: “Roads? Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.” Or cars.

So what? Whether "flying cars" are good cars or good planes is beside the point.

The point is that VTOLs are not flying cars, any more than helicopters are.

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#216
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are just as many young blowhards. A lot of "tech" is mature now. People whine "where's the innovation" in phones, for example. At this point, WTF do you want them to do? Where's the "innovation" in spreadsheets or word processors? It IS kinda boring. And it's not going to get better when it's a bunch of recycled pablum shat out by "AI."

You're being downvoted possibly because of the tone, but there's something to what you're saying. People keep creating toil because they want to re-invent databases or distributed systems when we already know how to do them properly. I blame greed. It was all the people coming into the field for the money and trying to entertain themselves at work because they don't like tech, they like feeling smart.

Me? What "tone?"

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are just as many young blowhards. A lot of "tech" is mature now. People whine "where's the innovation" in phones, for example. At this point, WTF do you want them to do? Where's the "innovation" in spreadsheets or word processors? It IS kinda boring. And it's not going to get better when it's a bunch of recycled pablum shat out by "AI."

I'd say the same about microprocessors. They haven't changed _that_ much now in about 15 years. You could put a Core2 Quad on the same playfield as the latest and greatest Zen or Intel "14th Gen" - they're recognisably the same in ways that, say, a 1996 Pentium Pro and a 1981 8088 just aren't. At the same time, I wouldn't write off machine learning models so quickly. Applied in tight focus, they're unlocking a bunch…

[deleted]

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're onto it. Basically the wealthy freeze technological growth until they can understand how to make profit from it. Results are science and tech slowed to a glacial pace. We may not even be able to outengineer our problems due to this one thing.

I am not sure previous epochs and generations ever had to face this kind of active throttling of creativity and problem solving capacity. Maybe they did and its just that the context and feeling of despair is lost to us due to distance. But in any case due to the cumulative nature of both knowledge and our own aggravating problems with sustainability, the impact of this socioeconomic malfunction is probably the grave…

It makes me wonder what our future will look like? Are we doomed to climate collapse on this planet? In which case, is space-faring our future?

To further your point– if we can't even get our act together on this planet, what evidence is there that we could get our act together in space?

I think the survivors of these early centuries of the third millennium will be forced into space. By this point infrastructure from mining and refining rare-earth minerals will be in place. It will be survivable, but it won't be comfortable. It may never be.

Our debut as a space-faring species will mark a long dark age in our history. With no evidence that we can create microgravity, terraform, travel even close to half the speed of light, or put ourselves into some form of abeyance (cryosleep)– we will become divided, isolated, and oppressed to a degree we never have in our history. We will struggle for every resource we currently take for granted.

I have no doubt that humanity in some form will continue to survive, but I don't think it will be comfortable or ideal.

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

in vino veritas . surely PG, just emerging from a smothering of left-field rhymes, was in something like a state? I agree that almost all the time its just a bunch of guys. Would you agree, though, that this time round it’s about good vs evil organizational structures ? Specifically, Apple are relevant because their designer stratum (generalizable to Jobs’ habit of reifying ICs, so that Woz enters en passant) rhymes…

Maybe! I can't think of many times I've read something I wrote the night before, literally cringed, and thought "what the fuck". I'm enjoying it! I recommend everyone find a way to have this experience. You have to do it in good faith though or it doesn't work. What you're saying about Apple and AirBNB sounds plausible? I know next to nothing about ABNB's culture and operation. I know a fair bit about Apple's, and re…

How about this[0] for an "it's just a bunch of folks" hypothesis:

Some folks internalise the goals of an organisation well, and some internalise them poorly. Among domesticated animals, dogs and horses internalise their owners goals well, and cats poorly. (even in the animal world, specific individuals all have different time constants for how long you can leave them unsupervised before they get into trouble)

Most of the discussion I've skimmed on HN (including PG's original) assumes that founder mode is necessary because the external bigcorp hires are more like cats, and do what they want: pad their headcount, feather their nest, orphan their mistakes, etc.; any indication they added value at their previous job is just a slick con because the C- and V-suiters are exceptionally good at managing upward.

However, let's go back to that time constant: there's another variable here among animals, and that's how strong a reminder it takes to reset the clock. I don't think there's any horse which can be left next to bucket of grain without getting into it eventually. However, some horses can be reminded not to get into it by calling their name; other horses need a tug on a lead line; yet others pretty much need to be tied down on both sides.

A good faith hypothesis would be that the people PG was complaining about did do a good job at their previous position, and the difference is in leadership style: an engineering founder is going to be low-touch; the engineering paradigm is fire-and-forget, get a good person, tell them the problem is X, and they come back with a sol'n to X. What if (as at most bigcorps) the CEO had come up through two or three decades of sales instead? Then they will be high-touch, and constantly checking in to make sure things are moving forward[1], while being very experienced in (and sensitive to) all the ways people bullshit to cover a lack of momentum. So, in contrast to a tech founder, a sales CEO may be very effective out of getting good work out of a "Whiskey Priest" report, who has a short-time constant for staying out of trouble, but also —although they do need some attention— doesn't take much wrangling to remember to walk the line: less like cats, more like dogs who can't help but notice the squirrels, but can quickly be dissuaded from chasing them with no more than a verbal reminder.[2]

Does that make sense?

[0] caveat: I haven't read TFA or the other threads or even the ancestors here, and had been planning to discuss this with gradschoolfail in better context, but thought it might be nice to get your (tptacek) opinion as well.

[1] what is the difference between real estate heaven, and real estate hell? In heaven, there's a lively market and everyone is doing deals right and left. In hell, there's a lively market and everyone is doing deals right and left — but escrow never closes.

[2] in particular, this suggests that "founder mode" may initially show some positive effects (in that it forces the founder into a high-touch regime), but it would be possible to do even better by teaching founders to "ride herd" — rather than constantly making drastic interventions with individuals (especially other peoples' individuals!), it ought to scale better to constantly be making subtle interventions —story telling?— to keep the mob generally moving in the proper direction at the proper pace. (if this last analogy doesn't make any sense, let me know and I can easily illustrate it with a few examples from defrost's mustering video)

Re: Founder Mode, hackers, and being bored by tech

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not of technology. The problem is that we are working to apply technology solutions with no regard to the scale and trade-offs involved. - Automation is good. Striving for "100% robotic warehouses" is a recipe to further concentrate wealth around the handful of corporations that can deploy it. - Electric engines are good. Thinking that we would be better off by giving one car to every adult person inst…

On the diabetes point specifically. Having drugs to treat it is good. But a food system and built environment that causes a big chunk of the population to develop T2D in middle-age, and sees the solution as "take a pill to make it go away" is a profoundly unhealthy one. Insulin-insensitivity is supposed to be a rare-ish disease of old age, not a common disease of middle age.

Yes, it's an unhealthy one, but here's the thing: The drugs affecting this changes purchasing patterns too. It doesn't just make the symptoms go away. As a result it may very well end up having lasting changes to food consumption patterns. It'd be nice if we didn't need it in the first place, but as drugs go, these drugs seem to fix the right thing.
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