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Will we ever get fusion power?

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Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#211

Post by cubefox »

grecy wrote: post #62
JohnFen wrote: post #24

"Ever" is a very long time. Will we get fusion power in the next few decades? I wouldn't bet on it, but I also wouldn't bet against it.

Given how rapidly the price of batteries and solar are falling, it seems absurd to think it will make any economic sense to spend tens of billions of dollars on a monster fusion plant. China are churning out regular old fission plants, and have 27 under construction right now . Even still, the average build time is 7 years. So even if we get some breakthrough and figure out how to build a commercial fusion plant, it'…

> Given how rapidly the price of batteries and solar are falling

Battery prices are pretty stable, which is huge problem for wind and solar energy.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#212

Post by zamadatix »

TrainedMonkey wrote: post #173
tedd4u wrote: post #150

From 2 years ago. Large region of Australia running fully on solar/wind/storage for 10+ days. Seems like the focus has to be on storage and continued improvement of grid-scale and rooftop solar and wind. South Australia has just chalked up what is undoubtedly a world first – a run of more than 10 consecutive days over which the average production of wind and solar accounted for 100 per cent of local demand. No other…

[flagged]

People slam this for being ChatGPT but I wonder how often the references it finds on the web are more relevant than ones in this [1] style of HN [2] comment that often get to the top of this type of thread yet lack any deep analysis either. Slamming it for not validating the sources support the claim at least makes sense but isn't really specific to the ChatGPT fixation.

Perhaps somewhat telling on that is the comments are focusing on how the source was found rather than debating or correcting the figures themselves. The first figure sourced seems both accurately sourced and accurately estimated. The second figure I'm having trouble finding in the linked source and the figure seems to be more based on renewable energy investment not renewable energy research. I'm also having a hard time finding any good source for current renewable energy research investment to replace that with though so I can't say much in regards to how the final conclusion fairs.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#214

Post by zamadatix »

ropejumper wrote: post #176
TrainedMonkey wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Why would ChatGPT have any idea about this at all? Its dataset wasn't made up of estimations for energy funds, and it makes absolutely no sense to ask it about that? I'm not sure why these figures or even their ratio would be trustworthy.

ChatGPT didn't use it's dataset for the numbers sourced in the linked chat. That said you do have to still go validate the sources it finds and see they say it says what they say it says, which I don't think is true for the second claim.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#215

Post by 7thaccount »

kelnos wrote: post #167
tonyarkles wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I'm living up north here where from Nov 15 to Jan 26 we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day and the sun is at a low angle above the horizon. We won't be generating anywhere near nameplate capacity even if the sky is clear due to the ubiquity. Add clouds and the short day... and it's really rough for a few months. Sometimes it's windy when it's dark and cold, and sometimes it just stays cloudy and calm for a…

This is why advances in even-longer transmission lines will be necessary. Even if you your power is generated 3000km south of you and needs to be shipped up, the transmission line losses will only be, what, around 10% or so? That might mean your electricity is a little more expensive than it is for people who live farther south, but it's probably still cheaper than what we have now.

The idea of an HVDC macrogrid is possible, but will be hard to believe expensive and would be a huge vulnerability.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#216

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

zamadatix wrote: post #212
TrainedMonkey wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

People slam this for being ChatGPT but I wonder how often the references it finds on the web are more relevant than ones in this [1] style of HN [2] comment that often get to the top of this type of thread yet lack any deep analysis either. Slamming it for not validating the sources support the claim at least makes sense but isn't really specific to the ChatGPT fixation. Perhaps somewhat telling on that is the commen…

The problem is that even when incorrect, typically someone intended the correct information to on a website.

Where LLMs are just an inference of related words.

So by your scenario, the LLM also picked up the incorrect answer on a website and included it into its inference.

He isn’t downvoted for being lazy, he’s downvoted for using a language model as a fact model. Even if sometimes it does work.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#217

Post by 7thaccount »

diordiderot wrote: post #134
7thaccount wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Storage can come to the rescue if this is a few hours, but over much longer time periods will be a problem. It's rare, but not unheard of. Gas will be part of the solution for many years to come.

Transmission loses are 3% per 1000km so moving electricity from morroco to the UK would result in ~6% loss in electricity. Saying > There will be times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine Is just FUD. The wind is blowing and the sun is shining in many places within 2000km no matter where you live

It isn't FUD. This is something the system operators and utilities are taking very seriously and talk about daily.

We have decarbonized a lot in the US already, but we still have a long ways to go. A future of just solar, wind, and storage is still a very long ways off. We'd need a lot of load that is responsive to price and we're just not there yet. That's unattractive politically. People are fine with renewables until all those fixed costs creep into their bills and they're told that they have to go to dynamic pricing to make you hyper conserve electricity during the times you want to use it the most.

Yes, we'll eventually get there, but I strongly believe that gas will still be a big player as a backstop/reserve...maybe with carbon capture technology which runs all out during times of renewable abundance to counter the carbon output of the gas. Will it be practical though?

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#218

Post by audunw »

7thaccount wrote: post #116
rcxdude wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Base load" doesn't really enter into it: you just need storage to make renewables make sense by supplying when generation doesn't meet demand and recharging when demand is less than supply. (or, if you have a cheap "base load" you use storage to even out the peaks and troughs in the same way). Base load is just a somewhat arbitrary line drawn across the lowest point of demand, it's not an actual requirement of the g…

There will be times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Storage can come to the rescue if this is a few hours, but over much longer time periods will be a problem. It's rare, but not unheard of. Gas will be part of the solution for many years to come.

> Gas will be part of the solution for many years to come.

True. But if we’re talking about rare - maybe once a year or two - dunkelflaute, then the gas power plants aren’t actually going to consume much gas at all. And thus the CO2 emissions will become negligible.

Those gas power plants already exist in most industrial countries. They’ll have made their return on investment so using them for backup will be fairly cheap. Especially in the coming age of robots/ drones for inspection work.

To get to zero emission we can just use biogas or hydrogen. If the consumption is low this will be sustainable and financially viable since the fuel cost will be a very small part of the total operating costs, and making the hydrogen will be very cheap since there will be an abundance of days with excess electricity.

So I don’t see that we will actually have a problem w.r.t. energy storage. Battery storage for short term has already outpaced pumped hydro. The transition to EVs already imply battery production capacity on a scale to handle energy balancing for hours or even days.

Trash burning power plants is a good solution for seasonal demand. Yeah, reuse and recycle first. But eventually when materials degrade we should burn it to avoid landfills.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#219

Post by 7thaccount »

audunw wrote: post #218
7thaccount wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Storage can come to the rescue if this is a few hours, but over much longer time periods will be a problem. It's rare, but not unheard of. Gas will be part of the solution for many years to come.

> Gas will be part of the solution for many years to come. True. But if we’re talking about rare - maybe once a year or two - dunkelflaute, then the gas power plants aren’t actually going to consume much gas at all. And thus the CO2 emissions will become negligible. Those gas power plants already exist in most industrial countries. They’ll have made their return on investment so using them for backup will be fairly c…

The industry is starting to say that hydrogen is not going to happen. It's expensive to make even with hydrolysis, explosive, and extremely leaky. That makes transportation and storage really difficult. Also, I think it contributes to warming when enough leaks.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#220

Post by 7952 »

TrainedMonkey wrote: post #173
tedd4u wrote: post #150

From 2 years ago. Large region of Australia running fully on solar/wind/storage for 10+ days. Seems like the focus has to be on storage and continued improvement of grid-scale and rooftop solar and wind. South Australia has just chalked up what is undoubtedly a world first – a run of more than 10 consecutive days over which the average production of wind and solar accounted for 100 per cent of local demand. No other…

[flagged]

That is an apples to oranges comparison. You are comparing r&d on an emerging technology to deployment of a mature technology. Its like spending on developing a new plane to purchasing an existing one.
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