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The rise of batteries in six charts

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Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#211

Post by standardUser »

Terr_ wrote: post #94
Tade0 wrote: post #67

Regarding price, leading manufacturers are already selling at a price below what was always understood as the point where EVs win in terms of economics: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-w... The recent price war in China is a testament to that.

> the point where EVs win in terms of economics If ubiquitous and cheap charging infrastructure is not being priced in, which is still a blocker for many. For example, I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive than any fuel savings. :p

The Biden admin targeted $7.5 billion for exactly this, but apparently the ramp up has been slow so far. They announced $620 million to specific projects just a week or so ago, so it may be accelerating.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#212

Post by nsguy »

axiolite wrote: post #200
Terr_ wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the point where EVs win in terms of economics If ubiquitous and cheap charging infrastructure is not being priced in, which is still a blocker for many. For example, I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive than any fuel savings. :p

> I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive You don't need a garage, just some sort of reserved parking space... There are plenty of weatherproof electrical boxes. It costs a bit of money to have a trench from your home to your car parking area, but far less than buying a house. And that "11…

In most places you can't just put a trench and an electrical box through public spaces. I'd also worry about someone stealing electricity from me. Double the voltage is hopefully ok on the extension cord- just don't be tempted to run higher current. Extension cords are also not recommended for permanent usage.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#213

Post by neltnerb »

axiolite wrote: post #200
Terr_ wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the point where EVs win in terms of economics If ubiquitous and cheap charging infrastructure is not being priced in, which is still a blocker for many. For example, I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive than any fuel savings. :p

> I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive You don't need a garage, just some sort of reserved parking space... There are plenty of weatherproof electrical boxes. It costs a bit of money to have a trench from your home to your car parking area, but far less than buying a house. And that "11…

> You don't need a garage, just some sort of reserved parking space

I don't think the OP was worried about people who have the ability to dig a trench and install underground wiring to a reserved spot in a "car parking area". I suppose it's not technically having a garage but it sure feels like it in spirit.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#214

Post by mauvehaus »

axiolite wrote: post #200
Terr_ wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the point where EVs win in terms of economics If ubiquitous and cheap charging infrastructure is not being priced in, which is still a blocker for many. For example, I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive than any fuel savings. :p

> I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive You don't need a garage, just some sort of reserved parking space... There are plenty of weatherproof electrical boxes. It costs a bit of money to have a trench from your home to your car parking area, but far less than buying a house. And that "11…

A 6-30 NEMA connector still only supplies 30 amps. 30A x 240V = 7200W. Which is under 10hp. You're still looking at an awfully slow charge.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#215

Post by brigade »

audunw wrote: post #188
Spinnaker_ wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The mention of air travel was strange. I wasn't aware of anyone who thought long range flight would ever be electrified. At least not without some fundamental breakthrough. S-curves are hard to predict. Basically every time someone attempts to do it, they are way off. This [0] is a neat paper that addresses the question. We've blown past every single prediction. [0] https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/energy_transition_p…

Why do you mention long range flight? I don't see anything in the article saying batteries will take 100% of the airplane market. It does say batteries will start to take market share in 2030. That's almost certainly true. It's a high priority for the Norwegian company to electrify the short distance airplane network in the next coming years. There are already battery electric planes coming out. And battery chemistri…

Long haul might not be the majority of flights by number, but they account for ~40% of the emissions from commercial aviation (well more accurately, wide-bodies do.) Regional flights that are prime targets to go fully electric only account for around 6% of emissions.

But you're right that starting somewhere is better than not doing that.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#216

Post by sandworm101 »

antisthenes wrote: post #146
sandworm101 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then ditch the local connection and go with off-grid solar. These days, a totally off-grid solution is sometimes the cheaper option. Panels are cheap. Batteries are cheap. Interest rates are cheap. And no monthly minimums. I'm sitting in a house right now, streaming top gear on a 50-inch tv, completely off-grid.

How are you getting internet? Starlink?

Rural wifi system. Waterfront. Relay station on a island about a mile away. From there it bounces to a station on a cellbtower.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#217

Post by wnissen »

mauvehaus wrote: post #214
axiolite wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive You don't need a garage, just some sort of reserved parking space... There are plenty of weatherproof electrical boxes. It costs a bit of money to have a trench from your home to your car parking area, but far less than buying a house. And that "11…

A 6-30 NEMA connector still only supplies 30 amps. 30A x 240V = 7200W. Which is under 10hp. You're still looking at an awfully slow charge.

For a road trip it's slow, for overnight it's plenty fast. A big battery is 100 kWh. Assuming one only uses the middle, from 20 to 80%, that's 60 kWh, which would charge in 8 hours and 20 minutes at that rate. The vast majority of folks spend at least that long in one location every day. How often do you tend to arrive home at 10 p.m. and leave before 6:30 a.m.?

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#218

Post by Mistletoe »

tonymet wrote: post #172
antisthenes wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they? Companies will gladly pocket the difference between what they charge the customers and their $100/KWh bulk price.

Ok what's not working properly then?

Probably unregulated capitalism.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#219

Post by DrNosferatu »

Without log axis, this is all very opaque...

Also, battery-powered >=737-size passenger airplanes (also not so sure about trains and cargo ships) will need at least a revolution in battery technology - batteries won't do, they're just too heavy for the little energy they output:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_energy_stora...

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#220

Post by cyberax »

mauvehaus wrote: post #214
axiolite wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive You don't need a garage, just some sort of reserved parking space... There are plenty of weatherproof electrical boxes. It costs a bit of money to have a trench from your home to your car parking area, but far less than buying a house. And that "11…

A 6-30 NEMA connector still only supplies 30 amps. 30A x 240V = 7200W. Which is under 10hp. You're still looking at an awfully slow charge.

7.2kW is about 30 mph charging speed on regular cars. So you'll gain around 300 miles of range over 10 hours. That's basically a full charge.
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