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YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

justice.gov

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Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#211

Post by nostromo »

throw0101b wrote: post #15
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #3

Critically, he is not going to jail for intentionally crashing the plane. He is being jailed "for obstructing a federal investigation by deliberately destroying the wreckage of an airplane." Had he cooperated, it's plausible to see him getting away with a license revocation and fine. Instead he did this: "In the weeks following the plane crash, Jacob lied to investigators that he did not know the wreckage’s location.…

> Had he cooperated, it's plausible to see him getting away with a license revocation and fine. Reminder of the quotation from Howard Baker (R-TN): “It is almost always the cover-up rather than the event that causes trouble.” Though some would disagree: > There's this old line the wise folks in Washington have that 'it's not the crime, but the cover-up.' > But only fools believe that. It's always about the crime. The…

Survivorship bias...

When the coverup works, we don't hear about it.

Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#212

Post by Dalewyn »

zztop44 wrote: post #104
petsfed wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they're not necessarily equivalent. If option a (0% damage) is equiprobable with option b (100% damage), then yeah, the expectation value is 50% damage. But if option b is 4 times more likely than option a, then the expectation value is 80% (1/5 *0 + 4/5*100 = 80). It's that misapprehension of the probabilities that is the error of the person failing to coverup a crime. Just because there are only two possible ou…

There are three outcomes in this hypothetical: don’t bother with the cover up (50% damage); successful cover up (0% damage); and failed cover up (100% damage). So the calculation is a bit more complicated.

The three outcomes are:

* Successful cover up (0% damage).

* Failed cover up (100% damage).

* Don't bother (100% damage).

So if doing nothing and failing to cover up lead to the same result, you might as well give a shot at successfully covering up. Whatcha got to lose?

It is assumed not bothering is 100% damage because the screw up is apparently bad enough to warrant attempting a cover up.

Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#213

Post by kuchenbecker »

dghlsakjg wrote: post #156
brailsafe wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seemed like a carefully chosen representation of the pdf, here's the quote from the linked 2011 estimated risks > The average adjusted, standardized risk of death reached 10% at an impact speed of 23 mph, 25% at 32 mph, 50% at 42 mph, 75% at 50 mph, and 90% at 58 mph. Risk of death increased approximately linearly with speed for speeds between 32 mph and 50 mph, with an average increase of 2.8 percentage points…

True, I did cherry-pick the data, but pedestrian/vehicle interactions are the most likely to occur in areas where the speed limit is lower. i.e. Most 55mph roads do not have crosswalks at every corner and pedestrians using uncontrolled intersections. Most 25mph roads DO have crosswalks (marked or unmarked) at every corner, and intersections are likely to be uncontrolled for peds. In other words, I am much more worrie…

I think we need to be careful; we can always show a slower speed is safer. I'm hoping to see where the speed limit is x on a road designed for x and someone goes x+5, the marginal danger.

I expect most accidents don't fit this profile and let's say there were 50k traffic deaths in a year, 1k match this scenario and the marginal impact is something like 50. This is pure speculation.

(Strawman) We could clearly limit most traffic deaths by going 5mph at all times. We generally accept the risk of higher speeds.

Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#214

Post by bomewish »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #3

Critically, he is not going to jail for intentionally crashing the plane. He is being jailed "for obstructing a federal investigation by deliberately destroying the wreckage of an airplane." Had he cooperated, it's plausible to see him getting away with a license revocation and fine. Instead he did this: "In the weeks following the plane crash, Jacob lied to investigators that he did not know the wreckage’s location.…

Super curious how they even found out. Did he confess? Anyone got the info?

Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#215

Post by hndamien »

petsfed wrote: post #111
zztop44 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are three outcomes in this hypothetical: don’t bother with the cover up (50% damage); successful cover up (0% damage); and failed cover up (100% damage). So the calculation is a bit more complicated.

"don't bother with the cover up" doesn't contribute to the probabilistic model. If I flip a coin, it can't come up "I didn't flip the coin".

Tangentially relevant, I have found that when people crash into my parked car, they universally attempt to cover up, and flee the scene. Inevitably they are on camera, and they end up paying for damage. This has happened multiple times. However, there is no extra punishment adminstered for the fleeing and the cover up. So (at least in Australia) you are universally incentivsed to try and coverup a vehicle hit and run, than you are to leave details. Sad.

Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#216

Post by blackoil »

zlg_codes wrote: post #199
mozman wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a big black mark on your reputation, it’s rarely worth it. He could have injured or killed someone for a video. Crime doesn’t pay

Tell me what 6 months in a cage and financial ruin will do to teach someone about a victimless crime. Justice is not in play here. The punishment should match the crime.

> Tell me what 6 months in a cage and financial ruin will do to teach someone about a victimless crime.

Don't do victimless crimes. If you have already done it, don't cover it up. And if you have to do it all, don't do it stupid.

Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#217

Post by blackoil »

madeofpalk wrote: post #148
fxtentacle wrote: post #8

For me, the really interesting question is not if he's guilty - I had assumed as much - but if he will come out financially successful. That video had millions of views and a sponsorship deal. Call me a cynic, but it seems that some companies will deliberately break the law and pay the price if it's worth it, so why not independent hustlers.

How much money would you take to spend 6 months in jail?

If I can choose it to be a Norwegian prison, may be 100-200k USD. I always wanted to take a self-discovery retreat but can't commit to it.

Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#218

Post by zlg_codes »

blackoil wrote: post #216
zlg_codes wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell me what 6 months in a cage and financial ruin will do to teach someone about a victimless crime. Justice is not in play here. The punishment should match the crime.

> Tell me what 6 months in a cage and financial ruin will do to teach someone about a victimless crime. Don't do victimless crimes. If you have already done it, don't cover it up. And if you have to do it all, don't do it stupid.

[flagged]

Re: YouTuber sentenced to 6 months in prison for obstructing probe into plane crash

#220

Post by wruza »

madeofpalk wrote: post #148
fxtentacle wrote: post #8

For me, the really interesting question is not if he's guilty - I had assumed as much - but if he will come out financially successful. That video had millions of views and a sponsorship deal. Call me a cynic, but it seems that some companies will deliberately break the law and pay the price if it's worth it, so why not independent hustlers.

How much money would you take to spend 6 months in jail?

Depends on a jail. Some are more like resorts/rehabs compared to others. US jails for 6-month crimes aren’t particularly bad, afaiu. Personally I’d take around $200k too for a US jail, assuming I have nothing to do for half a year and there will be no social/legal consequences that matter.

Disclaimer: I wouldn’t commit a crime to make money/time tradeoff, only a hypothetical experimental exchange with no real danger to anyone.

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