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GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

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Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#211

I find this quite surprising actually. You'd think predicting the weather is mostly a matter of fast computation. The physical rules are well understood, so to get a better estimate use a finer mesh in your finite element computation and use a smaller time scale in estimating your differential equations. Neural networks are notoriously bad at exact approximation. I mean you can never beat a calculator when the issue…

AI/ML's bitter lesson [1] applies again. In this case, the AI model may have learned a more practical model than the one human researchers painstakingly came up with by applying piles and piles of physics research.

[1] http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#212

Related to this, I built a service that shows what day it has rained the least on in the last 10 years - for any location and month! Perfect to find your perfect wedding date. Feel free to check out :) https://dropory.com

Was interested to check this out for Helsinki, but site loads blank on Safari :(

Oh, yea spotted now - I’ll have a look as soon as I’m at my computer, will fix. Until then, I think you’ll have to use it on a desktop - thanks for spotting!

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#213

I find this quite surprising actually. You'd think predicting the weather is mostly a matter of fast computation. The physical rules are well understood, so to get a better estimate use a finer mesh in your finite element computation and use a smaller time scale in estimating your differential equations. Neural networks are notoriously bad at exact approximation. I mean you can never beat a calculator when the issue…

This is essentially the same exact problem as a classic chess playing program, recursively computing all possibilities N moves ahead, and an AI which "groks" the game's patterns and knows where to focus fewer resources with greater success.

This translates especially well to games like Go, where computing all moves is not even pragmatically possible the classic way. But AI beats the best Go players.

Raw models are excellent for establishing the theory, and for training the AI. But... the AI is better at figuring out more effective, precise, and efficient model within itself, based on both synthetic (based on models) and real data (actual weather patterns).

EDIT: And just to point out, this is not just an AI phenomenon. You are a neural network. And "intuition" is the sense of predicting outcomes you develop, without knowing how and why precisely. This is why I frown upon people with academic knowledge who dismiss people with say engineering or other practical experience in a field. A farmer may not tell you why doing things a weird way results in amazing crop yields, but he gets the gains, and when theory doesn't correlate with reality, it's not reality that's wrong, but the theory.

To recap, nothing beats "learning by example". And AI learns by example. Of course, the formal theoretic models that we can collectively share, explain, and evolve over time have their own strong benefits and have allowed us to grow as a civilization. Computers are in effect "formal computation machines". I don't think we'll run AI for long on digital circuits and it's a clumsy workaround. Computers will have analog processing units for AI and digital processing units for cold, hard logic and data. And the combination is the most powerful approach of all.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#215

Similar methodologies are being applied to climate modeling, too. The Allen Institute has worked on it for a while, and has hired quite a few PhDs ( https://allenai.org/climate-modeling ).

How long? The cloud microparameterisation looks really exciting, but 10-year stability for a GCM (and "nearly conserving" water) is not great

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#216
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s difficult to retain top talent if you do not allow them to publish.

How does Apple do it, if anyone knows? Apple is so loathe to keep their potential product plans hidden that AAPL employees aren’t even allowed to have GitHub accounts without mgr approval… but they have to be employing serious researchers, but they’ll never get to publish on volition.

How does Apple do what? AFAICT Apple does not do research, at least at the same level or on the same topics as Google or Microsoft.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#217

I find this quite surprising actually. You'd think predicting the weather is mostly a matter of fast computation. The physical rules are well understood, so to get a better estimate use a finer mesh in your finite element computation and use a smaller time scale in estimating your differential equations. Neural networks are notoriously bad at exact approximation. I mean you can never beat a calculator when the issue…

[dead]

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#218

OpenAI is releasing legitimate AGI, google puts out a weather prediction model lol.

You assuming OpenAI's models are AGI tells more about you than anything else.

If Alan Turing says ChatGPT is an AGI, it's good enough for me.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#220

I find this quite surprising actually. You'd think predicting the weather is mostly a matter of fast computation. The physical rules are well understood, so to get a better estimate use a finer mesh in your finite element computation and use a smaller time scale in estimating your differential equations. Neural networks are notoriously bad at exact approximation. I mean you can never beat a calculator when the issue…

AI/ML's bitter lesson [1] applies again. In this case, the AI model may have learned a more practical model than the one human researchers painstakingly came up with by applying piles and piles of physics research. [1] http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html

That’s only superficially similar to ai’s bitter lesson. The bitter lesson is about methods to achieve results in AI, not about comparing AI methods to non-AI methods.
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