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It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

natesilver.net

211–220 of 258 posts

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#211

I’m still not sure what to believe on that story. It’s not like Israel to intentionally blow up a hospital full of civilians. It’s not unlike them to do it on accident. It’s not unlike Hamas to blow up anything (intentionally or otherwise) and Israel and the US would both probably say they did it whether they did or did not. The story would look the same no matter who did it.

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Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#212
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not sure what will change in a few more days One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released.

Anyone who claims to see through the fog of war without evidence and even sometimes with should be suspect; they have already determined what they want to see and found it. The hardest part is that we are all that way, and we naturally love to see things that confirm our knowledge, biases, suspicions, etc; and hate to be challenged.

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Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not sure what will change in a few more days One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released.

> One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released. I mean, I agree with you. But from 10,000ft, it's going to be mostly the same voices, going one way or the other. Conflicting views will remain prominent. The information war is crazy.

Right. I mean obviously both Israel and Hamas likely know if they accidentally blew up a hospital parking lot. One of them is lying and will still be doing so in a week.

U.S. (and other third party nations) intelligence services may or may not have legitimate knowledge and may or may not be truthful about it and that’s unlikely to change in a week.

What usually happens in these situations is a week later the stories are the same and we still don’t really know what happened.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#214
post #14

It might not have been a rocket either: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/20/2200511/-CAR-BOM...

This is a terrible analysis. Many of the basic observations are wrong - photos from other angles contradict them. Most importantly, a car bomb would blow the doors clean off and scatter debris from the vehicles in a radius nearby. There’s none of that.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#215
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN is still a site about creating businesses, right? The NYT needs to consider its customers, and ensure they find the balance to make its customers happy. For them, there's a fine line between event reporting, "truth", and point of view. It's not political backlash. It's pissing off your subscription base. And that's really dumb.

Okay good, so we’re on the same page that NYT will lie and be dishonest for commercial purposes and isn’t an outlet of journalist integrity.

Absolutely. Your tone comes off as negative, but it's actually the truth and it's better you accept it today.

Welcome to reality, where people get paid by customers to do work.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN is still a site about creating businesses, right? The NYT needs to consider its customers, and ensure they find the balance to make its customers happy. For them, there's a fine line between event reporting, "truth", and point of view. It's not political backlash. It's pissing off your subscription base. And that's really dumb.

As a customer of news, I want the fucking news. If I want people’s opinions I will go to the opinion section

If you're an actual, paying customer of NYT, then I would hazard that you're welcome to tell them you don't like what they're doing by not paying them.

If you're a freeloader that's just talking about generic morals and integrity, welcome to reality. Businesses get paid by giving customers what they want.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#217
post #188

The reason everyone believed it was Israel is because they do it all the time. Today they bombed a church. I find it funny (as long as you ignore that these events involve dead people) that Silver here is up in arms for an alleged misattribution when it happens otherwise every day and nobody is bothered. A novel thought: maybe stop bombing civilians and the chance of you unjustly being accused of bombing civilians go…

Do you mean this Church you can clearly see still standing in the photo? https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/status/1715361491006747073 So you believed a Church was bombed today when in fact it was a building next to it and Church is fine. What does that tell you about sources you use for news? > maybe stop bombing civilians There are missile barrages incoming from Gaza daily, civilians dont shoot rockets. Civilian bui…

I read Reuters [1]. They quote the Orthodox Church itself:

> A Greek Orthodox church in the Gaza Strip which was sheltering hundreds of displaced Palestinians was hit overnight by an Israeli air strike, the Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem said, and Palestinian health officials said 16 people were killed.

> There was no word from the Church on a death toll.

> The Israeli military said a part of the church was damaged in a strike on a militant command centre and it was reviewing the incident.

I do not read anything with a name referencing osint, nor other astroturfers.

There are missiles coming into Gaza also daily. I think it should all stop. Do you agree?

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/orthodox-church-says-it-was-hi...

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really hope that we learn that narratives will sooner or later turn against us if we sacrifice truth for narratives. NYT and WaPo and what not may enjoy their "progressive" narratives now, but the party will not go on forever. Truth matters.

The NYT article persuasively shows the evidence that the PIJ fired the rocket. That's not the far-left narrative.

The initial version of NYT article parroted Hamas' statement that "Israel Strike Kills Hundreds in Hospital", and also used a stock photo that had nothing to do with the hospital.

If this is not narrative, I don't what is.

And I quote the word "progressive" because I don't think that's real progressive. Progressives care about truths, and don't jump to conclusions that fit their belief.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The NYT article persuasively shows the evidence that the PIJ fired the rocket. That's not the far-left narrative.

The initial version of NYT article parroted Hamas' statement that "Israel Strike Kills Hundreds in Hospital", and also used a stock photo that had nothing to do with the hospital. If this is not narrative, I don't what is. And I quote the word "progressive" because I don't think that's real progressive. Progressives care about truths, and don't jump to conclusions that fit their belief.

But not the version that the OP linked.

> If this is not narrative, I don't what is.

A mistake. Note that basically all the wire services made the same mistake. Reputable services corrected the mistake. Disreputable ones didn't. That's what the original article is about.

> And I quote the word "progressive"

And I changed the word to "far-left" for much the same reason. It's not terribly accurate either, but shrug.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And here’s an analysis disputing many of those claims https://www.channel4.com/news/who-was-behind-the-gaza-hospit...

I thought this was a decent video. One of the strongest counterarguments I’ve seen to the failed rocket being the cause of the fireball (rather than merely a coincidence), is the timing. 7 seconds between the rocket breaking up (still unclear if due to failure or interception, someone please correct me if I’m wrong) and impact with the hospital. 7 seconds would certainly not be enough to fall to earth from what appea…

The claim about airburst weapons seems like a massive reach. The tops of the palm trees are unscathed, the nearby buildings have more lower than upper windows blown-out. But if they didn’t make this claim they’d have ruled out all Israeli weapons so they just shoved it in there, despite being vanishingly unlikely. I’m pretty sure this is a self-serving tactic to obfuscate how obviously wrong they were initially and retain the faith of their viewers by making the situation look far more complex to unpick than it really is.
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