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The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

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Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#211
post #209
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is democracy the only acceptable endgame? I worry we're mixing up ends and means. Democracy is a means, and "good government" is the end. In the last few decades, the overall Chinese population has seen dramatic upticks on all sorts of quality-of-life measurements. It doesn't look like an obvious kleptocracy. The surveys we have, regardless of how much it can be claimed they're cooked, indicate the public is broadly…

> Is democracy the only acceptable endgame? In my opinion, yes. Any other system of government means that you're being governed without consent and without a means to remove those in power without violence. In short, any regime without a democratic mandate is an illegitimate dictatorship. No mater how enlightened it claims to be.

A problem is that democracy is hard to build and maintain. Even countries that are showcases for it have a hard time with keeping it stable in some situations.

It requires either a lot of good faith by participants (most participants actually striving for the public good, and voters being able to disagree with an opponent, but still respectfully accept defeat) or systemic guardrails to effectively enforce good-faith style behaviour.

Even with those guidelines in place, some countries are going to have a hard time with the nuts and bolts (How do you safely deliver ballots and count votes with an active insurgency? How do you campaign when only 10% of voters can read? How do you avoid a major ethnic/religious schism just being re-processed through the electoral system?)

It's an aspirational goal, to be sure, but we can also respect that other systems are working reasonably well for some audiences, and in some cases might work better than a "more legitimate" democracy.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#212
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your point? That soldiers die if you shell them?

> What is your point? That soldiers die if you shell them? My point is that the following paragraph doesn't exactly hold up if you consider Wagner to be "slight more competent weak opponents" which I would. > When confronted with slightly more competent weak opponents (e.g. Taliban), the US military performs far more poorly. This poor performance worsens sharply as enemy competence scales.

Leaning on one instance of a massive overkill response against a relatively small group of PMCs and rebels isn't really saying much.

And sure, the US has successfully 'fought' similar 'battles' against groups of Taliban troops before, but eventually lost the war.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>America doesn't claim Cuba as its territory. Where do you think the Guantanamo Bay torture facility is located?

It's a lease, not a claim. US even sends cuba checks for it. Not even sure how you can equate a lease of one bay to claiming the whole island. Besides, If china stopped claiming Taiwan was it's territory and insisted on leasing one small base, I think we could all go to sleep better at night.

>It's a lease

A 'lease' at gunpoint is an occupation.

And the US pays a fixed $4,000/mo, which Cuba doesn't even accept.

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN17200921

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vietnam and Mexico are not "US allies"

define: obey order like Japan

More correctly be economically controlled by the US. See the Plaza accord and the subsequent Louvre accord. Japan never would have signed either if US wasn't able to strong arm them into sinking their own economy. Guns are a hell of a thing, especially when you ban other parties from having them.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not protectionism. Most of that manufacturing is not moving back to the U.S., it's moving to U.S. allies like Vietnam or Mexico, that would also be called third world countries. It really is what it says on the tin. It's a risk for the U.S. to be economically dependent on a state whose government does not share American values, and that is threatening its neighbors with invasion.

Vietnam and Mexico are not "US allies"

I can think of few places that embrace less "American values" than Vietnam. I say that as someone that lived there and now lives in Thailand, ie I'm aware of the tradeoffs of such places.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole existence of EU is to prevent war between countries within the union through making all depend economically on each other. So far it's been quite successful (0 wars so far AFAIK), but of course it's quite early to say. Many of the countries in EU have quite the war history with each other. It's easy to forget that countries like Denmark and Sweden, France and Germany, etc etc used to be bitter enemies with…

Sure. So in your opinion why is it that it worked the countries in Europe, but not for West vs China/Russia?

I think it takes more than money (i.e. culture). There's also a lot less integration between the West and Russia/China than the countries within the EU. In general, I think it takes a lot of time. Actually, the more I think about it the more I think it's quite complex, so too hard to go into all aspects here.

Then of course, as for China VS West, AFAIK there hasn't been any wars for almost a 100 years?

I also think expectations are set too high. Let's not perfect be the enemy of great - some tension is probably inevitable (Greece VS Germany, UK VS rest of the EU). But the trade war between China and the US (as media likes to put it, or at least did for a few years) is a lot (like, infinitely?) better than a real war.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#217
post #211
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is democracy the only acceptable endgame? In my opinion, yes. Any other system of government means that you're being governed without consent and without a means to remove those in power without violence. In short, any regime without a democratic mandate is an illegitimate dictatorship. No mater how enlightened it claims to be.

A problem is that democracy is hard to build and maintain. Even countries that are showcases for it have a hard time with keeping it stable in some situations. It requires either a lot of good faith by participants (most participants actually striving for the public good, and voters being able to disagree with an opponent, but still respectfully accept defeat) or systemic guardrails to effectively enforce good-faith…

I’m afraid I don’t respect that at all.

The “state” does not know best.

The reason that dictators withhold the vote is the same reason they refuse to allow a free press. They are scared of criticism.

If they really knew what was best for everyone it would be obvious and people would vote for them.

…but it ain’t obvious, so the hang on to power by repressing anyone that points that up is up and down is down.

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Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What definition are you using of ally? Normally countries are considered allies when they have formal agreements (treaties) between each other to cooperate for mutual benefit. By this measure, the US and Mexico are definitely allies. Mexico is the USA's second largest trading partner worldwide. Exports of goods and services to Mexico support an estimated 1.1 million jobs (Department of Commerce). Mexico is also the s…

Ally derives from "alliance". US is not part of any alliance with Vietnam nor Mexico. If you want to redefine ally to mean something closer to "partner", then Vietnam is also a "China ally" because it has a good partnership with China. Mexico could also be called a China ally by this loose definition. But if you follow Vietnamese IR, you would know they take geopolitical neutrality very seriously, due to drama of 20t…

You're right that I'm using "ally" informally, to mean that the country would be in the U.S. camp if there is a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China in the future. The U.S. doesn't have mutual defense treaties with either. I'm basing that claim on public opinion - the publics Vietnam loves America and distrusts China. The public of Mexico like both nations, though geography means manufacturing in Mexico can be relied on.

Vietnam: 84% have a favorable opinion of the U.S., 11% have a favorable opinion of China https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2023/07/19/vietna...

Mexico: 60% favorable of U.S., 30% unfavorable. For China, 57% favorable, 33% unfavorable https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/06/27/overall-opinio... https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/27/views-of-china...

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This was the thinking in the 1980s when the US invited China into their global trade network. The US didn't invite china to anything. The US begged, threatened and cajoled china to open their immense and cheap labor force. China had what the US wanted. It was nixon that went to china, not mao that came to the US. > The thinking was they would move away from communism and Russia and towards an open Democracy. That's…

No, I don’t think China was right to crush democracy. It doesn’t flow that their economic success was tied exclusively to authoritarianism. One might argue they would have a stronger domestic consumer economy if they hadn’t.

> No, I don’t think China was right to crush democracy.

History has shown it to be right. All you have to do is look at the soviet union/russia.

> It doesn’t flow that their economic success was tied exclusively to authoritarianism.

No. But it is tied to the crushing of the 'democracy' rebellion.

> One might argue they would have a stronger domestic consumer economy if they hadn’t.

You can argue anything but you can't deny reality. Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ally derives from "alliance". US is not part of any alliance with Vietnam nor Mexico. If you want to redefine ally to mean something closer to "partner", then Vietnam is also a "China ally" because it has a good partnership with China. Mexico could also be called a China ally by this loose definition. But if you follow Vietnamese IR, you would know they take geopolitical neutrality very seriously, due to drama of 20t…

You're right that I'm using "ally" informally, to mean that the country would be in the U.S. camp if there is a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China in the future. The U.S. doesn't have mutual defense treaties with either. I'm basing that claim on public opinion - the publics Vietnam loves America and distrusts China. The public of Mexico like both nations, though geography means manufacturing in Mexico ca…

> You're right that I'm using "ally" informally, to mean that the country would be in the U.S. camp if there is a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China in the future.

The government of Vietnam has emphasized that it will not "choose" between US or China. ASEAN nations in general feel this way. They oppose war itself, and can't be tricked into taking sides in one instigated by Washington (or Beijing).

> Vietnam: 84% have a favorable opinion of the U.S., 11% have a favorable opinion of China

Please actually read the articles you link. This is for Vietnamese American citizens, not citizens of Vietnam. It is utterly unsurprising that immigrants have a overwhelmingly favorable opinion of their new home country, and reveals next to nothing about the PRC-SRV relations .

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