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Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
211–220 of 1001 posts
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#212I remember I was at Microsoft more than a decade ago now and at the time there was a lot of concern about search and how far Bing lagged behind Google in geospatial (maps). After some initial investment in the area I was at a presentation where one of the higher ups explained that they'd be abandoning their investment because Google Maps would inevitably fall behind crowdsourcing and OpenStreetMap. Just like Encarta…
Just anacdotally, I see OSM mentioned a lot, guides for contributing, use in HomeLab and Raspberry Pi articles-- haven't check it out myself in a long time, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's continued growth really is inevitable, or even has a cumulative snowball-ball component
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Midjourney is more popular (from what I'm seeing) than Stable Diffusion at the moment because it's better at the moment. Midjourney is closed-source. Midjourney is easier, its not better. The low barrier to entry has it popular, but it isnt as realistic, doesnt follow the prompt as well, and has almost no customization. SD is the holy grail of AI art, if you can afford a computer or server to run SD + have the abili…
Midjourney is higher quality by a fair bit, from my personal experience and from being near a few of the top early AI artists for a good little while.
Is midjourneys model actually better?
I was under the impression that midjourney was just running a form of SD and it's real secret sauce are the peripheral prompts it injects on the backend along with your prompts.
I could be totally off the mark here.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Midjourney is more popular (from what I'm seeing) than Stable Diffusion at the moment because it's better at the moment. Midjourney is closed-source. Midjourney is easier, its not better. The low barrier to entry has it popular, but it isnt as realistic, doesnt follow the prompt as well, and has almost no customization. SD is the holy grail of AI art, if you can afford a computer or server to run SD + have the abili…
Midjourney is higher quality by a fair bit, from my personal experience and from being near a few of the top early AI artists for a good little while.
Is midjourney still using discord as its primary user interface? That really turned me off.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#215I think from the perspective of a Google researcher/engineer, it must be alarming to see the crazy explosion going on w/ LLM development. We've gone from just one or two weirdos implementing papers (eg https://github.com/lucidrains?tab=repositories who's amazing) to now an explosion where basically every dev and PhD student is hacking on neat new things and having a field day and "lapping" (eg productizing) what Google Research was previously holding back.
And we're also seeing amazing fine-tunes/distillations of very useful/capable smaller models - there's no denying that things have gotten better and more importantly, cheaper way faster than anyone expected. That being said, most of these are being trained with the help of GPT-4, and so far nothing I've seen being done publicly (and I've been spending a lot of time tracking these https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kT4or6b0Fedd-W_jMwYp...) gets close in quality/capabilities to GPT-4.
I'm always rooting for the open source camp, but I think the flip-side is that there are still only a handful of organizations in the world that can train a >SoTA foundational model, and that having a mega-model is probably a huge force multiplier if you know how to take advantage of it (eg, I can't imagine that OpenAI has been able to release software at the pace they have been without leveraging GPT-4 for co-development; also can you distill or develop capable smaller models without a more capable foundational model to leverage?). Anthropic for example has recently taken the flip side of the "no moat" argument, arguing that there is a potential winner-take-all scenario where the lead may become insurmountable if one group gets too far ahead in the next couple years. I guess what we'll just have to see, but my suspicion, is that the crux to the "moat" question is going to be whether the open source approach can actually train a GPT-n++ system.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#216The memo sounds like spin because it is. The surface argument is equivalent to arguing that no one could sell closed source software because open source exists, and that open source must also be commodotized (oddly, Apple and Microsoft are doing just fine). The implied argument is that Google Research was doing fine giving away their trade secrets and giving negative value to Google because it was going to happen any…
What does "spin" mean?
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#217This is easily among the rare highest quality articles/comments I've read in the past weeks, perhaps months (on LLMs/AI since that's what I am particularly interested in). And this was for internal consumption before it was made public. Reinforces my recent impression that so much that's being made for public consumption now is shallow and it is hard to find the good stuff. And sadly, increasing so even on HN. As I w…
Hi Sai, do you have an email address (or other preferred private message) I could contact you on? Feel free to send it to the relay email in my profile if you want to avoid putting it publicly (or reply here how to contact you).
I'll ask my first question here below, so that if you have an answer it can benefit other HNers, and I'll save the other line of thought for email.
Do you happen to have a list of other highest quality articles on AI/LLMs/etc that you've come across, and could share here?
It's not my field but something I want to learn more about, and I've found it hard to, without knowing much about the specific subjects within AI that would be good to learn about makes it hard picking what to read or not.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#218I remember I was at Microsoft more than a decade ago now and at the time there was a lot of concern about search and how far Bing lagged behind Google in geospatial (maps). After some initial investment in the area I was at a presentation where one of the higher ups explained that they'd be abandoning their investment because Google Maps would inevitably fall behind crowdsourcing and OpenStreetMap. Just like Encarta…
In terms of data, OSM is so far ahead of Google maps in my experience. The rendering is much better too. What's not there is obvious and easy to use tooling that anyone can interact with. I mean, there might be, but I don't know about it.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#219This is easily among the rare highest quality articles/comments I've read in the past weeks, perhaps months (on LLMs/AI since that's what I am particularly interested in). And this was for internal consumption before it was made public. Reinforces my recent impression that so much that's being made for public consumption now is shallow and it is hard to find the good stuff. And sadly, increasing so even on HN. As I w…
Well yes, generally in the business world all the "good stuff", the really smart analysis, is extremely confidential. Really smart people are putting these things together, but these types of analyses are a competitive advantage, so they're absolutely never going to share it publicly. This was leaked, not intentionally made public. And it all makes sense -- the people producing these types of business analyses are wo…
Sort of like sports recruiters.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's what a lot of people think until they run Vicuna 13B or equivalent. We're just 5 months in this, there will be many leaps.
Yes there will, that's the problem HN User Minimaxir is talking about. It will only get less and less expensive for Microsoft in terms of cost. And more and more effective for Microsoft in terms of results delivered. How do you compete with free? That's the question. The previous internet experience has already shown us that "also be free" is not really a sustainable or even effective answer. You have to be better in…
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