Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead • Hacker News Board

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#211

Post by zimpenfish » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:40 PM UTC

jstanley wrote: post #188

sudhirj wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this seems like more of a problem than vague statements about AGI. We're still in the scope of ML - ChatGPT can't play chess, for example, and a self driving model can't write Haiku. An AGI would be able to do all of them. It seems much more likely that a fleet of autonomous (in the name of cutting costs) war machines will be created with relatively simple ML models that work in intended (or otherwise) ways to…

I played chess against ChatGPT just yesterday, and it got into a winning position against me. After 24 moves it tried to play an illegal move and then when I told it that's illegal it played a bad move, and after that it didn't manage to find any more legal moves (I gave up after asking it to try again about 10 times). But it's very close to being able to play chess. My prompt was: > we're playing chess. only send ch…

What does it do if you play illegal moves?

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#212

Post by innagadadavida » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:40 PM UTC

KRAKRISMOTT wrote: post #117

innagadadavida wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a little harsh. Hinton trudged along with neural networks through the coldest AI winter and helped create the conditions for OpenAI to have all the raw ingredients needed to cook up something powerful.

If you need to build an airplane, would you rather consult Newton, the Wright brothers, or a modern aerospace engineer? Inventing a field and snatching up the low hanging fruits doesn't mean somebody would be able to consistently create leading edge output. Most of the advances in deep learning are due to hardware scaling, and the success of a few very specific architectures. Yes credit's due where credit's due, but…

There are multiple dimensions here - fame and fortune at the very least and whether it is localized or global in scope.

It is still winner takes all, but if you look at the overall landscape, there are plenty of opportunities where you can have an outsized impact - you can have localized fame and fortune (anyone with AI expertise under their belt have no problems with fortune!)

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#213

Post by bitL » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:41 PM UTC

greatpostman wrote: post #98

My honest take is a lot of these famous academics played almost no part in the developments at openai. But they want the limelight. They aren’t as relevant as they want to be. In many cases, they were directly wrong about how ai would develop

GPT basically showed that scalable brute-force trumps clever theoretical models which makes many academics salty.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#214

Post by eternalban » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:41 PM UTC

neilk wrote: post #170

meh8881 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of incentives, I don’t see any particular reason to think he has a more informed view than other experts on the trajectory of AI. He’s made several incorrect bets (capsule networks). I’m sure he’s smart and all. His contributions were valuable. But he’s not special in this particular moment.

Your viewpoint is fascinating. So the inventor of backpropagation, Turing award winner, Google researcher, mentor to the CTO of OpenAI, doesn’t have any special insights about AI and the tech industry that’s forming around it? He might as well be some guy off the street? Who, in your opinion, _does_ have enough context to be worth our attention? Because if you’re waiting for Sam Altman or the entire OpenAI team to sa…

Authority figures will not matter. This technology, like nuclear weapons, will be pursued to the utmost by all actors capable of marshalling the resources, in secret if necessary. (After all, the 'Hydrogen bomb' was debated pro/con by established authorities, including Oppenheimer and Teller. Did that stop their development?)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermonuclear_weapon

https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Dark-Sun/Richard-Rhod...

Today:

Germany's relevant minister has already declared at G7 that Germany can not follow Italy's example. "Banning generative AI is not an option".

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/G-7-in-Japan/Banning-gener...

US Senate has a bill drawing the line on AI launching nuclear weapons but to think US military, intelligence, and industry will sit out the AI arms race is not realistic.

https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/block_nuclear_la...

China's CPC's future existence (imo) depends on AI based surveillance, propaganda, and realtime behavior conditioning. (re RT conditioning: We've already experienced this outselves via interacting with the recent chatbots to some extent. I certainly modulated my interactions to avoid the AI mommy retors.)

https://d3.harvard.edu/platform-rctom/submission/using-machi...

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#215

Post by kgwgk » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:42 PM UTC

lucumo wrote: post #189

sudhirj wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this seems like more of a problem than vague statements about AGI. We're still in the scope of ML - ChatGPT can't play chess, for example, and a self driving model can't write Haiku. An AGI would be able to do all of them. It seems much more likely that a fleet of autonomous (in the name of cutting costs) war machines will be created with relatively simple ML models that work in intended (or otherwise) ways to…

> ChatGPT can't play chess, for example Out of pure curiosity I tried this a while back. At some point it tried to move a knight from d4 to f6, and it was the most stubborn and obstinate child when I tried to correct it. It was the best fun I had playing chess in a few decades. Excerpt: _Me:_ Can a knight move from f6 to d4? _ChatGPT:_ Yes, a knight can move from f6 to d4, as long as there are no pieces blocking its…

> However, as we saw earlier, it is possible for a knight to move from f6 to d4 via an intermediate square, such as e8 or d5.

GPT stands for Goal Post Transportation.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#216

Post by renewiltord » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:43 PM UTC

neatze wrote: post #99

“The idea that this stuff could actually get smarter than people — a few people believed that,” said Hinton to the NYT. “But most people thought it was way off. And I thought it was way off. I thought it was 30 to 50 years or even longer away. Obviously, I no longer think that.” Calculators are smarter then humans in calculating, what does he mean by that?

Sibling comment is correct to prompt you to at least try an LLM first. It's unfortunately the equivalent of lmgtfy.com but it's true.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#217

Post by mtlmtlmtlmtl » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:44 PM UTC

1024core wrote: post #179

stareatgoats wrote: post #137

We are barely scraping the surface when it comes to understanding the future dangers of AI. Geoffrey Hinton is uniquely positioned to point out where the dangers are, and from what I've gleaned from interviews one of his main concerns atm is the use of AI in the military: fully autonomous military robots might not be possible to curtail. The tried and tested method is international agreements. The current focus on ar…

> The tried and tested method is international agreements. You really think actors like North Korea, Al Qaeda, etc. will adhere to International agreements?!?

I'm not terribly worried about Al Qaeda or DPRK having any sort of capability to develop planetkilling AI, now or in the future. Nukes and Rockets? Sure. Anyone can build a centrifuge, and anyone can build a cylinder with explosives on it.

But intelligent killer robots? Please.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#218

Post by renewiltord » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:46 PM UTC

Verdex wrote: post #93

dan-g wrote: post #69

Full New York Times piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/technology/ai-google-chat...

Okay, so is this some grammatical style that I'm just unaware of: > where he has worked for more than decade I would have expected an "a" or something before decade. Meanwhile, over at theverge they have: > employed by Google for more than a decade Which is what I would have thought would be the grammatically correct form. Okay, so the overall structure of the article is "man does thing then decides he maybe should n…

My experience with the NYT (I subscribed to both the NYT and the WSJ at the same time) is that most of their stuff is AI rewrite quality. But they occasionally have centerfold investigative pieces that are very good.

I imagine this is how it is: they have an army of junk journalists churning out content and then a few really good ones who do the tough stuff. It's probably not economical otherwise.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#219

Post by euroderf » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:46 PM UTC

lucumo wrote: post #189

sudhirj wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this seems like more of a problem than vague statements about AGI. We're still in the scope of ML - ChatGPT can't play chess, for example, and a self driving model can't write Haiku. An AGI would be able to do all of them. It seems much more likely that a fleet of autonomous (in the name of cutting costs) war machines will be created with relatively simple ML models that work in intended (or otherwise) ways to…

> ChatGPT can't play chess, for example Out of pure curiosity I tried this a while back. At some point it tried to move a knight from d4 to f6, and it was the most stubborn and obstinate child when I tried to correct it. It was the best fun I had playing chess in a few decades. Excerpt: _Me:_ Can a knight move from f6 to d4? _ChatGPT:_ Yes, a knight can move from f6 to d4, as long as there are no pieces blocking its…

So is this how hallucinations form ? It proposes something half-baked, and then later refers back to it as fact ?

Re: Geoffrey Hinton leaves Google and warns of danger ahead

#220

Post by yogthos » Mon, May 01, 2023, 3:46 PM UTC

ncr100 wrote: post #149

yogthos wrote: post #118

How is this different from what we have now? His immediate concern is that the internet will be flooded with false photos, videos and text, and the average person will “not be able to know what is true anymore.” maybe it's just me, but seems like this isn't a problem with technology but rather with how we organize society He is also worried that A.I. technologies will in time upend the job market. Today, chatbots lik…

Apparently Indian politics is rife with false generated news stories about opponent political parties (This is according to a news article I skimmed this year, sorry I don't have any links or reference.) So it's happening, now

That's also the case in US politics as well, and has been for a while now.