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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

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Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#211

Post by mikestew »

6nf wrote: post #167
thwayunion wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If climate models were predicting the temperature of your city on March 21, 2120 then your intuition here would be wise. But that is not at all what these models are predicting. They are predicting global average annual temperatures and other gross, planet-scale statistics. "Average annual global temperature in a given year" and "temperature in my city tomorrow" are fundamentally very different types of predictions.…

Predictions so far have been terrible compared to what actually happened.

Yes, turns out the predictions were too conservative.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#213

Post by taylodl »

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #190
taylodl wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we don't know the impact To your point, we know quite a bit, and it's pretty bad. Will 10% of the world's population perish? Most likely. There's already a population die-off in progress in many areas of the world as the birth rate continues to decline. People don't have to drop dead for the population to die off, they can simply not be born in sufficient numbers to replace the existing population. As for those who a…

Very few things give me as much hope as reading this kinda of doom spam. To know the people pushing this are so detached from reality gives me a lot of confidence we'll be all right.

Are we reading the same history books and watching the same global news events? Hope isn't the strategy that's going to get us through this crises.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#214

Post by myrmidon »

davesque wrote: post #186
fwlr wrote: post #182

I do wish someone would just acknowledge we’ve been getting “final warnings” as well as predictions of catastrophe every few years for decades now. Just recognize that I have to force myself quite hard to take this seriously. I do trust the science! But I trusted the science in 2017 and in 2012 and in 2009 and in 2004 and in 2000 and so on. I am making myself trust the science this time, again , and selfishly I would…

I'm with you on this. And I am absolutely the furthest possible thing from a climate skeptic. If anything, it's just a recognition that this kind of communication from official sources is clearly ineffective. The climate crisis is never ever going to be solved by spontaneous collective action or by appeals to collective action. People will continue to do whatever it is they have to do to get their daily or yearly bas…

In a democracy, this means that people in aggregate need to care more about climate change consequences in the future than wealth/disposable income right now.

That is simply a hard sell, always has been, and most of us are to blame for the consequences...

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#215

Post by guerrilla »

makerofspoons wrote: post #145

The comparisons between the AR5 and AR6 are alarming. Now, under no emission scenarios other than low and very low which we are not tracking close to, we reach +2C at or just before 2050. Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration: https://sciencenorway.no/climate-climate-change/deadly-heat-...

Do people in capitals not understand or believe this? What do rich people (some of whom control large parts of the media) plan to do exactly? Die? Bunker? I mean seriously.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#216

Post by p0pcult »

taylodl wrote: post #174
p0pcult wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Oh my Sweet Summer Child Yeah, this person offers nothing but condescension. Immediate downvote.

Just wait until our upcoming reality hits the conspiracy theorists and religious fanatics. Climate change is going to herald in Dark Ages 2.0. I suppose the upside to that is eventually there will be an Enlightenment 2.0 also, and hopefully we'll get there faster than it took the first time. BTW, Dark Ages 1.0 wasn't even the first time humanity has been through a dark age... ...honestly, it pays to study history to…

I don't disagree with the existential threat proposed by climate change. I just think that you're being a condescending jerk, which will ultimately only impede progress toward your goals.

You're not going to convince people of your cause by calling them ignorant. Jesus.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#217

Post by ratboy666 »

mrmanner wrote: post #101
johnnymorgan wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point he is making is the disconnect between models and reality. Also when are people held accountable for their models being wrong and the output that comes from that. Climate models has a terrible track record and have failed to materialize over and over again. We have environmental crises all over the place which we should be focused on. The two are not the same thing and climate activism seems to not care abo…

But the models aren’t wrong. They’re surprisingly accurate. Some media reporting has been alarmist, choosing absolute worst cases and stating them as fact. But in general, the changes we’ve seen so far are in line with predictions and there’s no reason to be more skeptical than normal of this science. (As a side note, the resource extraction required to run a petrol engine is also not very green and often connected t…

No they are not "surprisingly accurate". I have actually made more money in direct bets AGAINST climate models. From 1970 to present. Indeed, the challenge I make to climate doomsayers is simple: make one prediction in the 5 year out timeframe and stick to it. I'll simply take the opposite. So far, I have won... every time. Let me have a look at my trading accounts: cenovus up, pembina up, taiwan semi up, everything else down. And that is the current recession. Now, I am worried about china, so I may trade the tsm. The only "surprise" for me is that alcoa is down. I'll ride that one.

The "no oil" people may be right; that would make me a horrible person. But, make the prediction -- I'll "convert" if it comes true. Science for the win.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#218

Post by taylodl »

Retric wrote: post #163
taylodl wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we don't know the impact To your point, we know quite a bit, and it's pretty bad. Will 10% of the world's population perish? Most likely. There's already a population die-off in progress in many areas of the world as the birth rate continues to decline. People don't have to drop dead for the population to die off, they can simply not be born in sufficient numbers to replace the existing population. As for those who a…

Population declines on the other hand are expected because birth rates have been dropping for hundreds of years. This is a good thing you can’t support infinite growth on a finite planet. Suggesting global warming is the cause completely ignores these long term trends. Peoples quality of life globally has been consistently improving and that’s unlikely to change with global warming. China had one of the worlds larges…

Peoples quality of life globally has been consistently improving due to the "green revolution" transpiring during the 1960's, a revolution that's imperiled by GCC.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#220

Post by guerrilla »

toxik wrote: post #24
Rygian wrote: post #8

For anyone interested in what 1.5C represents, I can't recommend enough the Climate Fresk [1] exercise. It's not just the droughts and floods, the heatwaves, the changes in birds, insects, crop yields, … Include permafrost melting and releasing greenhouse gasses, civil unrest in populated areas that won't be livable anymore, unstable food production, and quite a few other causes and consequences. It's a feedback loop…

What I always find so hard to believe is that, knowing how well we can predict weather and other complicated systems, climate change science somehow is able to make 1/10 centigrade precision predictions on time horizons of decades and centuries.

Why would you be confused about this? Temperature of a function of energy. We're talking about a global average temperature. Energy is being captured and retained. That raises the global average temperature. The specifics don't matter. Predicting the weather on the other hand is very complicated because you're asking what specifically will happen in a specific place. The variables going into that are many and even if measured extremely accurately, it's not good enough because weather is chaotic.
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