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Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

goodreason.substack.com

211–220 of 1001 posts

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#212
post #6

> Meanwhile, renters are desperate. They’re begging for housing prices not just to slow, but to fall. I have a friend who is a head chef at a decently popular bar and restaurant on Broadway in Capitol Hill, Seattle (very trendy part of town if you aren't familiar, steep commercial rent). He lives in a 400 sq ft studio and is barely, barely making it from one paycheck to the next. I am sitting on a 2.6% interest rate…

Yeah, man. My friend lived in Capital Hill back in the early 2000s and was able to keep ahead of the rent on his comically small apartment just working part time

Nowadays, though, Seattle residents not making obscene tech money have to either live in a submarine-esque cramped environment or spend 2-4 hours commuting every day

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#213
"Upside" problems/opportunities that take a generation to solve/understand (w.r.t a family context):

1. value of going to college

2. investing in real estate

3. creating a profitable business

Once your parents achieve one of these, in a lot of cases, kids learn via osmosis.

"Downside" problems that are also usually generational:

1. creating/maintaining a strong relationship with spouse (not getting divorced)

2. staying healthy - no type 3 diabetes etc.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#214
post #58
post #6

> Meanwhile, renters are desperate. They’re begging for housing prices not just to slow, but to fall. I have a friend who is a head chef at a decently popular bar and restaurant on Broadway in Capitol Hill, Seattle (very trendy part of town if you aren't familiar, steep commercial rent). He lives in a 400 sq ft studio and is barely, barely making it from one paycheck to the next. I am sitting on a 2.6% interest rate…

What sucks is a lot of young renters with steady jobs can afford to pay off a mortgage month to month, but they just can't afford that down payment (especially the 20% needed so as to not need to get mortgage insurance)! I was in that position for a while. Every time it seemed like I could afford to put that money down, the housing prices went up! It took a handful of years of renting cheap places (with roommates), l…

I don't think that necessarily is a a bad thing. Just because someone can theoretically afford a mortgage payment now its pretty difficult to predict say 5+ years out whether or not that steady job will hold, especially if they're young and have a short credit history. The down payment adds a cushion for that risk. There's less inherent risk to renting, you're looking at a commitment of 6 months to a max of maybe 2 years for most least terms.

Being too risky with handing out mortgages is partly what lead to the housing bubble in 2008 afterall.

If they're really certain their job will be stable long term PMIs shouldn't really be a deterrent, most PMI can be terminated after meeting 20% in equity.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#215
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I see this I have to laugh. If you live in Tokyo, I'd love to hear your anecdotal experience. I have stayed and visited japan for the last 35 years, and find all of the "Tokyo is so affordable and buildable" is hilarious. The breathless articles I read about it leave out fundamental aspects (the incredible density, the absolute destruction 70 years ago, the corruption [especially in Shinjuku], the size of…

So why is the population of Tokyo steadily increasing while the population of Japan overall is decreasing? Is it all just foreigners explaining 2+% growth rate in recent years despite them making up less than 3% of the cities total population? Or are the people stuck in 100 year mortgages just having lots more kids than everybody else?

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Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#216
The problem is zoning and regulation and animal agriculture, imho.

Hear me out.

Just 1% of habitable land is urban and built-up land (1.5 mil km2). Buy a land (native Americans didn't believe that anyone can own the land, that land belongs to everybody - maybe there was something true about that) and try to build a house on it.

So many regulations - where you can build, what you can build, how it would look, what materials are acceptable, etc.

Try to build a house from hempcrete, for example. A material used for several thousand years in Europe, but now it's much harder to build and to certify such house (due to regulations and approval processes), that everybody builds with bricks and wraps their house in mountains of polystyrene instead. That doesn't make sense .. you have to build a house from a material with abysmal insulation properties, and then wrap it in several layers (10 maybe) of additional materials just to have a working shell. Then stuff it with plastic stuff inside - that for example lowered time the buildings are fire resistant from 15 minutes to mere 2-3 minutes now (IIRC).

Or try to build something with earth pressed blocks. Also pretty common historical method from the area where I'm from, very comfortable living, breathable, low-cost, ecologic. That's something almost never used now, although it has a lot of pluses compared to the "modern" ways of building.

Try to purchase a land and build a block of flats on it. No, the building office will say, no such houses in the area, just single family homes here, single floor, minimum land 800m2. No way to build small flats or houses with those minimum area requirements.

We don't have enough place to build new homes, you say? We use just 1% of all habitable land for buildings and stuff. What about those 37 mil. km2 we use for "livestock" [0]? I for one can't wait for the times when the majority will switch to plant based diets. This is just one of the many things that would solve ...

[0] https://ourworldindata.org/land-use

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#217
post #9

This doesn't even touch on the fact that you will always require housing, so you can never truly liquidate your primary residence. At best, you can borrow against it. At worst, you sell it once and rejoin the rental market.

This is actually why as a homeowner, I'm not particularly bothered by the value of my house dropping. Don't get me wrong, it's not exactly fun to watch its price tag drop, but the supposed dollar value of the house isn't "real" unless I'm looking to sell, which I'm not going to be doing unless I'm changing living arrangements, whether that be buying a different house or renting. Its value to me is that it's 1) a home…

One problem with the value dropping (assuming you're still paying off the mortgage): lenders can freak out and call the entire mortgage due and foreclose on your home. They did this extensively after the subprime mortgage issue.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#218
I've been making this argument for many, many years and it's interesting to see the tide turning from "What are you, an idiot? Some kind of communist?!" to "" to "You may have a point".

One tipping point, sadly because as the article points out there are many more valid criticisms, seems to be foreign ownership. Enough foreign ownership in certain markets finally brought this to the forefront as locals were priced out en masse and people looked for someone to blame. At least the issue is being discussed because it has been a serious problem for a long time.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#219
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You will be surprised how much good plumbers make in the USA. You probably used a bad example. Source: I know my trusted plumber makes well over six figures a year and he cannot take all calls. I asked him once if he has problems generating leads and he smiled saying "I have too much business that I turn people away". He is a "master plumber" which these days is not easy to get certified for in many states. He told m…

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Master plumbers are still plumbers, they still get down and get their hands dirty. My guy is also a master plumber, and often works alone. When he does have help, he's often doing the hardest work, the other guy is just handing him pipes and tools.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#220
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Normative statements don't hold much weight for justifying why things are the way they are.

Downpayments need to be substantial because the owner needs to have skin in the game. Otherwise the borrower could walk away from the house and the mortgage with very little downside.

The whole point of interest is supposed to account for that risk.

People buy cars all the time that cost a decent fraction of what a house does, and nobody bats an eye when they finance 100% (or more) of the value. And a car depreciates and moves. The bank knows where to find the collateral for a mortgage, and the value generally appreciates.

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