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It's clear Caroline Ellison has turned against him. Stephanie Avakian, former SEC enforcement chief, is representing her in NY. I'm guessing they wouldn't have been able to file charges this quickly without Caroline becoming a cooperating witness.
She is also VERY well connected to the SEC. It wouldn't surprise me if they gave her a sweetheart deal.
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It's clear Caroline Ellison has turned against him. Stephanie Avakian, former SEC enforcement chief, is representing her in NY. I'm guessing they wouldn't have been able to file charges this quickly without Caroline becoming a cooperating witness.
Can you explain what makes this so clear?
But you have to look at the larger picture: The Federal prosectuion conviction rate is 95%. The Federal government is very good at getting prosectuions in cases they choose to prosecute. They tend to plea out cases that are riskier. A key tactic in doing this is they get one or more cooperating witnesses. That witness gets a better deal in exchange for their testimony that pretty much turns the case into a lock.
It's classic Prisoner's Dilemma. The first to take the deal is always the best off. Lawyers know it so if their clients are at risk, they'll tend to push their clients to be the one to take it. Ellison will most likely have direct knowlege of the situation and will be able to produce evidence such as emails and texts.
Importantly, she's not the main guy. It's SBF who opened up custodial assets to be used in that way (or so it seems). That's the primary offence here. It's a bit like how in a murder case the cooperating witness might be a driver or a witness but unlikely to be the actual shooter. They may get embroiled in a felony murder conviction otherwise thanks to the US-specific pecularity (and some, including myself, would call a miscarriage of justice) of felony murder but that's another story.
So Ellison fits the profile of an ideal cooperating witness, there's supporting circumstancial evidence and the fact that Federal prosecutors indicted SBF so quickly further suggests a cooperating witness with firsthand khowledge or they'd otherwise be mired in subpoenas for communications, conducting interviews and otherwise building a case.
A criminal indictment represents the end of the investigation, not the beginning. SDNY has already built their case to their satisfaction. People seem to think an arrest happens and the investigation continues. That's not how Federal prosecutions works.
Why did he stay in the bahamas? Was he allowed to travel?
I can't imagine why he wouldn't flee. If i was committing ~9 figures worth of fraud, I would have huge stashes of 1oz gold bars buried in countries without extradition like Vietnam and venezuela. He seems like he had no exit plan thought up. Madoff got 150 years in prison, and i dont see any reason why SBF would get any less.
Alright, well, now that that's done - let's go find all those people in the past threads who were saying things like SBF will never be arrested.
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Hm... does that mean she gets away scot-free? Not sure that's fair, she seems very complicit.
2nd in command is a great position to be in when defecting to the government, but probably not scot-free. Expect a year or two in jail vs 3-5 for SBF.
Much sooner than I expected. Figured it'd be a couple of years before the AG was secure enough in their case to bring charges. This is MUCH faster than Madoff or Holmes. Then again, he's been much more out in the open about everything. He pretty much laid the prosecution's case out to the public for them.
From the WSJ:
https://archive.ph/2022.12.12-111902/https://www.wsj.com/amp...
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What
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No, look forward and get Binance and the Tether guys.
What did Binance do wrong again? I don’t consider having faulty blockchain analysis software at a time (2018) when most blockchain analysis software wasn’t very good a crime. And the Iranians they supposedly aided all used VPNs and hid the fact that they were Iranian. I think the best the government will get out of Binance is a DPA but that’s just me.