I just survived a round of layoffs at someplace mentioned. I think this is overthinking it or looking for a conspiracy theory. Layoffs aren't deeply calculated or hand-wrung over in advance. They're somewhat arbitrary and ambiguous but purposeful: to stop the hemorrhaging of cash. There's no clean or perfect way to do a layoff precisely in limited time, so they happen in discrete units of reduction in particular area…
It was pretty straightforward and un-conspiranoic: The CEO got us all execs together and showed us the P&L which showed that we had 10 month runway. It also showed that (as in most companies) the highest burn rate was from payroll. Then he mentioned that we had to expand our runway to 18 months. Which meant cutting in various places (including no free sodas). Finally we agreed to cut payroll in 10%-15% , which would have a strong impact on the runway.
And that was it... pretty straightforward.