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How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

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Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#211

Post by WillPostForFood »

mywittyname wrote: post #62
the_lonely_road wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a pointless battle. There is a US election this year so there is zero chance a recession will be admitted until mid November regardless of facts on the ground.

Data for Q3 will be released on Oct 27 (before the election). And current estimates for ~2.0% growth. Thus, the country will technically be "out of a recession" by election time. I wonder if these people claiming that we are "technically in a recession" will suddenly start saying that economy has recovered come Oct 28.

Estimates for Q2 were for 2.3% growth, and were wrong. Thus, you actually don't know if the country will be out of recession until the real numbers come out. Maybe wait for the actual numbers before worrying about your opponents reaction?

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-d...

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#212

Post by onos »

RC_ITR wrote: post #204
didibus wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like non-officially most people think of a recession simply in terms of like are less and less people able to make ends meet and less and less able to afford the same luxuries as they did before.

Sure, and by those metrics: We are at an all-time high in terms of people employed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UysZ People are consuming more than ever before (even accounting for inflation): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOQs Now, to be my own Devil's Advocate, real wages are falling (though they are at about where they were pre-pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/f…

Tldr things are great, vote dem.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#214

Post by throwawaylinux »

RC_ITR wrote: post #117
nostromo wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the US, a recession is defined by NBER after the fact. This isn't true. There is no "official" declaration of recessions in the US by law. Yes, some federal officials will reference NBER, but that's not the same thing. Bar far, the most common definition used worldwide is two quarters of negative growth -- and by that definition we're already in a recession. NBER itself has never not declared a recession after t…

> In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity. While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NB…

Still, let's not pretend the narrative has been recently "adjusted".

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-appears-to-misundersta...

"Recessions are generally defined as being six consecutive months of negative economic growth. By this definition, there is no such thing as a two-month recession."

Obviously that is a very widely used and well accepted definition of recession including among experts and industry journalists. The idiotic thing is that's recently being claimed is that's not an "official" definition of recession, as though that makes any difference or makes someone incorrect for using the definition. A government's definition of a word gives it no more weight than anybody else's definition of that word, outside the duties of that government. Arguably the two-quarters rule is the preferred definition because it is more widely used and known. And let's be honest, that definition certainly would be put to use by its most fervent deniers today if there were different politicians in office.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#215

Post by RC_ITR »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #214
RC_ITR wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity. While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NB…

Still, let's not pretend the narrative has been recently "adjusted". https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-appears-to-misundersta... "Recessions are generally defined as being six consecutive months of negative economic growth. By this definition, there is no such thing as a two-month recession." Obviously that is a very widely used and well accepted definition of recession including among experts and industry journa…

>EDIT2: And, just to cut you off at the pass, here's the archive from 2019 with the same exact text: https://web.archive.org/web/20190831041001/https://www.bea.g...

Why did we have a recession in 2000 if that's the rule then? Does 2020 not count since it was 4 months?

And what's your comment on the fact that this is the first 'recession' where the impact can be largely explained by net exports?

Maybe the narrative changed because the conditions changed?

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#216

Post by barry-cotter »

tomrod wrote: post #128
Jensson wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that case why wouldn't they try to influence the election? It depends on what kind of people sit there, but most academics favor democrats. So I don't see how that statement gives us a good reason to believe that they aren't taking one side here.

Economists don't favor democrats but rather seek reality, and the argument that conservative viewpoints are somehow not present in universities, especially in economics departments where Marxists econ profs and Austrian econ profs dine at the same tables and chair the same candidates, is both hilarious to people who have lived experience there and somewhat sad for those same because to communicate reality to folks es…

One of your professional colleagues disagrees, feeling that academia generally is partisan

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=...

and that economics in particular is too

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-...

Economics is less partisan than any other social science, with only three times as many Democrats as Republicans but academia in general is merrily burning its reputation for truth seeking and Economics won’t escape. Not being as bad as psychology or sociology where all conservative academics could meet in a small lecture theatre is a low bar.

https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_p...

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#217

Post by [deleted] »

onos wrote: post #212
RC_ITR wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and by those metrics: We are at an all-time high in terms of people employed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UysZ People are consuming more than ever before (even accounting for inflation): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOQs Now, to be my own Devil's Advocate, real wages are falling (though they are at about where they were pre-pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/f…

Tldr things are great, vote dem.

[deleted]

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#218

Post by adam_arthur »

Hermitian909 wrote: post #193
adam_arthur wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it's decreasing. The amount of people required to maintain an application of a given size continues to drop significantly over time. Something like Docusign, once built out, could be maintained by a handful of people using serverless components. Same thing with Twitter and pretty much every other application.

Interestingly, as a side effect of this, the marginal gains on the most skilled engineers continues to increase. For certain classes of work it is very difficult to hire even at the top of the market. There are positions my company would happily pay a million/yr to fill and simply cannot find anyone who meets the requirements.

Yes, so the median wage declines, and the wage of the most productive increases. You'll have 20% or fewer of engineers doing most of the work.

The amount of impact an individual can have has never been higher

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#219

Post by RC_ITR »

onos wrote: post #212
RC_ITR wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and by those metrics: We are at an all-time high in terms of people employed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UysZ People are consuming more than ever before (even accounting for inflation): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=UOQs Now, to be my own Devil's Advocate, real wages are falling (though they are at about where they were pre-pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/f…

Tldr things are great, vote dem.

Irrelevant to the conversation and not adding anything meaningful other than revealing your biases.

Re: How much have tech layoffs affected engineers vs. other departments?

#220

Post by throwawaylinux »

RC_ITR wrote: post #215
throwawaylinux wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, let's not pretend the narrative has been recently "adjusted". https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-appears-to-misundersta... "Recessions are generally defined as being six consecutive months of negative economic growth. By this definition, there is no such thing as a two-month recession." Obviously that is a very widely used and well accepted definition of recession including among experts and industry journa…

>EDIT2: And, just to cut you off at the pass, here's the archive from 2019 with the same exact text: https://web.archive.org/web/20190831041001/https://www.bea.g ... Why did we have a recession in 2000 if that's the rule then? Does 2020 not count since it was 4 months? And what's your comment on the fact that this is the first 'recession' where the impact can be largely explained by net exports? Maybe the narrative c…

I think you're making this more difficult than it is.

1. Different people have different definitions of recession. Two quarters is probably the most widely used and known one, so it's perfectly valid to use, but not everyone may agree so you can see differences.

2. People have ulterior motives for calling a recession. Even the same dishonest person will use different definitions at different times according to who can be blamed or credited. And there are a lot of dishonest people in government and corporate media.

So put all that aside. "The US is in recession." That's a perfectly reasonable statement that anybody can understand in context even those who have a slightly different definition where it doesn't fit.

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