Well it's October 4th. Isn't there the whole month for people to post? We should at least wait until the end of the month..
Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
211–220 of 318 posts
Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
Crypto itself, or at least the bubble, was an unintended byproduct of low interest rates and lax securities enforcement. The low interest environment is intended to spurn the monied rich into investing in productive businesses, but "innovators" instead invented crypto assets and lauded them as the second coming of Mansa Musa, siphoning nearly a trillion dollars out of the productive economy. Clever crypto "innovators…
> Now that the government itself is providing that outlet Inflation adjusted nothing the government is selling is earning other than I-bonds (individual yearly buy limit of $15K). With Trump's energy output restriction deal with Saudi and others expiring inflation may slow, but the situation of gas in Europe over the winter seems poised to keep it up (CPI doesn't include energy directly, but it feeds back in).
> Inflation adjusted nothing the government is selling is earning other than I-bonds (individual yearly buy limit of $15K).
Inflation-indexed long term US treasuries are now earning positive rates of interest. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII30 -- it's not necessarily a high rate (currently 1.74% after inflation with a 30-year term), but when you have millions or billions to invest, it's certainly not nothing.
> (CPI doesn't include energy directly, but it feeds back in).
CPI does directly include energy, including gas [1]. You may be thinking of "core CPI" which excludes energy and food prices.
Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#213Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#214I don't know the intention of the author, but I see like a lot of "Look, it's happening! The economy is going down!" posts pop up these days. Which may be true, but it can also be a self-fulfilling profecy if everyone is doing that on all platforms. Which would be a shame. I'm not saying HN and other platforms should censor (/ take action) either. It's just a thought I have on this subject, and I don't know if there…
If data upsets you it may be worth thinking about why. It’s just saying that hiring appears to be cooling off and that’s showing up in other places too (layoffs/freezes at FAANG, the BLS job opening stats just this morning: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-openings-post-bigg...).
This isn’t some insidious campaign to crash the economy by showing that the economy is finally cooling off. Getting inflation under control is good long term but it will be painful.
Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
It feels like _something_ is happening, but it's not quite the recession that people are fearing. The US is somehow at the lowest unemployment rates we've seen and people are saying it's all going to collapse which just feels off. If the US hits 5% unemployment that simultaneously worse off than where we are but still a solid economic position. My pet theory is that everyone is just tired, so damned tired, and seeps…
Tired of (or from) what? With the major exception of the pandemic/remote work, the world is not markedly different than it was in 2013 or 2003. What makes it seems like 2023 is so different?
Why exclude the pandemic/remote work?
But to exclude it for a bit, my personal, super anecdotal and biased view is that those years were very different.
2003 had low hope for a better future, but there was a lot of action in the fallout of 9/11. It felt like we were at least trying, even if it ended up being a horrible try.
2013 I felt hope for a better future, but there wasn't a lot of action to make that a reality.
2023 and there's zero hope for a better future and we're doing nothing about it.
We need at least hope or action.
Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#216also consider the whole chain -- From the layoffs I've observed Recruiters were some of the top laid off roles. Less recruiters means prioritization of efforts. HN Who's hiring is probably a low priority platform. (Recruiter's boss doesn't know what it is, hard to instrument for tracking metrics) If you really want to know how many jobs are out there it's better to index and crawl all the companies jobs page directly…
"HN Who's hiring is probably a low priority platform." This has always surprised me. At several companies I've suggested to the hiring folks that they post on HN and I've rarely seen it happen. But IMHO, although you may not get a lot of candidates that way, I would imagine the signal/noise ratio is high, relative to the average recruiting channel. (Would be curious to see that (dis)confirmed.)
> (Recruiter's boss doesn't know what it is, hard to instrument for tracking metrics)
Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Look, it's happening! The economy is going down!" I agree this can be a self fulfilling prophecy. A lot of larger tech companies were announcing hiring freezes or restructuring months ago to get ahead of the downturn. But I also think we could restate the quote above in ways that are actually true. For example, a lot of these posts are startups and monetary policy is slowing or shrinking the money available for VC.…
> A lot of larger tech companies were announcing hiring freezes or restructuring months ago to get ahead of the downturn Alternately, I think a lot of companies are using the spector of a recession as cover for reducing unproductive or unnecessary headcount. Over-hiring is an issue that's difficult to correct. If you do a round of layoffs, the perception is that you're in financial duress. This can affect investor an…
Even if that is the case with some, it would still have the self-fulfilling prophecy component.
Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#218No post body was provided.
Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#219also consider the whole chain -- From the layoffs I've observed Recruiters were some of the top laid off roles. Less recruiters means prioritization of efforts. HN Who's hiring is probably a low priority platform. (Recruiter's boss doesn't know what it is, hard to instrument for tracking metrics) If you really want to know how many jobs are out there it's better to index and crawl all the companies jobs page directly…
Companies job pages are very vague estimates of actual offering, especially at startups were everyone is incentivized to post more than existing to look good.
That is a very good point that I had actually forgotten. Yeah tons of jobs are fake, sometimes to boost how you look, sometimes to fake out the competition (let them overhire and burn up their runway.
Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months
#220I don't know the intention of the author, but I see like a lot of "Look, it's happening! The economy is going down!" posts pop up these days. Which may be true, but it can also be a self-fulfilling profecy if everyone is doing that on all platforms. Which would be a shame. I'm not saying HN and other platforms should censor (/ take action) either. It's just a thought I have on this subject, and I don't know if there…
“The vibes are off” is the best way I’ve heard this explained: https://www.npr.org/2022/09/15/1123281909/vibecession-vibes-...