Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages • Hacker News Board

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#211

Post by locallost » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:11 PM UTC

I read the whole thread. At one point he goes on and on how France is shaky because their nuclear plants are offline caused by corrosion issues etc. On the very next tweet he blasts Germany for prematurely shutting down "the most reliable energy source nuclear". Well if they're reliable, why is France in this world of hurt right now?

I agree about one thing, and that it really is a perfect storm of issues, and that the winter will be very rough. I hope it brings a needed change in a lot of ways.

The part about renewables requiring trillions in investment to replace nuclear I didn't get at all - they're the cheapest possible solution. New nuclear that is needed would be even worse. If he thinks they're expensive, don't know what else is there. My guess is that renewables will continue to be a huge winner, especially in this crisis. Even Macron came out a couple days ago and said France needs to build more renewable capacity and ease regulations and remove road blocks. That was a huge shock for me.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#212

Post by eldenwrong » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:12 PM UTC

The_Colonel wrote: post #194

koheripbal wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you honestly suggesting this is a fabricated crisis?

Isn't it obvious? Gas is not sanctioned, yet the supply of Russian gas to Europe was significantly reduced. After many b***t excuses, Russia admitted that the gas supplies won't be resumed until the sanctions are lifted. So yes, the crisis is manufactured by Russia to produce a political leverage. And part of that strategy is of course spreading FUD through various media.

Europe sanctioned Russia so they retaliated? It was obviously expected and politicians were okay with that outcome. It was not a 4d chess move

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#213

Post by panick21_ » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:13 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #10

It is so funny to see all those anti-renewable lobbiests come out of the woods everybtime something happens with regard to energy that can be, somehow, blamed on renewables. Previously it was the fossil fuel lobby, now it is the pro nuclear lobby. All predict doom, everytime. And all of those fail to properly analyse the way electricity is priced on the European market, and then start looking at those special causes,…

> now it is the pro nuclear lobby.

Its hilarious that a real button support for nuclear is claimed to be driven by a nuclear lobby.

The scary Nuclear lobby of Greenpeace imagination has never existed and was always tiny and almost totally incompetence.

But it just so happens that these dangerous underground force comes out of nowhere during this energy crisis to destroy renewables.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#214

Post by kennend3 » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:14 PM UTC

koheripbal wrote: post #123

bombcar wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if it is cost effective going forward to install two meters and panels on every house with one being “essential” and the other being “intermittent” so the power company has the option of blacking out the intermittent boxes only. I’d rather have all my computers, lights, etc shut down than my whole house.

Something similar was done in Canada about 40 years ago with the high-usage lights installed in every home (usually next to the washer/dryer). If the light was on, people paid significantly more. It was very very effective at reducing peak consumption.

This doesnt make sense, at least not for Ontario.

Prior to "Time of use" billing (and having to upgrade all our meters in like 2016) i dont see how this was possible.

The old meters simply measured how much power was used, they had no idea of WHEN it was used.

The electric company would go house to house and "read the meter" once a month and report this back to billing. Based on your usage a bill would be produced and sent to you.

How/when would a "high usage light" come into play?

I grew up in a house which was over 40 years old, there was no "high-usage" lights near the waster/dryer. Mostly because homes built back then had the waster/dryer in the basement and any "usage lights" would be ineffective.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#215

Post by panick21_ » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:15 PM UTC

retinaros wrote: post #17

hef19898 wrote: post #10

It is so funny to see all those anti-renewable lobbiests come out of the woods everybtime something happens with regard to energy that can be, somehow, blamed on renewables. Previously it was the fossil fuel lobby, now it is the pro nuclear lobby. All predict doom, everytime. And all of those fail to properly analyse the way electricity is priced on the European market, and then start looking at those special causes,…

lower than expected capacity because macron wanted to go away from nuclear five year ago. what do you think the shareholders of french nuclear and energy company wanted when they heard that? to reduce cost, hires, maintenance. the government is to blame for everything happening in france for abidding to the green party that were fed russian propaganda about renewable energies such as solars that just have renewable t…

Not to mention that next generation nuclear in France was also killed by the Left and the Greens in the 90s. France could have many Superphénix by now.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#216

Post by perlgeek » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:16 PM UTC

Havoc wrote: post #59

Scary, especially in light of the coming winter. This does seem to be ignoring some positives though - German putting some nuclear shutdowns on hold and France is looking like they might get their fleet back on track by beginning 2023 after they sorted out their corrosion issues. UK just fasttracked fracking (sigh) and sizewell C nuclear plant seems to have gotten the go ahead. Quite unfortunate that the writeup is o…

> German putting some nuclear shutdowns on hold

... or at least we "want" to do that, but it turns out that some operators of nuclear power plants have delayed some much-needed maintenance in light of the upcoming shutdown, so at least Isar 2 doesn't seem to be ready to operate longer.

And all the Bavarian politicians have "accidentally" failed to disclose this until far too late (in Bavaria, CSU is the dominant political party, and they aren't in power at the federal level right now, so don't feel compelled to play nice).

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#217

Post by panick21_ » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:18 PM UTC

pjmlp wrote: post #152

lostlogin wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Petrol prices rising are part of this crisis too. Most EVs are charged over night, when grid usage is low. Doesn’t that maximise the use of a strained system?

Most countries need their electrical heaters and cooking stoves as well during the night.

Yes but lights are turned off, factories are turned off, trains aren't running and many other things as well. And most people don't cook during the night.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#218

Post by playingalong » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:18 PM UTC

bitschubser_ wrote: post #40

bombcar wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if it is cost effective going forward to install two meters and panels on every house with one being “essential” and the other being “intermittent” so the power company has the option of blacking out the intermittent boxes only. I’d rather have all my computers, lights, etc shut down than my whole house.

isn't it much "easier" to implement some kind of progressive price on energy? first 1000kw/h are "cheaper" than market (per person in household), next 500kw/h double the price, next 500kw/h doubles again etc... For things like heatpumps you usually have an extra meter with special day/night tarifs (in germany), the rest is metered as general consumption. I always wonder through how much energy my peers burn, we have…

As a response the houses will be artifficially split into two. What counts as a household is not that deterministic.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#219

Post by retinaros » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:18 PM UTC

sofixa wrote: post #33

retinaros wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lower than expected capacity because macron wanted to go away from nuclear five year ago. what do you think the shareholders of french nuclear and energy company wanted when they heard that? to reduce cost, hires, maintenance. the government is to blame for everything happening in france for abidding to the green party that were fed russian propaganda about renewable energies such as solars that just have renewable t…

> because macron wanted to go away from nuclear five year ago Source? The plan was to reduce nuclear share to ~50%, not "go away from nuclear", which still required building a ton of new reactors to replace those close to their end of life. Furthermore, the nuclear reactors are owned and operated by EDF, which has always been majority state owned and is in the process of being renationalisated. Shareholders were neve…

tomorrow your boss says to you he’s gonna reduce headcount in IT by 50%. what is your boss gonna do short term? is he gonna plan how he is gonna manage your promotion when you will be one of the few not fired or is he gonna focus on firing the 50% he needs so that shareholders are happy with stock price?

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#220

Post by tomwojcik » Sun, Sep 25, 2022, 6:18 PM UTC

jotm wrote: post #116

fxtentacle wrote: post #12

Most likely, Italy and eastern Europe, who are net importers. Germany is a net exporter, so they would only have blackouts out of solidarity.

What Eastern Europe? Romania (pretty balanced and not reliant on gas) and Poland (mostly coal, locally mined) are self sufficient. Baltics maybe?

Re Poland locally mined - i dont know wtf went wrong but we went from having huge reserves to buying from India within a year... A lot of homes rely on coal to be available by the time the winter comes and apparently they are left with nothing. People stand in line for a few days (literally, husband/wife/kid rotation in the queue) just to get the ticket for the coal. The ticket guarantees you to get the coal once the previous orders are filled. My friends waited in such queue a few weeks ago. Eta for coal delivery for a private household if you went through all this hussle: April.