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Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

fortune.com

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Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#211

Post by mountainriver »

vsareto wrote: post #155
mountainriver wrote: post #148

I have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI. I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution

None of the AI stuff really solves things like affordable housing or keeping wages up with inflation (or addressing inflation). It's not going to magically give us more energy without environmental impacts, or settle conflicts between countries. Building another AI-marketed SaaS only benefits people who don't need those benefits. In all likelihood, it'll just give us more bullshit jobs.

It might, you can't possibly know that. If the coming AIs make humans twice as productive, then we've boosted our output tremendously.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#212

Post by mountainriver »

CSMastermind wrote: post #158
mountainriver wrote: post #148

I have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI. I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution

> I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution Tell me more. I'm willing to be persuaded by this position but I'm skeptical. What specific AI breakthroughs do you think will happen on what timelines?

Just take AI assisted programming, if it makes devs twice as effective at their jobs then its massively increased the output of our most profitable industry.

This is just one field, AI will impact the output of most fields

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#213

Post by mountainriver »

jawns wrote: post #166
mountainriver wrote: post #148

I have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI. I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution

AI will only be a positive revolution if it's not putting a large number of people out of jobs, but merely increasing their productivity. Or, if it DOES put a lot of people out of jobs, it would be good for them to have some ownership over the AI, so that it's the labor force who reaps the benefits, not just the corporations. The bad scenario is mega-corps replace lots of humans with a fleet of machines owned by the…

Yeah its a concern there may be a transition period. I have the take that it will just make everyone way more capable and we can up our dreams

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#214

Post by mountainriver »

kory wrote: post #180
mountainriver wrote: post #148

I have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI. I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution

I think the economy is hitting real, hard barriers in resource extraction, energy usage, and number of people that buy and sell. That’s where stagnation comes from. The real economy will stagnate. AI can automate some work and intensify future technological discoveries, but that won’t make energy any cheaper, clean our environment, create more humans, or make resources as easily extractable as they were 100 years ago…

Yeah there are hard limits but I think AI will help us be way more efficient and probably optimize reusability.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#215

Post by mountainriver »

jdhn wrote: post #187
mountainriver wrote: post #148

I have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI. I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution

>We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution I was told that the "internet of things" would bring about unparalleled gains in manufacturing, and then that very quietly went away. I'm not holding my breath for AI to deliver on what IoT was supposed to do.

AI isn't IOT, its the greatest invention we will have ever created

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#216

Post by caeril »

altdataseller wrote: post #111
tppiotrowski wrote: post #106

Personally, I wish it was as rewarding building or creating something as it is to invest in the stock market over the past decade. If you have capital it makes more sense to put it into stocks than opening a coffee shop or computer repair shop, etc. If the stock market stops paying out maybe we'll go back to trying to create value instead of profiting from value created by others.

It's getting more rewarding to put into Treasury Bills, when it's paying 4% in interest as of today.

That's a really good yield, so you're only losing 4.3% annually on a real basis.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#217

Post by tunesmith »

andrewf wrote: post #205
tunesmith wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This one isn't bad: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/wpqsno/lumpsum_... And here's a question. Say you have a windfall and you're deciding whether to lump sum or DCA it. And you decide to DCA. So therefore, why wouldn't you liquidate your entire investment portfolio and also DCA that the same way?

If you liquidate your portfolio you're going to have to recognize (pay tax on) capital gains.

Good point, but how about for retirement portfolios?

I'm trying to point out the irrationality of it - after all, I don't think people desist from liquidating only for tax/fee reasons. "I would sell everything today and DCA back in over the next year if not for those pesky taxes and fees! (shakes fist at sky)"

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#218

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

datavirtue wrote: post #100
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So one of the worst long-term periods in history - the S&P was still ~50% better than cash. What else is a passive investor gonna do?

Grow some balls and start a business?

What if you already have a business with enormous profits and don't want to spend them all, but invest some?

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#220

Post by Buttons840 »

llampx wrote: post #170
bidirectional wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ackman said hell was coming, was appropriately hedged using instruments which would appreciate when hell did indeed come, and made $2bn on his hedge which offset the losses in his equity positions. He didn't net profit $2bn.

He appeared on TV crying while his firm was unrolling their hedges and buying stock for the rebound. Never trust media.

This is the first time it's occurred to me that any "market-expert" who is widely listened too has an inherent conflict of interest. By misleading the public they can increase their own gains.
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