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Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

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Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#211
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh. Maybe. They haven't developed a clean sheet supersonic turbofan since the 80's. This Boom "Overture" thing is going to need an entirely new design for long duration super-cruise; Boom needs engine people with a lot of depth.

Safran's M88 should be sufficient for Boom's 1/3rd scale demonstrator I think? Then at least they'd have something to show other manufacturers and investors.

At least as of last public discussion, the plan was to use off-the-shelf GE J85s for the demonstrator.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#212
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh. Maybe. They haven't developed a clean sheet supersonic turbofan since the 80's. This Boom "Overture" thing is going to need an entirely new design for long duration super-cruise; Boom needs engine people with a lot of depth.

Safran's M88 should be sufficient for Boom's 1/3rd scale demonstrator I think? Then at least they'd have something to show other manufacturers and investors.

We are talking about economic war, FCPA, not "French cheese eating surrender monkeys".

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#213
post #3

That seems like it would slow things down a bit, which is a problem in a higher rate world. Not sure business travel is going to stay on the same trajectory either. Of course weirder stuff is happening: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/israel-ba... Banning 4 engine aircraft from Israel means no more 747 freighters or new leisure supersonics.

This was probably to protect the flag carrier from a very attractive and more comfortable rival who were rumored to be considering a380 flights to the country

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, I figured I would get this response but writing software e.g. your IBM, Yahoo, and Microsoft example is much easier and faster to do than building a cutting edge, physical, supersonic commercial jet. To build Google, all you needed was a computer, and a new approach/algorithm to solving web search. Software companies are much easier to disrupt than physical product companies. As others have pointed out the Tesla…

I did include SpaceX as well, and I'm not sure one can find a better example than that, but there are others as well: - Cruise + other self driving car companies (obv also a bunch of software, maybe even software focused, but looking at Waymo, they developed all their own hardware, LIDAR tech etc.) - Commonwealth Fusion + a bunch of other fusion startups (obv they haven't really gotten to a product yet one could argu…

SpaceX, yes. But I think some of these other examples work against your point. Yes, some of them have raised lots of money (or even sold for lots of money), but revenue for Cruise + Commonwealth Fusion + Heart combined (I haven't heard of Canvas) is about $0 so far. It's yet to be seen if any are viable businesses even if they have already invented cool shit. To your point above, Boeing is not in the venture capital business. Their investors most likely want dividends and stock buybacks, not capital intensive moonshot bets.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#215
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also know nothing about the subject, but just to play devil's advocate here, doesn't SpaceX show that a startup could potentially solve hard physical engineering problems more effectively than established incumbents?

It does, but a supersonic personal jet is a much bigger feat of engineering than a rocket that lands. Most people don't appreciate that. We had landing rockets in the 80's, but Boom was trying to do several things that are completely new. SpaceX's real technology is about launching the rockets cheaply, not re-using them (which is only part of the problem). And SpaceX started with engineers who knew a lot about the do…

> We had landing rockets in the 80's, but Boom was trying to do several things that are completely new. SpaceX's real technology is about launching the rockets cheaply, not re-using them (which is only part of the problem).

And we had supersonic passenger jets in the 60's. But they weren't economically viable. I'd argue that Boom is trying to do exactly what SpaceX is doing for rockets, which is to make supersonic air travel make economic sense. Any engineering that they need to do is really towards that goal.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#216
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Once you've gone supersonic the drag actually drops a lot. Certainly the drag coefficient drops, does it actually drop fast enough to counter the v^2 and see total drag drop as velocity increases?

I think so, many planes are like this: the transonic regime has the highest drag. It's not as simple as v^2, you have to consider the compressibility effects (wave drag where the pressure wave moves along with the plane, like a bow wave on a ship). Flying faster also means you can fly higher in lower density air, so the indicated airspeed (proportional to density * v^2) is reduced.

> It's not as simple as v^2, you have to consider the compressibility effects (wave drag where the pressure wave moves along with the plane, like a bow wave on a ship).

I think it is that simple. Those effects are the reason the drag coefficient is changing, you don't need to account for that twice.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#217
post #138
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just the "off the shelf" argument. Which has just fallen apart because RR doesn't have the product and doesn't want to build it. You're right, that if Boom could just buy their engine it would be better for Boom. Boom can't just buy their engine though, and now it looks like their company is going to fail because they decided to build the easy part and not the hard part.

Off the shelf means buying something already available for sale. Paying someone to develop something for you is the opposite. Going back to the analogy from before, you can go to companies which specialize in chip design and development, and you can pay them to design a chip that will meet your specifications and make it in small quantities. It is economical for these companies to keep the technical staff and equipme…

RR is not some contract designer. It is one of less than a handful of engine designer/manufacturers that could do it. This is more like asking some combination of Intel/AMD/Nvidia to design a custom chip and TSMC/Samsung to build it for you.

Sure RR would love to do preliminary investigation. But what is the opportunity cost for RR to design and manufacture these engines versus devoting those resources to engines for Boeing and Airbus? How many of each does it project it can sell? What harm would it do to RR if it were to fall behind P&W on jet engines for commercial jets?

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He must either be talking about the Apollo Lunar Module which first landed on the Moon in the 60s (but was not "landing a booster", much less on earth.), or more likely he's talking about the Delta Clipper which was in the 90s (and also not a rocket booster.) Probably the latter, because there are some low-brow skeptics on reddit and youtube who inexplicably seem to think the Falcon 9 is a stolen Delta Clipper with a…

I kind of take ofense with the low-brow reddit sceptic :-) Obviously, a Falcon 9 is not a reused DC-X. The technologyvto land a booster was already there before, it wasn't invented by SpaceX and was discussed as far back as the 60s. SpaceX made it possible, which in itself is quite an achievement. That nobody else tried so is due to the fact that there were not enough launches to make it economically viable (I found…

But you are underestimating the challenge here. There is a difference between the landing and getting an orbital rocket first stage into a position to even attempt a landing.

The actual landing with propulsion is actually the easier challenge if you have an engine that can hover.

However SpaceX had to figure out how to get do supersonic retro-propulsion and basically making a heat-shield out of fire to protect the rocket on its way down, then navigate a terrible air-frame at high speeds and then do a never before tried hover-slam maneuver with an overpowered rocket engine.

That is very, very different from a DC-X that just goes up a bit comes straight down and then can do a slow landing.

I know some of the old space companies did some studies, you can also find a very long detailed post by Tori Bruno on the topic. The problem is, these studies and opinions are no necessary correct and in fact we know that they were very much incorrect. The assumptions both technical and economical these companies were making were simply not correct, at least not with the right engineering and investment behind it.

The study that you are talking about was from the 2010ish time right, not the 90s or something like that?

Arianespace/ESA totally fucked up with Ariane 5, instead of designing a booster that can dominate the launch market they designed a very niche booster and were forced to relay on Soyuz and couldn't beat Proton in many markets.

Partly this was because of Hermes and as they design Hermes it became bigger and bigger and so did Ariane 5. And then Hermes was canceled and Ariane 5 remained oversized.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#219
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but no one could argue that Tesla is a Theranos-like operation. Arguments can be made about whether Tesla's valuation is reasonable, but it's certainly a legitimate car manufacturer.

Tesla certainly delivers cars. But there are parts of it that are quite Theranesque, especially the self driving: * Re-sell third party products for a while ("Until our own offering is ready"). If the recently posted self parking video is to be believed, the in-house products are still not on par with the third party predecessors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA * Pre-sell your product years before it's r…

Tesla has literally opened up its FSD Beta an allowed people to film it. We have more insight into its behavior in a huge range of different driving conditions then we have for anything else.

They have even change the terms&conditions to make it clear that beta testers were allowed to share.

Beta testers have shared lots of not-flattering things and Tesla has not 'aggressively suppressed' them.

They have asked for the outright fraud and slander campaign conduct by a competitor to be removed.

> * Avoid objective evaluations of your product.

Like what?

Tesla Vision (no radar/no lidar) has just been objectively tested:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-y-earns-5-star-safety-ratin...

There are no objective evaluations for FSD as nobody has actually made general full sell driving work.

But you can get the Beta and do any kind of 'objective evaluations' you want. You can even publish all the details, amount of interventions and so on of all your drives.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#220
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but no one could argue that Tesla is a Theranos-like operation. Arguments can be made about whether Tesla's valuation is reasonable, but it's certainly a legitimate car manufacturer.

What about the times when they announced different types of car models, promised delivery in a year, took pre-orders, and then didn't deliver (and still haven't)? That's pretty Theranos-y behavior.

Delays in the car industry are pretty normal and you can get your reservation money back if you cancel.
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