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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#211

Post by SkyMarshal »

melling wrote: post #69
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

The Fed learned under Volcker back in the early 80s that prioritizing killing inflation is the best way to ensure medium and long-term economic and employment growth, even if it causes lower growth or recession in the near-term. That’s likely the playbook Powell is operating under now.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#213

Post by twoxproblematic »

weakfish wrote: post #195
NeverFade wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, the NBER is the institution that calls recessions. The NBER has never once failed to call two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a recession. It's a foregone conclusion at this point. But wait, according to the mainstream media now, we shouldn't listen to the NBER either, they're all just a bunch of "white economists": https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-...

I mean, CNN is basically the left version of Fox News, it’s not representative of center media.

Do you have an example of "center media"? Asking because I earnestly want some of that.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#214

Post by remflight »

Nimitz14 wrote: post #200
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

1947 saw two Qs neg growth amd no recession. This is something that everyone who is actually interested in the topic will have heard of because it's been mentioned repeatedly by the experts. And yet this thread is filled with confident statements by people who clearly have put zero effort into forming their opinion. Sad.

1947 was 75 years ago. Taking 1 example per lifetime doesn’t constitute any sort of evidence to the contrary.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#215

Post by frankharv »

selimthegrim wrote: post #165
thepasswordis wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think this is the type of comment, which the administration also keeps making, actually means? The subtext is: these companies are doing well, and that's a bad thing . How do you think that effects their desire to bring down costs for consumers? And also: yeah, their profits are up, because due to the actions of the administration people are uncertain about their ability to buy this stuff in the future, a…

These companies are not going to invest in new production anyway, they are going to return dividends to shareholders. You are setting up a straw man.

After watching sleepy Joe cancel the Keystone pipeline who in their right mind would invest in new infrastructure?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#216

Post by kgwgk »

jeffbee wrote: post #138
causi wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$11.5 billion in profits on $103.06 billion in revenue is a profit margin of less than nine percent. That doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me.

Oil is the textbook commodity and the expected profit margin on commodities is ~zero. That's the nature of a commodity: a good so interchangeable, with so many competing producers, that the profit margins are inevitably minimized.

By ~zero do you mean "covering just the cost of capital over a full cycle"? This is a textbook example of a capital intensive and cyclical industry.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#217

Post by actusual »

BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #7
iamricks wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...

Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?

What do you mean they aren't being ridiculed? Biden's approval rating is literally worse than Trump's was -> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#218

Post by engineer_22 »

NeverFade wrote: post #177
tootie wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That definition was only ever a rule of thumb. The fact is, you can't define it. It's like setting a temperature that is officially "cold". The current economic indicators are almost completely unprecedented in the growth is weak, inflation is very high and yet employment remains historically strong. As much as GDP represents the broadest indicator of economic health, if you're looking for a headline to apply to the…

In the US, the NBER is the institution that calls recessions. The NBER has never once failed to call two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a recession. It's a foregone conclusion at this point. But wait, according to the mainstream media now, we shouldn't listen to the NBER either, they're all just a bunch of "white economists": https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-...

CNN headline: Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight White economists you've never heard of

Is this a joke? It's like something you'd overhear at brunch from a group of co-eds

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#219

Post by smiddereens »

txsoftwaredev wrote: post #212
swayvil wrote: post #110

Quoted post unavailable.

Female, according to Merriam-Webster: "having a gender identity that is the opposite of male" I would be incredibly offended if I was an actual woman.

No post body was provided.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#220

Post by pclmulqdq »

ConceitedCode wrote: post #210
safog wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has a technical recession ever not resulted in an actual recession as declared by NBER?

Great question! Not that I'm aware of (EDIT: sseagull provided a good example in 1947). To be fair, I can't think of any time where we've seen 2 quarters of negative GDP growth while maintaining "full" employment and wage growth. This is an unusual recession if it is a recession.

This is a recession. During a recession, the economy tends to lose 10% of its employment or more. Usually this is from loss of jobs. This time, inflation has cut everyone's pay by between 10 and 30% depending on who you ask. The CPI says 10%, but a lot of necessities, like energy and food, are up a lot more.
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