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Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

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Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#211

Post by rsynnott »

FullStackAda wrote: post #196
deltree7 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bingo! I'm always astonished by the amount of cluelessness displayed by HN crowd -- supposedly at the cutting edge of things. Like all other platforms, about 5% of the posters at HN provide extremely valuable content. The rest just parrot current popular pitchfork (anti-capitalism, anti-corporate, anti-advertisments -- stuff that I can get from TikTok in a more entertaining format).

And yet you're reading HN? It's not an anti-capitalism stance to call Metaverse idea for what it is - trying to sell an elephant. Capitalism is not about going all in on the craziest ideas ever. What is their bet anyway? What users' need are they trying to address or create? Is this a new and better video game platform? Even if they are successful, VG are still very niche, especially compared to their social network…

> What users' need are they trying to address or create?

They're essentially trying to _create_ a new need in the minds of consumers, I think.

The trouble for them is, this rarely works. This is quite different to, say, the iPhone; when the iPhone showed up, the market was already inclined to think "it would be nice if there was a good phone that could do more stuff than my Nokia"; it wasn't specifically demanding an iPhone, but an iPhone was a good solution for what it was demanding. It's not clear that anyone is demanding a 'metaverse'.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#212

Post by panick21_ »

adammarples wrote: post #206
FullStackAda wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU is pushing for interoperability of messengers apps, so there is a potential of disruption in this area. I am not saying that Whatsapp is toast, I just assume if interoperability is implemented, some companies would be highly motivated to bite into Meta's user base, right when Meta would have to think about some unsexy Whatsapp monetization.

It's baffling that Google and apple between them don't run messaging. Almost all of the messages are sent from their devices.

Them not getting together to just fix this issue universally is stupid. Apple is naturally secretive (and profit from status-quo) and non cooperative and google is just a bunch unplanned running around.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#213

Post by deltree7 »

FullStackAda wrote: post #196
deltree7 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bingo! I'm always astonished by the amount of cluelessness displayed by HN crowd -- supposedly at the cutting edge of things. Like all other platforms, about 5% of the posters at HN provide extremely valuable content. The rest just parrot current popular pitchfork (anti-capitalism, anti-corporate, anti-advertisments -- stuff that I can get from TikTok in a more entertaining format).

And yet you're reading HN? It's not an anti-capitalism stance to call Metaverse idea for what it is - trying to sell an elephant. Capitalism is not about going all in on the craziest ideas ever. What is their bet anyway? What users' need are they trying to address or create? Is this a new and better video game platform? Even if they are successful, VG are still very niche, especially compared to their social network…

I'm reading HN because of the top 5%ile original thought leaders and ideas that I still get out from them.

The FB discussion isn't about anti-capitalism. It is the general theme of HN.

Like most HNers you are lacking imagination in what VR will do. Just like everyone who poo-poo'ed what is possible from Computers, Internet, Mobile Phones.

Yeah before iPhones, we already played with Palm Pilots and Microsoft CE hand held devices.

End users are all of humanity (minus some stubborn Luddites. But you never invest / build strategy around luddites)

If VR helps you master skills better, help firms to be more productive, that in itself is a good enough use case for everyone to use VR

The fact that VR systems can provide experiences closer to reality means the applications are boundless.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#214

Post by FullStackAda »

UncleMeat wrote: post #210
FullStackAda wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet you're reading HN? It's not an anti-capitalism stance to call Metaverse idea for what it is - trying to sell an elephant. Capitalism is not about going all in on the craziest ideas ever. What is their bet anyway? What users' need are they trying to address or create? Is this a new and better video game platform? Even if they are successful, VG are still very niche, especially compared to their social network…

I'm not on board with VR, but I think that the sales pitch is very clear and you are missing it. It is Roblox. It is a collaborative building environment where the content that people create and share for one another is the interactive world rather than text, photos, or videos, done through VR rather than traditional computing.

I guess I am missing it.

This is the first time I am hearing about Roblox, looks video games adjacent to me. Meta would not be able to convert their billions of users to a similar platform.

They have to convince users to give up the time they spend now elsewhere on this experience. I suppose it has to be insanely addictive and rewarding, and also it has to have no barriers of entry.

I am just not seeing it in the Metaverse. I mean people gave up the horizontal video format in order to easier consume media, and Meta is trying to convince everybody that people would wear or implant (?!) a devices to have better fidelity video experience? The entertainment value is just not in the resolution and collaborative content creation is already possible without Metaverse and is niche.

At this point I consider the Metaverse idea just smoke and mirrors to convince investors that they have the next best thing with 30% year to year revenue growth. I don't think Meta would go anywhere soon, they're just hitting the ceiling of easy money they were making and now it's getting harder to have such margins.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#215

Post by giantrobot »

deltree7 wrote: post #213
FullStackAda wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet you're reading HN? It's not an anti-capitalism stance to call Metaverse idea for what it is - trying to sell an elephant. Capitalism is not about going all in on the craziest ideas ever. What is their bet anyway? What users' need are they trying to address or create? Is this a new and better video game platform? Even if they are successful, VG are still very niche, especially compared to their social network…

I'm reading HN because of the top 5%ile original thought leaders and ideas that I still get out from them. The FB discussion isn't about anti-capitalism. It is the general theme of HN. Like most HNers you are lacking imagination in what VR will do. Just like everyone who poo-poo'ed what is possible from Computers, Internet, Mobile Phones. Yeah before iPhones, we already played with Palm Pilots and Microsoft CE hand h…

> Like most HNers you are lacking imagination in what VR will do. Just like everyone who poo-poo'ed what is possible from Computers, Internet, Mobile Phones.

You seem to make a lot of these sweeping statements. They're full of stupid assumptions and generalities. It's a boring shtick and I'm not really seeing you back it up with your dizzying intellect.

Besides being casually insulting to a huge group of people you don't know, it's also a profoundly stupid assertion.

There's no subset of people on HN that at any point poo-pooed computers, the Internet, or mobile phones. A significant population here have been involved in building those things. You're trying to assert that because someone isn't fawning over wide eyed promises of some technology they're some sort of backwards Luddite.

History is littered with technologies that did not revolutionize the world. There's little guarantee VR isn't going to end up in that heap. It's had a lot of promise for decades. It's got fundamental technological, ergonomic, and physiological problems to overcome before it's going to be attractive to anyone but enthusiasts. Even then there's no guarantee that it will take off in a significant way. Even if VR takes off there's no guarantee and little indication that Facebook's vision of VR will take off.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#216

Post by deltree7 »

giantrobot wrote: post #215
deltree7 wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reading HN because of the top 5%ile original thought leaders and ideas that I still get out from them. The FB discussion isn't about anti-capitalism. It is the general theme of HN. Like most HNers you are lacking imagination in what VR will do. Just like everyone who poo-poo'ed what is possible from Computers, Internet, Mobile Phones. Yeah before iPhones, we already played with Palm Pilots and Microsoft CE hand h…

> Like most HNers you are lacking imagination in what VR will do. Just like everyone who poo-poo'ed what is possible from Computers, Internet, Mobile Phones. You seem to make a lot of these sweeping statements. They're full of stupid assumptions and generalities. It's a boring shtick and I'm not really seeing you back it up with your dizzying intellect. Besides being casually insulting to a huge group of people you d…

I've observed users of Usenet, Slashdot, HN -- a self selected group of smart people.

I was there when engineers of the 80s/90s poo, poo'ed commercial success of the internet.

I was there when engineers of the 90s poo, poo'ed iPhones (it's just a drive with a phone jack that can make calls)

I was there when engineers of the 00s poo, poo'ed Twitter, Instagram

Yes, I have sufficient data to safely conclude that smart people close their mind pretty early in their life (A curse of intelligence). There is in fact plenty of research around this. That's why you end with Grammar Nazi's, Language Nazi's, Social Media Nazis.

Very few escape the curse of intelligence (why would they? They pretty much get a cushy job and can lead a comfortable life with their blinders on).

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#217

Post by impulser_ »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #139
impulser_ wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, they run three of the top five most used applications in the world. I love how people keep saying Facebook is dying, yet TikTok still doesn't have as many active users as Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram. The only application that does is YouTube.

TikTok is the most used app. It has more users than Facebook, WhatsApp, or Instagram. It doesn't have as many users as the sum of the user totals of the three big Meta apps, but WhatsApp users aren't really monetizable, and there is a lot of overlap between FB users and Insta users now.

TikTok has ~1.4 billion monthly active users.

Facebook has ~2.9 billion monthly active users.

These are stats from Q1 2022.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#218

Post by impulser_ »

potatolicious wrote: post #146
impulser_ wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, they run three of the top five most used applications in the world. I love how people keep saying Facebook is dying, yet TikTok still doesn't have as many active users as Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram. The only application that does is YouTube.

The present state doesn't matter much though? At least, doesn't matter much over the trend . There were also many times more BlackBerries in the world than iPhones in 2009, but the trendline was pretty clear to anyone who was watching, and material reality has caught up to that trend as expected, with BlackBerry being firmly dead and buried. FB's products are trending downwards and TikTok is trending upwards. FB has…

FB products aren't trending down lol.

Facebook:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly...

Family Apps:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/947869/facebook-product-...

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#219

Post by potatolicious »

rightbyte wrote: post #199
potatolicious wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. I think there a few key observations I've developed working in BigTech for many years now, that I don't think are necessarily obvious from the outside: - You retain engineers by giving them money/stock, and by giving them a well-defined system towards advancing within the company. Typically in BigTech advancement into the senior ranks is defined largely by ability to lead major efforts that require significan…

Sounds very unsubstainable. The amount of new staff is just insane. It has to be chaos on the inside and tens of thousands walking around without anything to do.

Ehh, you'd be surprised! I suspect very few engineers are "walking around without anything to do".

I think modeling the median tech employee as someone who wants to sit around and do nothing is inaccurate - most want to do something productive or fulfilling. Left to their own devices the average engineer in the average tech corporation will trend towards doing something.

The real trick is whether or not that thing is of high value to the company.

You can think about work almost as a gas - it expands to fill the container it's in. Which is to say, if you hire more people, those people will come up with work to occupy themselves. And I don't mean this in a "people are stupid and they will work on stupid menial shit" way - they will actually (in the median) try to come up with something they think is meaningful and important!

The problem is that this "bottom up" approach where people at the leaf nodes of the org tree come up with their own work requires intense curation from the top, otherwise the natural tendency is for lots of teams to form to very excitedly ship a lot of stuff of dubious value to the business.

tl;dr: The problem isn't engineers sitting around idle, it's that unguided engineers tend to get very busy shipping stuff that doesn't matter, or may actually be destructive to the business.

Side note: Google is like this internally, and I suspect (having never worked at FB) that Meta is likely similar. Upper management provides very little product guidance, so figuring out what work should be done and what they should ship is decided very close to the leaf nodes of the company. This IMO goes a long way to explain why Google cancels so much stuff - many, many engineering hours are spent shipping products that do not matter, and eventually the company has to wind it down.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#220

Post by redwood »

rightbyte wrote: post #205
redwood wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like that would be the case but imagine every two pizza team has one or two new junior person and occasionally a senior person: you can actually absorb that at the team level in a reasonably pragmatic way. Not to say it's not inefficient or unnecessary; I just mean each team is creating its own work essentially in their narrow niche and feels it can absorb more engineering bandwidth into that niche... wheth…

Sure, but I guess many teams are "full" and there has to be newbie teams. Also FB has been hireing way more than I thought for a long time: mhio posted further down: 2017 20,658 43% yoy 2018 30,275 47% 2019 39,651 31% 2020 52,534 32% 2021 63,404 21% 2022 83,553 32% Between 2016 and 2018 a 4 person team would go 4->6->9. Assuming even distribution of new hires. Any team bigger than 4 would probably need a split. I jus…

Newbie teams get seeded by veterans tho
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