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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#211

Post by ryantgtg »

Animats wrote: post #209
impulser_ wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

Waymo and Cruise routinely have driverless cars on city streets. In California, all collisions, however minor, have to be reported, and DMV posts them on their web site.[1] Most are very minor. Here's a more serious one from last month: " A Cruise autonomous vehicle ("Cruise AV") operating in driverless autonomous mode, was traveling eastbound on Geary Boulevard toward the intersection with Spruce Street. As it appro…

> In California, all collisions, however minor, have to be reported.

Just to be clear, this statement only applies to AVs, right?

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#212

Post by [deleted] »

hedora wrote: post #95
qaq wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet Tesla is dominant player in luxury segments they have products in

Analysts suggest that, while they may still be the market leader in EVs, by 2025 they're looking at a decline from today's 70-75% market share to 11-20%: https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2022/07/11/ev-makers... This meshes pretty well with them not having anything in the compact, pickup truck, offroading/camping segments (luxury, or not). They also don't have any commercial vehicles like delivery vans. All of…

[deleted]

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#213

Post by HanayamaTriplet »

idop wrote: post #170
bhauer wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The screens melt in Arizona heat. That's a very old talking point about the original Model S screens from ~2012. Do you have any recent justification for this claim?

https://reddit.com/comments/vt7w3d

I'm no fan of Tesla, but to be fair, the OP answers here that this it is 2013 model, so this is still an example of a defect from ~2012: https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/vt7w3d/my_teslas...

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#214

Post by thatswrong0 »

lcnmrn wrote: post #157
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

The only wait to solve it is to have smart roads. Basically, moving the problem domain from the car to the street.

I don't see how smart roads would solve the issues of "the unexpected".. weird pedestrian behavior, getting cut off, parked trucks, construction, etc. It seems to me that smart roads would only solve the issue of general routing, and that already seems to be dealt with as far as I can tell.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#216

Post by nixass »

trixie_ wrote: post #176
Tyndale wrote: post #72

Cars will never drive themselves.

Really? Because autopilot works pretty well for me already. I have it on way more than I have it off. Long roads with lots of stop lights, and 6 hour drives no longer bother me.

I too have adaptive cruise control in my car. It just doesn't have fancy name like Tesla's, but does the job same or better than Tesla

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#217

Post by dreamcompiler »

dham wrote: post #152
moomoo11 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ended up selling mine because the build quality started getting on my nerves. Misaligned panels that are "within spec" or interior rattles that make the ride completely unpleasant (at only 10k miles). The tech is all right, and I got to try auto pilot at a discount. Unfortunately the phantom braking made AP completely useless with passengers who would freak out and complain. However, when it worked it was quite nic…

It's interesting to see that even customers get Autopilot and Full Self Driving mixed up.

Can you blame us? The messaging from the company is both inconsistent and insane. I just call the built-in autosteer wizard "the lane keeper" now because that bypasses the terminology confusion. BTW it works reasonably well on the highway in good conditions. It's perfect as a way of taking a short break and stretching all 4 of my limbs during a drive, but that's the only reason I use it.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#218

Post by ryantgtg »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #78
rsynnott wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any reason why everyone seems to be stuck on this problem? Because it's really, really difficult. A lot of AI-ish stuff pretty rapidly gets to the point where it _looks_ quite impressive, but struggles to make the jump to actual feasibility. Like, there were convincing demos of voice recognition in the mid-90s. You could buy software to transcribe voice on your home computer, and people did. And, now, well, it's be…

I'm old enough to remember all the breathless pronouncements in 2015 about how self-driving cars would be everywhere within 5 years. I was skeptical then and I'm still skeptical that it will ever happen outside of some limited range of well known paths that have been pre-determined to be safe - ie we'll have (and we do have) some self driving cars but they'll essentially be on a closed course and will not leave the c…

As a transportation planner, I’m so deep in a bubble that I didn’t realize people actually believed the “FSD is right around the corner” stuff.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#219

Post by ok_dad »

JaimeThompson wrote: post #193
pm90 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Then, it solves nothing for all those folks living in rural areas and having to drive f-150s. Fortunately thats not a lot of people. When electricity was being rolled out, Westinghouse and Edison didn’t bellyache about not being able to provide electricity to rural areas. They electrified all the cities. Rural areas will just never be able to pay for modern infrastructure. And… thats ok, its not a lot of people.

Perhaps the urban areas should grow their own food?

I think the point was that in rural areas they'll still use cars or something, because it's way more efficient for the low density there. In cities, you would switch away from cars as much as possible. I don't think the commenter meant we'd "abandon the hicks" or something rude like that; the rural folks who farm and do other important jobs are a crucial part of our society for sure.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#220

Post by ryantgtg »

dibujante wrote: post #109
naijaboiler wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6. Need to reasonably predict what that human that just made eye contact with you would likely do next, and how that's different from what he might do when he doesn’t make eye contact with you. And all of that differs if you're in NYC or SF or small town, Indiana

7. Need to understand that drunk person staggering along the roadside has been repeatedly slipping off the sidewalk and there's a non-zero chance they trip and fall right in front of you.

7.5. Need to understand that the drink person staggering _inside_ the robotaxi has just thrown up in the backseat. After they are dropped off, the robotaxi cannot pick up any new customers.
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