US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis • Hacker News Board

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#211

Post by mourner » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:30 PM UTC

nemo44x wrote: post #67

yks wrote: post #29

The West could've ended this war by now if they just went all in on sending howitzers, MLRS and other heavy equipment into Ukraine but they keep slow dripping it, or just doing nothing like Germany. The most powerful societies in the world history just twiddle their thumbs while negative consequences keep mounting.

You're literally asking for more death and destruction. Just think of what you're saying. Russia wins this war no matter what and the pointless cheerleading from the media and some politicians has been nothing but disposing of Ukrainian lives for the sole purpose of getting some type of bizarre revenge on Russia who they believe got Trump elected, or something. Sending more and more weapons only prolongs it and adds…

"Hitler wins this war no matter what, just let him kill all the Jews and enslave non-Aryans so that we could avoid needless deaths and suffering" — does that sound right to you? This is exactly how this ignorant nonsense sounds to a Ukrainian.

This is genocide. Not resisting means millions killed and tens of millions brutally oppressed, a whole nation and its culture erased from existence, and an invitation for further imperialistic wars and atrocities, because evil unpunished only leads to more evil on a larger scale.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#212

Post by somenameforme » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:31 PM UTC

VWWHFSfQ wrote: post #145

realcertify wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely agree. Moreover, it's the diplomatic incompetence on both sides that led to this war, which in my opinion could be easily avoided.

Easily avoided! OK, now let's hear how it could be "easily avoided".

This [1] is a 1.5 minute video of NATO expansion since 1949. It was well understood that eastern expansion would, sooner or later, result in conflict with Russia (or the Soviet Union prior). We decided to not just poke the bear but to go cover our arse in honey and twerk in front of it with Aqua's Barbie Girl pumped up to 11.

And of course it sounds nice to say sovereign nations ought be able to choose their own alliances and relationships, yet how long do you think that rhetoric would last if Russia managed to get Mexico to join a military alliance that was more or less openly framed as a force to "contain" the United States? And to add extra icing on the cake, what if they managed to get Mexico to join only after actively and overtly supporting an insurrection that overthrew a democratically elected pro-US regime?

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug2468hDl6E

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#213

Post by scyzoryk_xyz » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:31 PM UTC

zionic wrote: post #149

dxhdr wrote: post #62

Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT has only strengthened their ties to India and China. Russia is still invading Ukraine, and now we're dealing with soaring food and energy prices at home. At some point you have to consider whether this level of diplomatic incompetence is intentional.

I’m concerned the following might play out: -Russia wins in Ukraine -The sanctions were ultimately ineffective, for the reasons you explain above -China takes Taiwan during major US political unrest, at BEST destroying the fabs and at worst gaining full control of the leading 3nm/2nm etc process -A deeper China-Russia alliance, which was expedited by our ineffective sanctions now, puts the screws to US/western compan…

-Russia wins in Ukraine

Russia has so far demonstrated that it isn’t capable of much on that front. Ukraine is a big country, they’re barely doing a city at a time, and they’ve only had success on a small front that they’re very familiar with.

-The sanctions were ultimately ineffective, for the reasons you explain above

This remains to be seen - they’re definitely “effective” because they’re changing everything, question is how the West could be “miscalculating”.

-China takes Taiwan during major US political unrest, at BEST destroying the fabs and at worst gaining full control of the leading 3nm/2nm etc process

That would require China to launch an enormous large scale operation, which they’ve just seen can be a total shit show. An invasion would probably not allow them to “take” the 2-3nm process either, and it wouldn’t give them the returns on the investment. Most importantly China currently does not need to be invading Taiwan to be in an advantageous strategic position - they’re “winning” as is.

-A deeper China-Russia alliance, which was expedited by our ineffective sanctions now, puts the screws to US/western companies by blocking access to the latest semiconductor tech

Currently Russia has only managed to weaken and isolate itself. The symmetrical relationship Putin would need probably isn’t on the table, and Russia isn’t a worthwhile partner for China in such a terrible and toxic condition.

(Question is if putting “screws” on western companies is “bad” thing, but that’s another matter.)

All of these things worried me before the war, but Russia’s total incompetence has, if anything, greatly held back the China-Russia relationship.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#214

Post by 5e92cb50239222b » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:31 PM UTC

snemvalts wrote: post #156

dxhdr wrote: post #62

Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT has only strengthened their ties to India and China. Russia is still invading Ukraine, and now we're dealing with soaring food and energy prices at home. At some point you have to consider whether this level of diplomatic incompetence is intentional.

> Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years Is that meant to demonstrate economic strength? * Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most of tech employees have left, leaving only people extracting oil, people who turn it into fertilizer and gasoline and supporting roles. * They can't build military tech because of sanctions. Starting to use 1950s and 1960s tanks. * They've privatized and violate…

> Most of tech employees have left

Yeah, you just keep believing that. Western media was happy to report the mass exodus at the beginning of the war, but for some reason didn't notice that the vast majority of them have returned by now. Undoubtedly, some will be better prepared next time and will leave for good, but that definitely won't be 'most of tech employees' because there's nowhere for them to go. It's really hard to emigrate to the West (you have no idea how difficult it is even for those working in IT), and neighboring countries can't soak up that many (I'm from one of them).

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#215

Post by cpursley » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:31 PM UTC

juve1996 wrote: post #209

dxhdr wrote: post #62

Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT has only strengthened their ties to India and China. Russia is still invading Ukraine, and now we're dealing with soaring food and energy prices at home. At some point you have to consider whether this level of diplomatic incompetence is intentional.

Russia will not come out of this any better. China and India are gleefully picking the bones, and it's hard to blame them. The fudged numbers of the Ruble are irrelevant.

The EU and other buyers of Russian commodities seem to be paying those fudged numbers as we speak.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#216

Post by ozzythecat » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:32 PM UTC

themitigating wrote: post #195

logifail wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Appeasement would be a better choice? Pope Francis says Ukraine war was ‘perhaps somehow provoked’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/pope-francis-u... "The pontiff warned [..] against what he said was a fairytale perception of the conflict as good versus evil" "We need to move away from the usual Little Red Riding Hood pattern, in that Little Red Riding Hood was good and the wolf was the bad one [..] so…

What makes the pope, a man who has dedicated his life to the study of religion and God an expert in global politics, that a quote from him has more value than a comment from anyone here. He mentions in the article that an unnamed world leader told him Russia would get upset at NATO being so close to their border. Putin has publicly mentioned this multiple times before the war with Ukraine. Finally, Ukraine has the ri…

> Finally, Ukraine has the right to join any alliance it wants and for Russia to invade over that is bullshit.

In geopolitics, nobody has any particular rights. Whoever has the bigger stick and better propaganda gets their way.

One could argue that there’s no reason to have sanctions on Cuba, that Palestinians should also have the right to self determination, that America doesn’t have the right to interfere in the developing world.

That’s not how the world works, regardless of right or wrong.

IMO - the west could have prevented this war. Regardless of what Ukraine wants, an agreement that NATO will not expand eastwards for 60 years in exchange for Russia not invading. That was all we needed.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#217

Post by yks » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:33 PM UTC

xkcd1963 wrote: post #177

yks wrote: post #29

The West could've ended this war by now if they just went all in on sending howitzers, MLRS and other heavy equipment into Ukraine but they keep slow dripping it, or just doing nothing like Germany. The most powerful societies in the world history just twiddle their thumbs while negative consequences keep mounting.

This is a dangerous view. Might have worked for the past when we didn't have nuclear weapons.

Nuclear powers lost wars before, nuclear powers lost proxy wars before, and yet we are not living in the Fallout world.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#218

Post by beefield » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:33 PM UTC

brandonmenc wrote: post #110

tshaddox wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then what are you suggesting? That Putin ought to be allowed to do literally anything he wants because if we tried to stop him he might nuke everyone?

> allowed to do literally anything Uh, yeah? If you have nukes you can pretty much do whatever you want, short of launching them at another nuclear power. That's just like, reality. Remember this the next time everyone bellyaches about "unfair sanctions" or whatever when some country even hints that they're pursuing a nuclear program.

> Uh, yeah?

There was something about liberty and safety and deserving neither that some US president said long time ago that I think might very much apply here.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#219

Post by slim » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:34 PM UTC

rajup wrote: post #183

logifail wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Appeasement would be a better choice? Pope Francis says Ukraine war was ‘perhaps somehow provoked’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/pope-francis-u... "The pontiff warned [..] against what he said was a fairytale perception of the conflict as good versus evil" "We need to move away from the usual Little Red Riding Hood pattern, in that Little Red Riding Hood was good and the wolf was the bad one [..] so…

Well that’s a new one, is there an interpretation of red riding hood where the wolf is good?

No post body was provided.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#220

Post by jacobolus » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 7:34 PM UTC

corrral wrote: post #187

jacobolus wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obama had the problem that he was a young guy who came in with big ambitious promises and good intentions but inherited a complete shitshow from his predecessor (both the wars and an economic crisis). His opposition was intransigent and did everything they could to undermine the USA for their own narrow political interest, and his party got bashed up in the 2010 midterm elections. He then let himself get pushed aroun…

Syria was the worst part, because the fallout from that was really bad. Not sure we'd have had Brexit without the extra pressure that put on Europe. Likely empowered Erdogan somewhat (doubt it made a big difference there, admittedly) and contributed to the rise of far right parties in Eastern Europe. Plus, you know, sucks for the Syrians. Nb. what I blame him for isn't the Syrian civil war itself, but for choosing to…

> Syria was the worst part,

Agreed. Obama came in from the context of the wars in Iraq/Afghanistan and wanted to avoid another similar, and was too cautious and non-confrontational, especially once Russia got involved.

> Pushing NATO members to meet their defense spending obligations ended up being damn-near prescient

This was not “pushing” so much as “ineffective trash talking”. And it had nothing to do with making NATO or European militaries effective, but was based on Trump’s inability to understand anything except in narrowly transactional terms, not comprehending the possibility of second-order effects or complex systems and therefore unwilling to listen when people try to explain that supporting NATO and maintaining the prevailing geopolitical order is in America’s long-term interest. With maybe some bonus of trying to help Putin.

> I'd love to see more breaking down of trade relations with China

Trump’s #1 foreign policy “accomplishment” was pulling the USA out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, undermining US economic and social power in the region to China’s great benefit.

> Withdrawing from Afghanistan was way overdue and it disgusted me

The USA should have pulled out of Afghanistan years before (or never gone in at all), but the way the Trump administration handled the transition was profoundly incompetent, and made things much harder for the Biden administration (the only president of the past 4 with the guts to go through with it).