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Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

fragileequilibrium.substack.com

211–220 of 264 posts

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#211
post #155
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value of a thing is in two parts, it's use value to it's possessor and it's exchange value with others. Examples have already been posted here. My house has a use value to me because I need somewhere to live. If I lived on a small island off Antarctica it would still have great value to me but perhaps no value to anyone else. Money is a financial instrument that only has exchange value, unless you count say the u…

It's true that utility is also a factor but it's extremely limited. The house you and others have mentioned is an easy one. That whole concept of ownership is reliant on an entire system existing and enforcing those "rights". It's the threat of violence that prevents someone from showing up, "claiming" your house and kicking you out.

True, economically speaking personal use value doesn't really matter. It's great for you, but economics is about exchange.

Enforcement is an interesting factor. Laws can guarantee rights to enable and protect free exchange, but they can also coerce behaviour as I touched on.

In more or less free markets what laws do is provide guarantees that increase trust, which has the main effect of reducing costs. You don't need to personally audit the books of a company you invest in, because the government mandates that it's done for you to a set of standards which eliminates some risks (not all, just some). You don't need to personally research if the products you buy are safe or of a basic level of quality if the government mandates standards and enforces them, and if you have a right to return goods if you find a problem with them. This makes the goods themselves a little more expensive, but the overall costs and risks (which translates into costs) to consumers are much lower.

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." The idea behind prices in a market economy is that they're an information-carrying abstraction. They let producers at every stage of the value chain understand the relative costs that go into different alternate ways of producing a good, without needing to understand every single stage of the supply chain and all the decisions that their suppliers mad…

> So rates get pegged below the natural rate of interest (which equilibrates supply of savings with demand for productive investment) But the only body even attempting to determine what "productive investment" is and respond to it is the Fed. Savers are interested in money returns or at least preserving their holding which in many feasible circumstances (chronic instability, zero sum economies with fixed currency sup…

But that's not true: every individual household and business is trying to maximize their profits (or at least, those that aren't are replaced by those that are), reducing their expenditures and increasing their revenues. In the presence of a stable money supply and stable prices, the only way to do this is through innovation and better efficiency: you reduce the value of your inputs, or you increase the value of the outputs. In the presence of external variations in the cost of capital, it becomes more profitable to capture that external capital than it is to increase efficiency.

Peter Thiel and many other observers have noted that American innovativeness and productivity growth fell off a cliff c. 1971 [1]. He blames government regulation; however, a more likely explanation is that Nixon turned the U.S. dollar into a fully-fiat currency right around then, incentivizing people to compete for newly-created dollars rather than capture more of the ones circulating through the economy.

The causality might run the other way around too, as the Fed holds rates artificially low to paper over low real productivity growth, but this is not an improvement: it just means that we have a feedback loop between money-supply growth, inflation, and low real economic growth.

[1] https://www.seeitmarket.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/debt-...

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#213
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My house is valuable to me even if there isn't a collective belief in it. Most financial assets are backed to some extent by real assets. I'm happy enough to put value in USD or imaginary-coin if I can swap my holdings in them for a nice house/car/jet. You don't really need "economic, military and even cultural might" - just for the currency to be accepted somewhere where you can buy real assets and for the supply to…

You're confusing having value to others with having value to yourself. I can be happy with a nice rock I found on the beach if I really love it and it's important to me. However, what we are taking about here is are assets which have a wider value on an open market.

Yeah but if it has value to me it probably does to others. These kind of things, good houses, land, gold etc. have a good record of retaining some sort of value over long periods of time.

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#214
post #118
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My house is valuable to me even if there isn't a collective belief in it. Most financial assets are backed to some extent by real assets. I'm happy enough to put value in USD or imaginary-coin if I can swap my holdings in them for a nice house/car/jet. You don't really need "economic, military and even cultural might" - just for the currency to be accepted somewhere where you can buy real assets and for the supply to…

The collective belief that you own your home is a crucial part of its value. If you come home and find a bunch of people partying in your kitchen, you can tell them to leave, or call the police and they'll drag them out. That's all due to the collective belief that you own your house. Without that collective belief, owning anything is a huge effort to defend it against whoever else it might appeal to.

Well such is the way of the world that you may have to defend your property or have someone do it on your behalf. Animals have homes and territories that they defend in nature too so it's not unique to human belief systems.

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#215
post #199
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that Tether has no legal requirement to allow you to redeem their coins, aren't 100% backed by USD, and has a history of lieing about their backing.

Sure, they're unregulated with little or no oversight and could be spunking it all tropical islands, but that's the theory :)

That's the point of an algo stablecoin. I can see the code and have direct oversight.

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#216
This is the problem with "analysis" on stablecoins. He dreams up a 'potential stablecoin', inherently designs it with flaws and says all algorithmic stablecoins will fail without contiinuous funding.

The sky is the limit with Algorithmic stablecoins and you can't throw the baby out with the bath water. All this is simply not true in every case.

Imagine a stablecoin over-collateralized with interest bearing crypto (basket of POS coins) and certified tokenized REITS, synthetic S&P, commodity futures, etc.

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." The idea behind prices in a market economy is that they're an information-carrying abstraction. They let producers at every stage of the value chain understand the relative costs that go into different alternate ways of producing a good, without needing to understand every single stage of the supply chain and all the decisions that their suppliers mad…

> The idea behind prices in a market economy is that they're an information-carrying abstraction. No, the idea behind prices is that they are what the participants in particular trades think it is worth trading at. The normative argument for the superiority of laissez-faire economies may involve market prices as an information carrying mechanism, but that normative argument is much newer than market economies, and is…

> > The idea behind prices in a market economy is that they're an information-carrying abstraction.

> No, the idea behind prices is that they are what the participants in particular trades think it is worth trading at.

Why are these two things mutually exclusive? Aren't they, in fact, mutually dependent?

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have a backed stablecoin (as opposed to algorithmic stablecoin) that is pegged to the USD without any funny business, then the price of that coin can always be restored to $1. No matter how badly people "lose faith" in the coin.

As long as you're willing to expend unlimited amounts of money doing so. But no one is.

False. What you're describing applies to algorithmic stablecoin, but it doesn't apply to a backed stablecoin. If I sell 1000 units of BAOBABUSD to people for $1 each, and then they all panic and sell, I can buy all 1000 units of the stablecoin by using the $1000 I already have in the bank. Please explain why you feel that this maneuver requires unlimited amounts of money?

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have a backed stablecoin (as opposed to algorithmic stablecoin) that is pegged to the USD without any funny business, then the price of that coin can always be restored to $1. No matter how badly people "lose faith" in the coin.

"... without continuous funding "

Sounds like you are confusing an algorithmic stablecoin with a fully backed stablecoin. If I am mistaken and you have an actual argument behind that smirk, then please go ahead and present your argument.

Re: Algorithmic stablecoins are provably impossible without continuous funding

#220

The problem here is the abuse of the word "stable". It's being conflated with the word "pegged". Pegging something to something else that is unstable doesn't make it stable. For as long as monetary policy in fiat continues to ease, you'll have more dollars around, inflating the money supply. The pegged item will need to match this in the long run to maintain the peg. Which won't be possible without further minting of…

What is a viable alternative to fiat? Both commodity money (e.g. gold shillings) and representative money (e.g. backed by precious metal reserves) have already failed.

Bitcoin duck ;)
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