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Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

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Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#211

Someone help me understand this. All you need for a stable stablecoin is to save every dollar put in to it. The people behind Tether sell tethers for $1, they save all of those dollars, and whenever the price of Tethers drops to $0.99, they buy tethers until the price is back up to $1. As long as they never spend anything from the reserve, this can't fail no matter how unpopular the currency is - they can back the cu…

There is an assumption behind your question to the effect of saying "If we assume Tether is not, ultimately, a fraud, it seems like the only way..." That is, IMHO, a questionable assumption. Now, "fraud" in this case too strong a term. The intent to defraud may not be explicit in Tether's internal conversations and practices. All business ventures by definition involve risk, and corporate structures and venues and li…

Let's be honest with ourselves... Tether is almost certainly intentionally fraudulent.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#212

Eventually, the US will figure this out and make a USD crypto that will be used as THE stablecoin. It seems obvious to me that a stablecoin needs a solid governmental backing, since there is no profit in it and you need unlimited deep pockets in case of a run. The advantage is then that the USD remains the world's premier reserve currency, even into the digital age.

What could you do with a USD stablecoin that you can't do with a regular old dollar? Other than let everyone see your transactions and account balances.

Why do you think any stablecoin exists? What need do they solve?

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#213

Eventually, the US will figure this out and make a USD crypto that will be used as THE stablecoin. It seems obvious to me that a stablecoin needs a solid governmental backing, since there is no profit in it and you need unlimited deep pockets in case of a run. The advantage is then that the USD remains the world's premier reserve currency, even into the digital age.

What could you do with a USD stablecoin that you can't do with a regular old dollar? Other than let everyone see your transactions and account balances.

Many things. A stablecoin that implements ERC20 interface can be used across Ethereum ecosystem and it’s smart contracts. You could even program your own smart contracts around the token, such as to setup a time lock or auction.

Examples: converting it to another token on a decentralized exchange, purchasing an NFT, holding the token in a non-custodial wallet, holding the token in a multi-signatory wallet, participating in DAOs, using a smart contract to handle decentralized escrow, interacting with decentralized lending protocols and liquidity providers.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your answer is not false, but does not explain why someone would hold Tether instead of using it as an intermediate vehicle.

People hold Tether because it is away from the eyes of governments.

How precisely is it away from the eyes of governments? We've seen ample reporting in recent days about just how easy it is to trace crypto assets.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#215

Someone help me understand this. All you need for a stable stablecoin is to save every dollar put in to it. The people behind Tether sell tethers for $1, they save all of those dollars, and whenever the price of Tethers drops to $0.99, they buy tethers until the price is back up to $1. As long as they never spend anything from the reserve, this can't fail no matter how unpopular the currency is - they can back the cu…

Here's what you're missing:

The USD:USDT exchange rate should always be 1:1. If 1 USDT is, due to market pressure, suddenly worth $0.98 USD, Tether's responsibility involves some analysis of either waiting for the market to resolve itself (maybe its a transient thing, and its an arbitrage opportunity, so The People may step in), or act as the source of market liquidity; they buy USDT up, with their dollar reserves. Now they, as they always do, have a reserve of USDT they can re-sell for $1 USD without minting new currency, which is convenient (though ultimately a liability on their balance sheets).

But there's a second situation: the exchange rate hits 1 USDT == 1.02 USD. This would happen if demand for Tether were very high; people want safety and stability, so they demand USDT. But: they aren't interested in "leaving crypto"; they don't want to convert USD to USDT, they want to convert crypto assets to USDT. The open market doesn't have enough liquidity to support the 1:1 exchange rate, so the price of USDT starts rising.

This absolutely happens in exchanges which price crypto assets in USDT, which is many. One exchange says 1 BTC = X USD, another says 1 BTC = X*1.01 USDT, and there's now an inter-exchange arbitrage opportunity based on the promise that 1 USD should be 1 USDT. That arbitrage, in some market conditions, can act as an upward force on the price of USDT.

It is ALSO Tether's responsibility to cool off the market. What do they do in this situation? There's only one solution: they need to increase the liquidity pool of USDT. In other words, there are sources of demand for USDT outside the scope of the purist viewpoint of "give me one USD and you get one USDT" rooted in their responsibility not just to act as a reserve bank for USD/T, but also a market maker. Markets misbehave; Tether promises stability.

What's the source of these USDT? They probably have some USDT in their reserves. But beyond that, they need to be minted! Their promise is that every minted token is backed with USD. Assume they're keeping their promise, then follow the line of questioning into where the USD comes from. Return on USD investments for sure. Bank loans? External investor capital? CEO working nights at McDonalds? Regardless, it gets minted and then sold (probably at $1 USD); they make the money back.

And, of course, there's the situation if that assumption is wrong. They have no external source of capital; they just mint tokens to meet demand, hoping that they get sold at $1 USD to refill the reserves. And that's damn convenient, wouldn't it be? USD-backed investments are pretty risky; we could be in a down market and their AAPL shares are in the red; and its USUALLY the case that demand for USDT, for stability, would be high when other markets are in the red; when it rains it pours. They need to pay taxes on the ROI of those investments. Things like bank loans or external investor funding usually also have expectations of ROI. Those are all costs; and it would be REALLY convenient if they could just ignore those and mint the tokens, who cares, the money will flow back in.

This actually works most of the time; it's literally called Fractional Reserve Banking, and everyone does it. But during black swan events, it can break down; especially when you mix in typical finance bro greed, but that isn't even necessary for something like USDT to break down.

There's no perfectly safe way to create a reserve-backed stable asset. The best hope in a deflationary context is that if the price of USD:USDT goes to something like 1:1.01, people preemptively come to Tether, give them USD for USDT, then arbitrage it back to 1:1. But because the logistics of doing that are different than just exchanging crypto-to-crypto (latency, KYC, etc), there could be a demand mis-match. Tether can't let the price stay above 1:1 for long, because it actually devalues the USD basis of anyones' investments denominated in USDT, which is a loss-of-faith event that can spiral to be even worse. So Tether steps in.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#216
post #196

Eventually, the US will figure this out and make a USD crypto that will be used as THE stablecoin. It seems obvious to me that a stablecoin needs a solid governmental backing, since there is no profit in it and you need unlimited deep pockets in case of a run. The advantage is then that the USD remains the world's premier reserve currency, even into the digital age.

W...why do you want something more digital than the existing system ? I dont want each dollar to be tracked from its infancy to where I spent it, I m quite fine with withdrawing my digital money back to cash at the ATM and spending it anonymously thereafter. The system is perfect, why change it to liquefy the dumb investment a few crypto lunatics made ?

The existing system would stay the same. A USD stablecoin would be something new - a cryptocurrency that is backed 1:1 by the USD and the US Government.

It's too big of a job for private finances and too prone to corruption because there is zero profit if you do it properly.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#217

Someone help me understand this. All you need for a stable stablecoin is to save every dollar put in to it. The people behind Tether sell tethers for $1, they save all of those dollars, and whenever the price of Tethers drops to $0.99, they buy tethers until the price is back up to $1. As long as they never spend anything from the reserve, this can't fail no matter how unpopular the currency is - they can back the cu…

> whenever the price of Tethers drops to $0.99, they buy tethers until the price is back up to $1. Buy Tethers with what? If the money is in fact saved in regulated banks or other such instruments, there's nothing liquid left to defend the peg on the exchange. Instead, the standard "backed stablecoin" approach is to make money with a small spread on redemptions/creation, while allowing others to do that hard work. Te…

> In theory, every single USDT in circulation could be redeemed at a moment's notice

The easy way to protect against this is to not contractually promise instant redemption. I think this is what tether actually does, but I could not find a source. Regular savings account banks do typically do this, for example the bank has the right to ask for 7 days to honor a withdrawal.

If you are tether and your asserts are in bonds that mature in under N days, then you could just promise redemption within N days to eliminate bank run risk. You would still of course have counter party risk that when the bond matures it is not paid back.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#218

Someone help me understand this. All you need for a stable stablecoin is to save every dollar put in to it. The people behind Tether sell tethers for $1, they save all of those dollars, and whenever the price of Tethers drops to $0.99, they buy tethers until the price is back up to $1. As long as they never spend anything from the reserve, this can't fail no matter how unpopular the currency is - they can back the cu…

> All you need for a stable stablecoin is to save every dollar put in to it.

That’s the issue right there. How does Tether save its dollars? We can see it in their transparency report[1]. Whether you believe them or not it’s not just cash in a bank account.

* 0.41% Non-U.S. Treasury Bills

* 55.53% U.S. Treasury Bills

* 0.15% Reverse Repurchase Agreements

* 5.81% Cash & Bank Deposits

* 9.63% Money Market Funds

* 28.47% Commercial Paper and Certificates of Deposit

How much of that is liquid and directly convertible to dollars 1:1 in he next 24 hours? Not 100%.

What happens when they start selling billions in Treasury Bills and Commercial Paper to fund redemptions? The market price of those assets will drop.

What if the value of those assets is already below 1:1 because of recent market events?

What if they’re not being as transparent as they say they are?

> As long as they never spend anything from the reserve, this can't fail no matter how unpopular the currency is.

This can easily fail many different ways.

[1]: https://tether.to/en/transparency/#reports

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#219
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

W...why do you want something more digital than the existing system ? I dont want each dollar to be tracked from its infancy to where I spent it, I m quite fine with withdrawing my digital money back to cash at the ATM and spending it anonymously thereafter. The system is perfect, why change it to liquefy the dumb investment a few crypto lunatics made ?

The existing system would stay the same. A USD stablecoin would be something new - a cryptocurrency that is backed 1:1 by the USD and the US Government. It's too big of a job for private finances and too prone to corruption because there is zero profit if you do it properly.

But why should the US government build something just so crypto folks have something to gamble with? Why does the government need to enable their habit? What benefit is there to its people?

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your answer is not false, but does not explain why someone would hold Tether instead of using it as an intermediate vehicle.

The wisdom of holding is always relative to the rest of the market and what else you could be holding. Imagine a metals exchange. If copper were going up in value compared to the other metals, you’d want to hold copper. But you can also sell all your metals for cash. You would do this when all the metals are going down in value, which means USD is the “best-performing metal” and you want to be holding it. You always…

This all is a good explanation for why you might hold USD instead of other assets. It’s a less compelling explanation for why you might hold USDT, which would be the same as holding USD except it also might crash and leave you with nothing.
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