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Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

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Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#211

Post by s1artibartfast »

mcguire wrote: post #166
s1artibartfast wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why did Russia raise the stakes in December? Sure, NATO's eastward push has demonstrably increased tensions but the eastward push has been frozen since about 2014 since countries can't join NATO if they have territorial conflicts. Formal joining was on hold, but everything else was accelerating since 2014. Most notably arms shipments, military funding, and NATO/US troops in Ukraine. At some point, there are simply t…

" ...NATO/US troops in Ukraine... " Do you have a source for that? Don't forget, " On June 1, 1996, Ukraine became a non-nuclear nation, sending the last of the 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads it had inherited from the Soviet Union to Russia for dismantling. Ukraine had committed to this by signing the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in January 1994. " That was certainly a stupid idea.

>That was certainly a stupid idea.

It is not at all clear that it was a stupid idea.

The nukes were useless because Russia had all of the access codes and the ICBMS had a minimum range of 5000 km. They could hit the USA but couldn't be aimed at Russia. The rest were disabled and Ukraine didn't have a nuclear weapons program or ability to repair them.

If they tried to keep them, they could have faced retaliation or attack from Russia, the United States, and other NATO allies.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#212

Post by rektide »

teachrdan wrote: post #194
Grustaf wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The propaganda onslaught is unparalleled. Ukraine is painted as heaven on Earth, a beacon of democracy. McFaul even suggested that Putin essentially "hated Ukraine because it was free". In reality Ukraine is even more corrupt than Russia, their economy is in terrible shape, despite having more natural resources than most, and a diligent educated population. GDP per capita is a third of Russia's, lower than Belarus! T…

Does Ukraine kill journalists who criticize their government? Does it send assassins who murder political dissidents abroad with polonium? Do they imprison and torture people for being queer? It seems your argument that Ukraine is corrupt and poor creates a false equivalence with Russia. It seems to me that Russia under Putin is far, far worse.

Euromaidan (Nov 2013, leading to the Revolution of Dignity, Feb 2014) seems to be one of the main things that pissed Russia off, that made them fear for their national security. Here's the people of Ukraine, showing hope & trying to cast off the corruption, unwilling to simply swallow the long dark agenda their leaders are pushing them towards. Amazing.

Having hope & democracy & people getting better is an existential threat to a nearby country that rules via corruption & force. Ukraine has improved slowly, moved up in the ranks of corrupt countries, passed Russia (now #122 vs Russia' #136 in the Corruption Perception Index, https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021 ). The model of people being free to speak up against the bad is a primary threat, and happening too close to Russia for them to bear it.

As FP put in the Dec 2021 subheading,

> The country’s democratization and ongoing efforts to fight entrenched graft and cronyism are a threat to Putin’s model of governance.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/17/ukraine-russia-corrupti...

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#213

Post by qiskit »

credit_guy wrote: post #154

I read Mearsheimer's "Tragedy of Great Power Politics", and I think it's one of the most important books ever written. It completely changed the way I think about what's going on in the world. That being said, I think on the topic of Russia and Ukraine, Mearsheimer is not consistent with his own theory (defensive realism). I completely understand why Putin is doing what he's doing, his actions are very well explained…

> But to say that what Russia is doing is somehow US's fault, that really does not make any sense.

He's saying it is US's fault because Russia has been accommodating the US for decades. Russia allowed NATO to gobble up country after country all the way to Russia's borders.

> People say one thing and do another thing all the time, that's the way you play the game.

Hence it's NATO's fault. It is NATO's greed that resulted in Georgians dying. It's NATO's greed that resulted in ukrainians dying.

> But, one thing is to not keep your word about this or that, another thing is to start killing people. By the thousands. And destroy their homes. And make them leave their countries. Is really Mearsheimer incapable of understanding this difference?

War is politics by other means. As you said "well, welcome to politics.". Yes, ukrainians are dying. You can thank NATO.

The war in ukraine is a result of NATO's ( ultimately america's ) actions. NATO was the first mover ( aka the cause of it ). Nobody who has taken a class in international politics will debate it. None. And the biggest beneficiary of the ukraine war is NATO. Ukraine suffers, Russia suffer. NATO is sitting pretty.

US told the Soviet Union putting nukes in cuba would lead to nuclear war. The soviet union backed off. Russia said NATO expansion to Ukraine or Georgia would lead to war. NATO discarded it. If the soviet union had put nukes on cuba and got attacked, it would be the soviet union's fault. Just like the blame for ukraine lies entirely with NATO. But that's academics. In reality, the propaganda will tell you who is to be blamed for what in each country.

Can't wait to see what our meddling in Taiwan will lead to. Hopefully a serious punch in the mouth so we'll quit the empire business once and for all.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#214

Post by 331c8c71 »

sidibe wrote: post #180
331c8c71 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just ours. I understand your sentiment. The point is that in case of Ukraine the pro-russian half of the population did not want to be governed by us-installed government who started their reign by changing the language legislature in favor of the ukranian language. The anti-russian political tilt resulted in federalisation demands from the eastern regions as well as crimea which progressed into full-blown separati…

> pro-russian half of the population Half?! Putin's propaganda is quite effective

Obviously Ukraine didn't split in two and only small parts seceded. As to how many Ukrainians were unhappy with the new government - I don't have a good estimate as I wasn't interested in Ukranian politics and might be wrong.

I would be curious to hear your version of the events.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#215

Post by dragonwriter »

qiskit wrote: post #213
credit_guy wrote: post #154

I read Mearsheimer's "Tragedy of Great Power Politics", and I think it's one of the most important books ever written. It completely changed the way I think about what's going on in the world. That being said, I think on the topic of Russia and Ukraine, Mearsheimer is not consistent with his own theory (defensive realism). I completely understand why Putin is doing what he's doing, his actions are very well explained…

> But to say that what Russia is doing is somehow US's fault, that really does not make any sense. He's saying it is US's fault because Russia has been accommodating the US for decades. Russia allowed NATO to gobble up country after country all the way to Russia's borders. > People say one thing and do another thing all the time, that's the way you play the game. Hence it's NATO's fault. It is NATO's greed that resul…

> Russia allowed NATO to gobble up country after country all the way to Russia's borders.

NATO didn't gobble them up, they voluntarily joined, and they weren't Russian colonies such that it was a matter of Russia “letting” anyone do anything.

Russia is the one that has been literally gobbling up (at least parts of, prior to the most recent attempt) neighboring cointries.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#216

Post by wangii »

shkkmo wrote: post #27

> We should be pivoting out of Europe to deal with China in a laser-like fashion, number one. And, number two, we should be working overtime to create friendly relations with the Russians. The Russians are part of our balancing coalition against China. If you live in a world where there are three great powers—China, Russia, and the United States—and one of those great powers, China, is a peer competitor, what you wan…

Good question.

The answer is the inertial of interest groups. US had put its weight on every corner of the society to demonize Russia, cut off every economic tie over 70 years, while done the exact opposite towards China. According to what I've read, a majority of members of congress and senate have business connections with China back in 2018 (80%? I don't remember the exact number). Never mention the bad images lasting forever in the entertainment(mass brain wash) industry.

Inside of the government, there have been piles of research papers, plans, and millions of man-year brain power accumulated on screwing Russia, it's cheap, reliable, achievable and efficient to just follow what old hands had envisioned.

For great powers, it's painful to conduct strategic adjustment. In authoritarian countries, it's mostly done through cold blooded purge. In liberal democracy, it's often the mass propaganda campaign with helps of God sent PR events, under extraordinary leadership, which believe or not, is not what elected are good at.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#217

Post by tveita »

empressplay wrote: post #21
majormajor wrote: post #9

Mearsheimer also is directly blaming Ukraine here in a way that hardly seems reasonable. "When you’re a country like Ukraine and you live next door to a great power like Russia, you have to pay careful attention to what the Russians think, because if you take a stick and you poke them in the eye, they’re going to retaliate. States in the Western hemisphere understand this full well with regard to the United States."…

I'm Canadian. As a Canadian I am fully aware that my country exists strictly at the whim of the US. If we were to decide to form a military alliance with Russia, hosting Russian troops on our soil, Canada would be invaded by the US in a New York minute. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool. It sucks of course but it is what it is. That is all he is saying.

So you think if Canada got friendly with Russia it would be invaded by "the US", meaning that the people of the US would democratically elect a government that would not avert this scenario through diplomatic negotiation and nurturing relations between the countries, not by the considerable pressure of economic sanctions, not even through propaganda and covert CIA ops, but they'd actually march the military in and start shelling major Canadian cities killing civilians? And the people of the US would support that?

That sounds unlikely to me.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#218

Post by s1artibartfast »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #209
mcguire wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" ...NATO/US troops in Ukraine... " Do you have a source for that? Don't forget, " On June 1, 1996, Ukraine became a non-nuclear nation, sending the last of the 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads it had inherited from the Soviet Union to Russia for dismantling. Ukraine had committed to this by signing the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in January 1994. " That was certainly a stupid idea.

It's a little more complicated than that. Ukraine did not have the ability to use any of those nuclear weapons because they never had the launch codes. They were basically stationed in Ukraine but were still under Moscow's control. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link A rough analogy would be this, if the United States broke apart South Dakota would have hundreds of nuclear warheads but the South Dako…

And they lacked the knowledge and infrastructure to maintain or modify them.

And Russia didn't want them to have them and knew their exact locations.

And NATO and the rest of the world saw Ukraine as a violation of the non-proliferation treaty and didn't want them to have them.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#219

Post by qiskit »

dragonwriter wrote: post #215
qiskit wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But to say that what Russia is doing is somehow US's fault, that really does not make any sense. He's saying it is US's fault because Russia has been accommodating the US for decades. Russia allowed NATO to gobble up country after country all the way to Russia's borders. > People say one thing and do another thing all the time, that's the way you play the game. Hence it's NATO's fault. It is NATO's greed that resul…

> Russia allowed NATO to gobble up country after country all the way to Russia's borders. NATO didn't gobble them up, they voluntarily joined, and they weren't Russian colonies such that it was a matter of Russia “letting” anyone do anything. Russia is the one that has been literally gobbling up (at least parts of, prior to the most recent attempt) neighboring cointries.

That's a very naive take. They weren't russian colonies but they were within its sphere of influence. Just like cuba, canada and the entire western hemisphere is within our sphere of influence. Do you know what would have lead to an invasion of canada? Canada's request to join the soviet union. Every major power has its sphere of influence and limits. The only shame is that we don't get to feel the pain of our actions. It will be ukrainians and eventually taiwanese who will feel the pain of our meddling. Just like in iraq, iran, syria, libya, etc. Hopefully that comes to an end sooner than later so we'll stop causing trouble everywhere in the world. When you actually look all the wars and death and suffering in the past few decades, we've had a hand in practically all of them.

Re: Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

#220

Post by Dma54rhs »

qiskit wrote: post #219
dragonwriter wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia allowed NATO to gobble up country after country all the way to Russia's borders. NATO didn't gobble them up, they voluntarily joined, and they weren't Russian colonies such that it was a matter of Russia “letting” anyone do anything. Russia is the one that has been literally gobbling up (at least parts of, prior to the most recent attempt) neighboring cointries.

That's a very naive take. They weren't russian colonies but they were within its sphere of influence. Just like cuba, canada and the entire western hemisphere is within our sphere of influence. Do you know what would have lead to an invasion of canada? Canada's request to join the soviet union. Every major power has its sphere of influence and limits. The only shame is that we don't get to feel the pain of our action…

No we basically begged nato to take us under protection. There are many things people don't like in Eastern Europe about America but no one doubt Russia is the greater evil. Only Americans can afford self reflection and self criticism. There is no such thing in Russia and no one wants to live under baron robber regime, its objective reality. Some countries have been born to wrong geopolitical location and don't have much choice.
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