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Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

foreignpolicy.com

211–220 of 265 posts

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#211
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto is fiat currency without even so much as the fiat. Meaning it floats completely at random based on the mood of the participants... which now is driven solely by wanting to sell that crypto to some Greater Fool.

What about company stocks, maybe Evergrande. Hold them while waiting for Greater Fool.

Do you genuinely not see a difference between Bitcoin and a stock?

Stock is ownership of a company and entitlement to its profits. If you gamble on an unprofitable company with no assets, then sure, your stock could be worth very little. But even then, the company likely has cashflow or something in its financials that's valuable.

Companies selling stock are also analyzed to death and publish their audited financials.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#212
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some chains it is 1c

trouble is the interface to actual money - the only coins that have any depth of dollar liquidity are BTC and ETH, both of which are proof-of-work. Even if your low-fee shitcoin just happens to have a USD pair, it's startlingly unlikely to have enough depth not to have massive slippage on trades; so functionally, buyers have to go via BTC or ETH. This is also the fallacy of non-PoW NFT chains.

Looking at SOL/USDT on Binance.com [1] as an example, it looks like there are typically orders for a few thousand USDT within a 1 cent spread (0.006% of the price), or orders for a few hundred thousand USDT within a 25 cent spread (0.15% of the price).

Most of us aren't trading millions at a time, and these spreads seem fairly insignificant compared to fees extracted by banks, credit card networks, etc, so is this really an issue?

[1] https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT?layout=pro

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious about what Facebook/WhatsApp is doing in Guatemala, right next to El Salvador. They are integrating WhatsApp, the main messaging app, with a stable coin Pax Dollars and Zero fee remittances between U.S. and Guatemala. The countries are next to each other and are similar in many ways. But one difference is that Guatemala, has their own stable local currency (Quetzal/GTQ), and the exchange rate margins char…

What they're doing is not actually using the USDP in any manner. The USDP sits in Novi's account in Coinbase Custody. The USDP in the Novi app is just accounting entries in their system. wrote this up here: https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2021/11/02/facebooks-no... I'd be amazed if the new Novi-in-WhatsApp thing didn't work the same way. It's the best possible way to use the blockchain: say "blockchain" in the p…

Hi David!

Thank you for sharing that link. I'm a reader of yours and never imagined you replying one of my comments.

By the way thank you for the coverage in English you do about my country which summarizes many of the things that are happening here. And specially for reporting about the political context in which all of these is happening. As this is something not covered much by other news outlets.

I was curious about Novi/WhatsApp because the potential it has for becoming a new widespread payment method due to the market share of WhatsApp in these countries. Not much about the underlying technology.

So many transactions here involve sharing screenshots of bank payments confirmations or photos of bank deposit slips via WhatsApp messages. From small stuff to even loans, that Whatsapp could easily move from sending screenshots to sending payments by adding a "pay" button on their app.

If they get the end user experience right, and regulatory approvals which is a bigger challenge by itself. I don't think the end users will think much about the underlying technology.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#214
post #107
post #26

I’m exhausted by cryptocurrency. There’s a kernel of neat tech innovation and a reasonable argument about monetary policy obliterated by an avalanche of greed, hype, fraud, and magical thinking.

I’m exhausted by the fiat money scam 2% annual inflation over a 40 year career amounts to 40% less earnings. Inflation is theft. Bitcoin fixes this. No one has ever explained a better solution to inflation than Bitcoin. Fiat money printing is a scam that lets politicians spend more money without directly raising taxes. Bitcoin is honest sound money with a fixed inflation policy forever that cannot be manipulated by a…

Inflation is not some unfortunate built-in side effect of fiat but a deliberate policy choice by specific organizations and people. Why would they all of a sudden give up those policies and embrace the crypto-land?

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#215
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is being a BTC bro thumbing one's nose at empire? The winners from any kind of successful BTC movement will overwhelmingly be just a slightly different set of private, unaccountable, economically (and hence politically) powerful people, who are even more ideologically predisposed to libertarian fairy tales. BTC success in El Salvador would be a defeat for the vast majority of the populace, and a non-event for emp…

You're missing pieces of the puzzle. See: Leader of Libya, after discussing moving to a gold standard.

I'm not familiar, but can see how different things like that might be thumbing one's nose. There have been coups started over such things in Latin America in just the last couple of years. I'm totally unconvinced that El Salvador is a similar situation.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#216
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a reflex I see a lot when crypto comes up. Instead of refuting any claims of the article (which almost nobody in these comments has attempted to do!), any negative commentary on crypto is dismissed as the self-preservation attempts of doomed globalist elites or bitter people who missed the boat. If only people applied the same media criticism to crypto trade publications, which are awash in conflicts of interest…

>Instead of refuting any claims of the article (which almost nobody in these comments has attempted to do!) That's the bullshit asymmetry principle in action. Let's go ahead and fact-check the first claim in the article. >More than 91 percent of Salvadorans want dollars, not bitcoins. Following the source, we see this quote (google-translated from Spanish): >University indicates that, when presenting the option of bo…

Is this bullshit too? (honest question, i don't know)

> but industrial rates in El Salvador are US13¢ to US15¢ per kilowatt-hour. In one four-day period, the Berlín operation mined $US269 of bitcoin — and was estimated to have spent at least $US4672 worth of electricity doing so

because if it's not bullshit, the economics of this are firmly in the scam territory.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and it's fine. The optionality of getting rid of the USD which totally failed and destroyed latin american countries is in itself a great thing. IMF was an asshole with El Salvador during the pandemic, and it was not the first time.

I've seen more countries in Latin America destroyed by their own countries devaluing countries than by the USD. IMF loaned the El Salvador government 389 million during the pandemic https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/14/pr20155-el-s...

Why loan? US printed trillions of dollars and put into its own markets and helped its own people, but didn’t think at all of giving checks to other countries that use the USD.

Sure, other currencies have problems as well, that’s why it’s probably better to use the dominant open standard that has already shown that it can’t be easily inflated…it just makes sense.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#218
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing pieces of the puzzle. See: Leader of Libya, after discussing moving to a gold standard.

I'm not familiar, but can see how different things like that might be thumbing one's nose. There have been coups started over such things in Latin America in just the last couple of years. I'm totally unconvinced that El Salvador is a similar situation.

I hope with all my heart you are correct.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#219
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the focus on BTC is a bad thing too. But I also don't think stable coins only are the way. The new economy needs a mix of both.

They're not building a new economy really. It's a country with incompetent leadership and failed local currency, they don't seem to be able to pull it off. And regular folks are just trying to survive - they heavily depend on USD from relatives, but they pay massive fees to corrupt institutions. They are trying to work around that using BTC, but it also has high fees, and brutal volatility on top of that. If your mon…

> What they really need right now it a stablecoin on cheap network. It's not gonna change the world, but it's gonna solve their biggest problems right now.

That, and we could link the El Salvador and U.S. bank transfer ACH networks to make sending and receiving money cheaper. Considering 2.5 million Salvadorans live in the U.S.

Mexico and Panama have already done that.

Re: Bitcoin Failed in El Salvador. The President Says the Answer Is More Bitcoin

#220
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will restate that the incentives of making a geothermal cryptocurrency may be the highest positive impact we can have on the planet in our lifetimes. How do you exhaust a renewable? By driving up its price, which creates higher rewards on innovation that brings it down. So you don't exhaust it. Carbon taxes were a farce invented and promoted by academic managerialists with no understanding of human desire, as a way…

> How do you exhaust a renewable? By driving up its price, which creates higher rewards on innovation that brings it down. This is a naive position: geothermal, like hydropower, have only a few locations where they can be feasibly tapped. If that power is used by cryptocurrency miners, that will drive up the price until it's no longer cheaper than the alternatives and that region will not be attractive to relocating…

Thank you for indulging this because the opposition refines the idea. The objection I'm interpreting is that this will make the price of electricity in the region too high for anything else because of that demand. I'd say that in exchange for locating there, it provides a certain percentage of power at a loss rate, and this electricity supplied to the region is in effect a tax. Regional energy needs above a certain level would have to pay competitive prices for it.

If I have a hydroelectric dam or geothermal plant in a little remote mining town, and I put the output of whole thing towards miners for proof of work/waste/sacrificial block processing, that means the processors are taking something that is local there (hydro power) and refining it into value (blocks that facilitate economic transactions), and exports the value instantly via satellite uplink to the global economy (completed blocks, proofs, etc).

This means we don't have to transmit electricity hundreds of miles/km and lose it. We just refine electricity into compute processing, and export its service value as processed transactions right there. Since most of the renewable electricity is being used and isn't being transmitted, it doesn't effect broader energy market prices, and creates further incentives to innovate to optimize power use in the region.

I get the sense that most of the objections to cryptocurrencies are because the low bar to entry and decentralized nature makes them the wrong kind of Keynesianism, where instead of government printing money to pay hole diggers and hole fillers, we're using the same proof-of-waste algorithm, but on machines instead of people.

Speculators as a bugbear aren't a thing when you are building something either, so I'm not sure that's a material argument.

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