Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt • Hacker News Board

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#211

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:02 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #199

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, you can’t restrict the market and still keep it capitalist. In Seattle, new regulations on price increases along with an indeterminate moratorium on evictions is definitely going to make landlords really careful on credit checks. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the low end rental markets disappear completely as they become too risky to operate in as landlords.

At the very low end there will still be a market for Section 8 housing.

Ya, but it is going to suck for those who don't qualify for section 8 yet can't afford high end rents. Probably the government will come in fill those gaps long term.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#212

Post by monkmartinez » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:02 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #178

browningstreet wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where? Three years ago, I could've bought a house at 60% of current market rate now in my town of 700K. I wasn't in a position to buy that house (under median) then, and I don't want to buy it now given market conditions. The other issue is that the median housing price in my city is now above the FHA limit for this area... so no 10% down mortgages. Again, that wasn't the case 3 years ago. I also need to replace my l…

Where? Almost everywhere except for a few high cost cities. Take your pick. There are currently 71 homes for sale in Nashville, TN at or under $175K.

Well, if Nashville is like Tucson... or any other similarly sized city, those houses are likely not in a great part of town. We have 203 houses and condos under $175k in Tucson right now. I wouldn't live in any of them for their location(s) alone. Suckers from out of state have been buying... and I am sure regret the decision when they have homeless, tweakers and other ne'er-do-well's sleeping in the back yard or stealing anything that isn't bolted down.

Zillow has been buying in my neighborhood, and they overpaid... plain and simple. The offers my neighbors received were too good to be true. I mean, $50k to $150k over the z-estimate. Everyone in Tucson is laughing at Zillow all the way to the bank. Prices are going to crash here and its going to be brutal.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#213

Post by refurb » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:04 PM UTC

faet wrote: post #96

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have numbers to back that up? If anything, underbuilding came from a moribund housing market after 2008, as many left the industry and it took way too long to ramp up on talent when housing began to boom again (a lack of people skilled in building houses is still a problem). But I doubt this is an under building problem at all. Look at Seattle and the area, and there isn’t a shortage of new housing projects at…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/06/16/the-ho... The U.S. built on average 276,000 fewer homes per year between 2001 and 2020 compared to the period between 1968 and 2000, according to the report which was covered earlier by the Wall Street Journal. Had building continued at the same pace, there would be 5.5 million more units of housing, the report estimated. To make up the shortage, the NAR report sa…

What the the numbers for population growth versus number of housing units? Per capita?

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#214

Post by chasebank » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:04 PM UTC

harryh wrote: post #75

whimsicalism wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, youth here. The housing market remains screwed regardless of the actions of Zillow or Blackstone or whomever.

Decades of under-building due to restrictive zoning laws will do that.

While I don't disagree, there have to be multiple forces at play here. Take a town like Boise. They have very lenient zoning / building req's. If it was just zoning, their property market wouldn't be so out of whack. In addition to zoning, speculative investing, low interest rates, housing authorities, rent control, the list goes on and on.

IMO, CA prop 13 is just as guilty as restrictive zoning. We'll never get to see the other side of the experiment, the people of CA would never vote to remove it. Prop 13 interrupts the natural cycle of housing.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#215

Post by cudgy » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:04 PM UTC

drnonsense42 wrote: post #127

cletus wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We really don't have any direct, past precedent for this type of situation Yeah, we do. Massive housing speculation in the mid-2000s. > The fact that Zillow failed on their initial attempt does not imply that this can't work I'm reminded of Gamestop here. Around the time $GME first spiked and then fell you saw lots of people trying to encourage everyone to hold. What this ignored is that someone would be left holdi…

Real estate speculation has likely been around for thousands of years; it’s certainly not new. But, do you see any difference between A. individuals in the mid-2000s speculating on real estate based on individual whims and taking out mortgages they should not and B. large corporations with access to massive datasets previously unavailable, teams of PhDs trained to work on this, equipped with game-changing modeling ca…

Scenario B and A are more similar than you acknowledge. Both are fueled by low cost capital driving prices to unsustainable levels. Scenario B will be a problem too if/when interest rates rise and companies have insufficient cash flow from rents to pay the new debt service. In fact, scenario B may result in a deeper crash, since selling will be swift and by many actors at the same time since they are using similar valuation models. Scenario A was predominately driven by actual homeowners whom are more reluctant to sell in a down market.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#216

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:05 PM UTC

sigstoat wrote: post #143

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you comparing a 19 year period to a 32 year period? Ah, I see it is a per year measure. Well, it isn’t weird that land runs out for new subdivisions. What is left is to build more dense (replace single family housing with apartments or town homes). Still, why is it zoning per se that is the problem rather than just the market? They have the same pricing problems elsewhere in countries with building booms (eg…

> Still, why is it zoning per se that is the problem rather than just the market? dense housing is frequently not permitted by zoning. sometimes housing itself isn't permitted. > What is left is to build more dense (replace single family housing with apartments or town homes). yeah, that's exactly the thing that's banned in very many places where it would be most useful.

> dense housing is frequently not permitted by zoning. sometimes housing itself isn't permitted.

But where they are permitted, housing prices are still high. Higher even, like NYC and much of New Jersey near NYC. Is there a good example where increased density has led to lower prices, not higher ones?

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#217

Post by refurb » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:05 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #114

jackorange wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a fallacy perpetuated by unrealistic ideals. I bought a house for 175K at 24. I only make 50K a year. I don't have a college degree. Lot of people saying buying houses is hard, unrealistic, or impractical want to buy mansions with a 10 second commute to their workplace in silicon valley but the reality is most people are not living like that. Wage workers are still buying houses no problem in what are…

My ideal is for real housing prices to remain somewhat steady - ie. I don't like that I have to pay much more than inflation to get a house compared to what my parents pay. It'd be nice to be able to afford a house where I grew up without having to tie a ridiculous amount of my net worth up in this one very pricey illiquid asset, even if I could get the mortgage.

Real estate is local. Your expectations aren’t reasonable unless housing can be built as quickly as demand rises.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#218

Post by meragrin_ » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:07 PM UTC

faet wrote: post #96

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have numbers to back that up? If anything, underbuilding came from a moribund housing market after 2008, as many left the industry and it took way too long to ramp up on talent when housing began to boom again (a lack of people skilled in building houses is still a problem). But I doubt this is an under building problem at all. Look at Seattle and the area, and there isn’t a shortage of new housing projects at…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/06/16/the-ho... The U.S. built on average 276,000 fewer homes per year between 2001 and 2020 compared to the period between 1968 and 2000, according to the report which was covered earlier by the Wall Street Journal. Had building continued at the same pace, there would be 5.5 million more units of housing, the report estimated. To make up the shortage, the NAR report sa…

No connection to "under-building due to restrictive zoning laws".

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#219

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:07 PM UTC

dghlsakjg wrote: post #124

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have numbers to back that up? If anything, underbuilding came from a moribund housing market after 2008, as many left the industry and it took way too long to ramp up on talent when housing began to boom again (a lack of people skilled in building houses is still a problem). But I doubt this is an under building problem at all. Look at Seattle and the area, and there isn’t a shortage of new housing projects at…

You can make a rough comparison by looking at housing starts in Japan[1] vs USA[2] housing starts. Housing cost in Japan has been flat even in major metros like Tokyo. They also build 2-3x as many houses over the long term according to the data cited. Seattle is a weird example for me (anecdotally). When I lived there in 2017-18 I found the rental market to be great. The city had incentivized building rental units an…

Japan builds a lot of houses because they tear them down after 20 or 30 years. What is Japan's net gain (housing starts - housing ends) per year, not just the number of units started?

> When I lived there in 2017-18 I found the rental market to be great.

The market was weaker in 2017 because of all the new rental capacity that came online. That capacity has long been filled and rents are skyrocketing ATM.

Re: Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt

#220

Post by tibiahurried » Tue, Nov 02, 2021, 4:08 PM UTC

Homes like stocks are way overvalued. Homes are fueled by the frenzy of ownership at all costs, and stocks keep pumping at absurd levels.

Everything is extremely overpriced. Eventually, it will come down to common sense.

My friend has put all his savings and stocks to buy a 2b apartment. Myself, on the other hand, did not sell any stock and have invested all my savings. I rent a much bigger place, my rent is way lower than his mortgage and at least for me it will be more convenient to rent at least for the next 10y. After that, I will retire and move to a cheaper area.

Keep saying people have gone mad. Many fail and underestimate cost of ownership. Remember that a good chunk of your mortgage are taxes and interests, factor that when you compare rent vs buy.

That said, I do own properties that I rent out. But I bought them at sane prices. And they generate cash flow that I use to pay for my rent and other expenses.