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Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

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Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#211

Post by koonsolo »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #208
koonsolo wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as they have >1% backed by cash, they are doing better than any fractional reserve bank ;p.

"Better" for themselves --- no doubt. "Better" for others --- no way. To do "better", submit to an audit to show their cash backing. Instead they claim 100% backed by "something" that is not even clearly defined and has changed over time. And the exchanges play along and collude to keep the "market" price at $1USD.

I remember the big bank bailout of 2008. Tether... fiat... they are not that different.

Like I said before: problems that cryptocurrency fixes :D.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#212

Post by tablespoon »

notimrelakatos wrote: post #172
tablespoon wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I became convinced that NFTs are worth something after understanding that there is little difference between an outrageously expensive watch and a rare NFT. > One shows off your wealth in person, the other will let you show it off online. That's some pretty faulty logic, there. You're looking at it from the wrong end: it doesn't matter if you can imagine an object could be used as a wealth-status symbol, what actua…

They are stupid, but rich people sometimes wear them for a reason, if they ever get stranded in a messy situation and their wealth is confiscated, they can still sell their watches and other miscellaneous items to bootstrap themselves outta poverty zone.

> They are stupid, but rich people sometimes wear them for a reason, if they ever get stranded in a messy situation and their wealth is confiscated, they can still sell their watches and other miscellaneous items to bootstrap themselves outta poverty zone.

Huh? That doesn't make any sense.

1. "if they ever get stranded in a messy situation": I'm interpreting that as a situation where they need to barter the watch or use it as a bribe. However there's hard limits on how much they could realistically get for a watch due to the seller's desperation and the buyer's risk (I'm guessing a few thousand dollars), even if they paid tens of thousands or more for it. The cheapest gold Rolex you can find (or maybe even a knock off) makes far more sense for this use case than some elite status watch.

2. "if ... their wealth is confiscated": anyone confiscating their "wealth" to the point where they're in the "poverty zone" more than likely will confiscate valuables like $100k watches, jewelry, art, etc. Planning for that to be your "back up wealth" is about as dumb as planning on living in your garage if you ever lose your home.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#213

Post by Ologn »

ur-whale wrote: post #107
Ologn wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> having done absolutely no effort in understanding what Bitcoin is To see its value, I don't need to make an effort to understand what a pear is, or a bar of gold, or a house. I and others have looked at Bitcoin, and its trillion dollar market cap (which means Bitcoins are worth more than JP Morgan Chase and Johnson and Johnson put together) and realized it has absolutely no value. At least subprime mortgages, 1999…

> "realized it has absolutely no value." I wonder how long ago that "realization" occurred, and if you have since then "realized" how much the market has disagreed with your conclusion, or if you've "realized" the size of the opportunity loss?

The market also said 14 years ago that subprime mortgages were worth over $1 trillion. This year it says Bitcoins are worth $1 trillion.

There is a language of such bubbles - not, here is why it has value, like a loaf of bread or chair or bar of gold, but think about FOMO and that type of thing. There have been fly by night scams since Ponzi's postal reply coupons, or Dutch tulip bulbs and before that - I don't worry too much on missing out on the latest scam.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#214

Post by dnautics »

paxys wrote: post #207
dnautics wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if it eventually crashes, you had given a mechanism, and the mechanism was indeed the causal factor in the eventual crash.

The market always eventually crashes. The question is whether it will be tomorrow or 20 years from now. Unless your prediction also comes with a specific date it is useless.

Sure, but you can definitely lose a lot of money, give up, and watch the asset crash a few weeks after you called it.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#215

Post by Jensson »

trixie_ wrote: post #193
Jensson wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it is exactly as that guy said. Those transactions are illegal, you can't transfer money across borders without notifying authorities in most countries, and I am pretty sure you aren't notifying them when you do. If bitcoin ever becomes popular as a currency rather than just investment scheme then governments will come down hard on this and all transactions will get banned or made as inconvenient as bank transfer…

Have you been asleep because people are absolutely using crypto to move money internationally and legitimately. Governments, exchanges and banks have been working together to update the rules so that reporting is done correctly, that’s why we have things like KYC. Unless there’s a law that says ‘money must be transferred through banks’, please let me know

So do you tell your exchange the identity of everyone you send bitcoins to and receive bitcoins from? If not you are committing a crime and can face huge fines and jail time, since your exchange don't know who the user is of every bitcoin wallet. And if you do tell them that then I don't see the point of bitcoins, as then it becomes even more centralized and controlled than bank transactions, and you can still face fines and jail time if they think you gave them the wrong information about the person you sent stuff to.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#217

Post by dnautics »

anthonygd wrote: post #202
dnautics wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not arguing to abolish rich people, I'm just saying we should stop stealing from the poor.

In what way are you saying we steal from the poor? How does bitcoin steal less?

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/08/26/129451895/how-...

the fed creates 1.25 trillion and makes the assets that the poor seeks more expensive than it would have been if their price were allowed to fall. This is not nominally stealing from the poor, but it's activity like this that steals the value from the earnings of the poor, and steals their economic potential. It's stealing because it's not a voluntary contract and it's a one-sided power move, not a "natural consequence of the universe", like "inflation resulting from an earthquake" would be.

In this case, I am, of course, arguing against my interest, since this activity is propping up the price of the house I bought this year. But the fed does a whole lot of damage otherwise, mostly by printing money and giving it to the banks.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#218

Post by altrum »

graeme wrote: post #210
altrum wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twitter, if they build their verification correctly, should determine NFT's sovereignty via the smart contracts, not the chains. Thus, CryptoPunks will only exist on one chain & one smart contract.

But what stops someone from minting the same jpegs elsewhere? Possible there is some mechanism I’m unaware of

My thesis on this revolves around the idea of "brands." I wrote about it more in depth here: https://www.robertchung.me/people-dont-understand-nfts

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#219

Post by twelve40 »

dnautics wrote: post #217
anthonygd wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way are you saying we steal from the poor? How does bitcoin steal less?

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/08/26/129451895/how-... the fed creates 1.25 trillion and makes the assets that the poor seeks more expensive than it would have been if their price were allowed to fall. This is not nominally stealing from the poor, but it's activity like this that steals the value from the earnings of the poor, and steals their economic potential. It's stealing because it's not a voluntary co…

I'm of the same opinion on the inflated assets, somehow the USG (or the Fed?) figured out a way to inject tons of borrowed and printed liquidity into the markets without hyper-inflating the CPI, but inflating assets like equity, real estate, crypto, etc etc some of which (like real estate) can hurt real people - especially the ones whose wage went from $15 to $15 in the last 10+ years.

However, this does not seem like some unforeseen accident or an unfortunate side effect of fiat money, it seems to be a deliberate policy that will not quietly go away if Bitcoin becomes more fashionable. In addition to outright bans (like the ban on gold from '30s to 70s), there are tons of more subtle ways to either suffocate daily Bitcoin adoption if it becomes a threat, or find ways to control it such as KYC, tax reporting, etc at the main exchanges. Also, even if Bitcoin does replace fiat as the medium, the lending regulation will still remain - to lend money to you, anyone needs to first know who you are, calculate your risk, and charge you an APR for that risk, and that will probably remain regulated no matter what is used to move the actual transactions.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#220

Post by trixie_ »

Jensson wrote: post #215
trixie_ wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you been asleep because people are absolutely using crypto to move money internationally and legitimately. Governments, exchanges and banks have been working together to update the rules so that reporting is done correctly, that’s why we have things like KYC. Unless there’s a law that says ‘money must be transferred through banks’, please let me know

So do you tell your exchange the identity of everyone you send bitcoins to and receive bitcoins from? If not you are committing a crime and can face huge fines and jail time, since your exchange don't know who the user is of every bitcoin wallet. And if you do tell them that then I don't see the point of bitcoins, as then it becomes even more centralized and controlled than bank transactions, and you can still face f…

You should probably learn the rules yourself before trying to scare people with 'fines and jail time'. This isn't complicated. Reporting requirements are easy to follow and are pretty much the same as they've always been - https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/freq...
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