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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#211

Post by otikik »

throwaway984393 wrote: post #71
edrxty wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming you are very mechanically inclined but not particularly well versed to traditional construction, what does one do to learn more about this process?

Spend 3 months watching YouTube, you'll probably learn more tips than many contractors know. Then 3 months practicing small mock-ups - building forms, frames, stairs, windows, roofs, installing insulation, vapor barriers, sheeting, drywall. A fancy shed isn't a bad place to start. Plan on hiring a plumber, electrician, and HVAC specialist. Probably another 3-6 months to figure out all the paperwork.

The channel "Essential Craftsman" is finishing building a spec house. It's an American-style house, with timber framing. The host, Scott Wadsworth, knows a lot about contracting, and gives a lot of details and advice.

The playlist currently has 126 videos. It's here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGCC-_Cuhhw&list=PLRZePj70B4...

My impression after watching most of it: It might be "easy" to build your own house once you are an experienced contractor. If that's not you, then it's going to be a second job, or even a third job (building and learning). You will need to hire and manage subcontractors - the kind of job the contractor does. If you like that sort of thing and that's how you want to spend your time, go for it. I personally think that my time would be better spent finding a better job in tech and getting a promotion, so I can hire a professional to do all that.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#212

Post by mettamage »

mrcode007 wrote: post #125
renewiltord wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the increased prices. Oh, nice call out. I wish there was a way for me to get information on stuff like this in general. That is the proxies for the future like you say. Doesn’t have to be profitable. It could be stuff everyone trading lumber futures already knows. Just for curiosity and so I can validate my news source…

This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canada... This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. The price increase was a result of a usual 90 day delivery for new contracted lumber and nobody anticipati…

> This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone.

If you're up for it could you teach me a bit about this? I'm new to commodities (lumber, gold, etc.). My email is in my profile.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#213

Post by TeMPOraL »

20after4 wrote: post #208
TeMPOraL wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, another type of market assholery. Price discovery mechanism that's free for the builders, but very expensive for the would-be customers. About as nice as grading on a curve. I wonder if there's a space for business for an intermediary who would take on multiple builders for your single home, wait for them to do their price discovery dance, and then drop every one of them except for the cheapest one. Disrupting sc…

An intermediary like the mob, perhaps?

Do mobs do this?

No, I meant a legitimate intermediary. If builders get to overcommit and then cancel on their customers, why shouldn't a customer be able to do it too? The intermediary would just offer a service of doing that for you - booking multiple companies for your construction project, waiting until the last second, and cancelling all but one.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#215

Post by hnick »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #134
tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

If you already own a home that appreciated to $800k+ then trading in to buy at $1M doesn't seem as bad.

Prices seem silly to me here too (Australia) but a lot of it seems to be a combination of the perception that house prices just always go up, so you have to "get on the ladder" as they say and trade your way along. Each step doesn't seem to be a huge investment in itself. If you don't hop on, then you get left behind.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#216

Post by pasabagi »

Hendrikto wrote: post #205
okuboheavy wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately a container house will always end up both more expensive and worse than a traditionally built house. Containers are fantastic as containers but terrible for making a house with. As soon as you start cutting holes in them they lose a great deal of their structural strength which is their main advantage. Terrible to insulate and for condensation as well. The exception is if you’re happy with a single cont…

Could you elaborate on the high prices? I have a friend who plans on building a container house, and who is convinced that it will be much cheaper than a traditional house. Note that we live in Europe, where homes are build from stone and concrete, not wood and cardboard.

It depends, actually. Container prices are very volatile. If you're in the middle of a crash, a container house can be cheap. GP was correct however in pointing out they aren't particularly good for building houses that are actually nice to live in.

EDIT: There's a caveat here. Because containers are trivially transportable, you have lots of options when it comes to assembling off-site that could be kind of nice. For instance, if you were a carpenter with a nice workshop, and wanted to fit out your house in your shop instead of in a muddy building site, it's kind of cool that you can do all the fitting, then put the parts on a truck. This would also be cheaper. If I was self-building, this would be a big consideration for me, because it's not actually very nice working in a building site, and it's not particularly efficient either.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#217

Post by imgabe »

Bombthecat wrote: post #201
bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

Really? In germany they expect prices to go up until 2030 and then stagnate! Not go down! Stagnate!

Nobody has any idea what will happen in 9 years. That is too far away of a prediction to have any meaning.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#218

Post by netjiro »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #134
tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

If the buyers' dogma is that the housing market will always go up, it is a great deal to buy/build very expensive houses. They will always appreciate.

Reality will disagree at some point.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#219

Post by klondike_klive »

donjoe wrote: post #160
throwaway984393 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm picturing a web developer in 2023 wondering why everything is slightly tilted in his DIY house even though he used the poured slab as reference

Well, u can always transform: rotate(X°) in the end ;-)

And Ctrl-Z if you don't like the results.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#220

Post by Spare_account »

the-dude wrote: post #182
sgt101 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that this is the way to go because it's really hard to catch all of the things that can go on on site if you're not a professional. I built (ok got fellas in to build) an extension many years ago and I didn't catch that the drainage was inadequate until after they had completed and left - so I had to get that done separately and it wasn't cheap. Every builder I've talked to since has given me the impression t…

> that they would have spotted this upfront Of course they say that. What would you think if they said the opposite?

>What would you think if they said the opposite?

Not the same guy, but I might start to trust them more

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