Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress • Hacker News Board

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#211

Post by itsoktocry » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:31 PM UTC

gexla wrote: post #161

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

Pelosi is a master politician and the pandemic has been a fast moving situation. I could see Pelosi being against the stimulus and then fast switching based on changing currents in the minds of voters.

Great. Why does she have to buy shares in companies that align with her "switching"?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#212

Post by frankfrankfrank » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:33 PM UTC

diebeforei485 wrote: post #200

throwawaygh wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not just prohibit members of Congress of owning stock? They are some of the most powerful people in the world. Why is it so much to ask that a Senator or especially Representative serving in the most powerful legislative body in the world just take a cash position for 2-6 years?

I agree. Their wealth should be in a blind trust (unless they run the company or farm or whatever).

I am not at all opposed to this strategy either, but as you seem to imply, it would really need to be hardened against other corruption and schemes like that the blind trust has to be run by the same government office.

It is why I like the fact that they just have to announce their stock trades ahead of time, it still allows them autonomy, but also there is no sense in front running them if they are not trading on insider knowledge. Their performance should essentially be in line with the market, not like Mr. Gottheimer that seems to have tripled his net worth in FY2020.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#213

Post by slibhb » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:34 PM UTC

adolph wrote: post #186

slibhb wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this not already illegal? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOCK_Act

https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/04/16/17749...

> Still, two major elements of the law remain. Insider trading is illegal, even for members of Congress and the executive branch. And for those who are covered by the now-narrower law, disclosures of large stock trades are required within 45 days. It will just be harder to get to them.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#214

Post by koube » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:34 PM UTC

lordnacho wrote: post #124

koube wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok yes she did count the votes, determine that this was the highest number that could be negotiated, and then she worked to push the bill forward as she should have. And then the president tweeted out of nowhere which changed things. Trump's unpredictability is well known for anyone who has read the news at least once in the past five years. All of this is above board. What do you want her to do? Forget all of her po…

I'd want her to not speculate on the event, it looks bad. The system doesn't just depend on people not cheating, it depends on confidence in the system, judged by people who aren't experts in either trading or politics.

What did she do here that constitutes speculation? All she did was push for the highest stimulus she could get.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#215

Post by kennywinker » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:35 PM UTC

akudha wrote: post #153

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

Isn't Pelosi worth like 100 million or something? How much money is enough for these people? :( How quickly are these trades made public? Maybe we should just copy the congress people's trades and make some profit ourselves :P

Well, according to the US supreme court, money is speech - so more money more voice. As a concrete example, trump backed his own campaign to the tune of ~$66mil. Without it, I'm not sure he would have gotten as far as he did.

(I'm not endorsing this, I'm just saying these are the rules of the game that's been set up)

And to answer your second question - not quick enough for the public to act on it.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#216

Post by itsoktocry » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:35 PM UTC

ABeeSea wrote: post #118

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

> Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. This is not true. It’s very odd to see the kind of right-wing conspiracies based on outright fabrications spread on HN as literal truths. Here is an article from December 22 were Pelosi is calling for more stimulus: www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/22/trump-calls-covid-relief-bill-unsuitable-and-demands-congress-add-higher-stimulus-payments.html Here is her direct tweet dated 12/…

>It’s very odd to see the kind of right-wing conspiracies

It's even more odd to see the, "if you disagree you're alt-right/ a Nazi" mentality on HN.

Why does a member of congress need to day-trade stocks, let alone leveraged derivatives? It's absurd.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#217

Post by klyrs » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:35 PM UTC

throwawaygh wrote: post #194

psychlops wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just require them to announce their trades publicly 24 hours in advance. And let them manage their own finances. All these shenanigan's would disappear.

Why not just prohibit members of Congress of owning stock? They are some of the most powerful people in the world. Why is it so much to ask that a Senator or especially Representative serving in the most powerful legislative body in the world just take a cash position for 2-6 years?

I fully agree, and I'd like to extend it to their families as well. But... you ask "why not" and the simple reason is that only they could enact such a law. And even when the laws are in place -- Trump ran roughshod over the foreign emoluments clause, and there were zero consequences. Why would the richest and most powerful Democrats set such a precedent, only to have it turned around when they're in power and stand to profit?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#218

Post by jessaustin » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:37 PM UTC

munk-a wrote: post #168

sneak wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this presupposes the lie that the government is by, of, or for the (majority of the) people. This is a closed system, and most are not allowed anywhere near the control room. It, including these trades, is working as intended.

> It, including these trades, is working as intended. You can view the US in a lot of cynical ways but it was not created as a vehicle to allow the wealthy to continue to gain wealth at the expense of the poor. Insider trading between congressmen using their posts to fleece the public was never an intent of the government.

That is precisely the reason that Madison and his collaborators wrote the constitution (with debates kept secret from the public). The nation already had popular rule and a federal organization in 1781. The problem for the rich was that state legislatures kept helping out the majority of their voters, changing various rules about repayment of debts and so on. The constitution put an end to all that, as it was intended to do.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#219

Post by SilasX » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

ABeeSea wrote: post #204

SilasX wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. Stupid question: if you were expecting an upswing in a stock, wouldn't you get the most returns from an out of the money option? For a deep ITM you're paying the same as the underlying stock plus a tiny premium -- you might as well just buy the stock.

A large swing increases the IV which increases the premium (since the stock is now more likely to swing back down). Also decreases the risk in case the trade moves against you.

But then you'd own the option so you'd benefit from the volatility and can quickly cash out, right?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#220

Post by paulpauper » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

ProjectBarks wrote: post #175

I am curious why unusual whales did not compare performance to market performance over set periods. I looked around for some papers and was unable to find anything recent. CATO published a report showing there is weak performance difference between senators and their stock portfolio [1]. If they are outperforming this should 100% be remedied but I'd be open if anyone has comments that would contradict this report? [1…

he is selling a subscription. if it actually worked as well as he purports he would do it himself. way easier to collect recurring subs from gullible ppl.