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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#211

Post by arcticbull »

Closi wrote: post #28
bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actuall…

> As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable.

Bitcoin is negative sum because the miners constantly have to sell Bitcoins for real currency to pay their electric bills. The equilibrium point is when the new money entering the system is equal to the cash value of block rewards. The higher the price, the more new money has to come in to keep it stable.

Currently, Tesla's $1.5B investment is about 4-5 weeks of electric bills (lmao).

The point at which there are no new buyers is actually a negative slope point.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#212

Post by arcticbull »

Tepix wrote: post #54
Closi wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actuall…

You're not taking inflation into account.

Inflation is only relevant from the time you receive cash to the time you invest it in productive (or in the case of Bitcoin, totally unproductive) investments.

In fact, inflation is the only reason people put money into Bitcoin lol. If there wasn't any inflation, nobody would buy Bitcoin. Really makes you think.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#213

Post by [deleted] »

anm89 wrote: post #179
bhouston wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It at least is tied to a physical thing. There are then limits to how high gold can go in price as higher prices means more will come to the market to sell it because the higher prices are not viewed as sustainable. Whereas with bitcoin, it is fairly unmoored from physical constraints. There is no natural price for bitcoin. It could go up forever or drop to nothing and both are acceptable valuations that would be har…

Chuck .E Cheese tokens are tied to a physical thing. All money, currency and assets are based on faith on the continuing demand for that thing. All the other properties are incidental.

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#214

Post by desmap »

hbosch wrote: post #51
desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

A little superfluous. Couldn't we just assume that any blog post about any topic "might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior"? A news article critical of Amazon warehouse management could also be seen the exact same way.

That's absolutely true and every post can have a hidden agenda. However and in particular in this field hidden agendas are more common or let's call it pump and dump schemes. Cause and effect are so much closer together than in other fields, e.g. when I post how great Ruby is I cannot expect that the next day 10K new devs learn again Ruby haha and even if, I won't make any money over night. Maybe my Ruby course business (just an example, I don't have one haha) would get few more subscriptions but yeah.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#215

Post by desmap »

throwaway3699 wrote: post #69
desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

Any article posted here could cause market movements. We discuss public companies all the time.

Apples to oranges. Manipulating stock prices of public companies is much harder/more complex than of crypto currencies.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#216

Post by blaser-waffle »

ashtonkem wrote: post #57
aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Bitcoin is an awful currency for illegal transactions. A permanent public ledger waiting for eventual de-anonymization sounds like a prosecutors dream. I never understood why people described Bitcoin as an anonymous currency, it really isn’t. Arguably physical currency is much, much more anonymous than Bitcoin.

It's anonymous in the sense that I an use a craigslist-laptop bought with cash at coffeeshop wifi -- paying for that coffee in cash too -- and not have it traced back to me, John Doe.

Plus there isn't any way to order 500 hits of acid from 3 timezones away in-person without a lot of issues. Lotta ID checks at the airport, and lots of cameras on highways.

If something goes weird with the darknet shipment I walk, feign ignorance, burn the laptop. If I'm carrying drugs on a plane and get busted then it's on me, no question.

But yeah, if you didn't pull good OpSec in 2014 it's possible the feds might link it to you in 2023, or whenever they get around to it.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#217

Post by loceng »

judge2020 wrote: post #165
loceng wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a bad faith exaggeration argument you just made: we don't need to know everything someone has financial interest in, just if it's related to the topic. It's why VCs, for example, if writing a blog post about a company - they will write a disclaimer that they own shares in the company. We have laws to require people to disclose if something is sponsorship as well - because it changes the value of what's being s…

> we don't need to know everything someone has financial interest in You wouldn't. You would just know that OP owns GOOG if the article is about GOOG. Only HN/the brokerage would have their entire portfolio. > It's why VCs, for example, if writing a blog post about a company - they will write a disclaimer that they own shares in the company As far as I can tell this isn't a legal requirement - shareholders have no ob…

"As far as I can tell this isn't a legal requirement - shareholders have no obligation to disclose their position, ..."

Very much seems like this should be remedied, it's part of integrity for people to know if you have a financial motivation behind what you say - at least if you want a society that has integrity and not as easily open to manipulation; it's ultimately why advertising is bad, the people didn't deserve to get the attention they've getting - and why in part Tesla has done so well - they created a good enough product to get word of mouth and receive the attention they deserve (for the good and bad) to receive.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#218

Post by viklove »

Shorel wrote: post #182
kirse wrote: post #83

As I watch the total crypto market cap shoot through the roof over the past year, one thing I've been wondering is what will stop a global "bank run" on the exchanges when/if something like this does happen? I was reading thru Coinbase's own insurance wording, and it's clear they dance around it by saying: To the extent these funds are held as USD in U.S. banks, they are maintained as pooled custodial accounts at one…

If it is not in your own personal wallet, you don't have it. A friend recently got his BTC stolen in one of these online wallets, which are not wallets at all. I advise no one to keep their money in exchanges.

Let me guess -- he didn't have 2fa enabled?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#219

Post by viklove »

justapassenger wrote: post #112
Hitton wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. So is US dollar.

Dollar is powered by one of the biggest economical, political and military power in the world.

The USD also had some difficult beginnings, and through luck and force of will has been established as the de-facto world currency. Saying that no-one will ever challenge the king is foolish, short-sighted, and naive.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#220

Post by viklove »

ffggvv wrote: post #193
anm89 wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be lacking an understanding of the most basic principles of bitcoin, ie permissionless decentralization backed by proof of work which would not function with existing SQL databases.

no im saying the actual practical use. keeping track of who owns what can be accomplished way better with a centralized database. the only thing novel is that its decentralized and inefficient but the average user really doesnt care about that.

Your misunderstanding of bitcoin seems to boil down to your lack of understanding of what "decentralized trust" is and why it's useful. Maybe start there, but you probably won't because you sound extremely angry.
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