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u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

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Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#211
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at DFV's account. He's been talking about GME since mid-2019.

I don't think anybody is denying that what I am talking about is the astrotrufing on reddit with commercial interests and unregulated crypto currency. My question is what stops somebody pulling off the same trick on WSB and how do we know? How can we know? Does the SEC know how to tell?

But can anyone even do that? With crowds this big there has to be a number of sophisticated investors who'll be able to call anyone spewing BS out very early on.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#212
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

idk. It seems like a savings account could do the trick. You can save a healthy retirement by putting a portion of your salaries in a savings account in your local credit union. As a bonus—while you are not using that money—other members of your credit union can use this savings in a form of a loan, to buy a home, start a business, etc. The idea of my retirement being at the will of some hedgefund manager is not appe…

> You can save a healthy retirement by putting a portion of your salaries in a savings account in your local credit union. You must be joking. My credit union is offering .1% on savings, and it’s not like they’re some extreme outlier, rates are incredibly low across the board. You are actively harming your future by doing this, you aren’t even keeping up with inflation!

No I’m not joking, nor am I harming my future. I don’t have to make an optimal amount of growth on my savings to afford my retirement. There is no harm in owning less money then if I had used them to swindle more workers out of their profits on the open markets. In fact, every dollar you make as a result of not working is a dollar somebody else worked for and didn’t get. You are harming workers by earning money on the stock markets.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#213
post #158
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if some big players have carefully arranged to have large short interest but to be hedged against large upswings. This could be an expensive position to carry, but it could be quite profitable if people thought they were squeezing an unsqueezable short.

Right. My biggest concern with these plays, at this point, is that they're not taking into account the possibility of bankruptcy. There's a ton of "they have to buy it, if we hold all the shares then it'll go to the moon, 1k, 2k, 4k". (1) The sheer variety of financial vehicles available to professional investors is staggering, and while the initial DD was really good, we probably missed something at this point, and…

>I think these realizations are why much of the r/WSB discourse over the past two days has shifted from "we're going to be millionaires" to "i'm just in it at this point to stick it to the man".

I think that's more the activist crowd that has joined over the past week. I have a hard time believing the original r/WSB people care more about making a political statement instead of money.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#214

On wsb u/deepfuckingvalue showed he still holds 50,000 shares and 500 deep ITM call options. He has secured a profit of $13.8 million dollars, and his remaining open position is valued at $45 million. I would caution people to not quickly fall into the "if he's still in, I'm still in" meme. He has secured a $14 million bag, regardless if the stock goes to zero he's already secured a life changing amount of money, he…

> The overall market is stressed, things are getting weird and I would not be surprised if this is the beginning of another stock market crash. GME short interest was still greater 100% of shares outstanding as of 1pm 1/29 (S3 Shortsight numbers). If forced to cover, short holders will have to liquidate other assets. Could those liquidations force more liquidations in a positive feedback loop? Hopefully no, but certa…

Time to short everything.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope one day we will see an IPFS link

Why do people constantly have to re-invent the wheel? :( Freenet [0] has been providing censorship-resistant, anonymous, decentralized hosting for 20 years - and is still in active development! You could upload it to Freenet without any server whatsoever and it would stay online for as long as it is popular, even if your machine goes offline. And you'd be anonymous while doing so! [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr…

Is it really anonymous? How does it compare to Tor and i2p?

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#216

On wsb u/deepfuckingvalue showed he still holds 50,000 shares and 500 deep ITM call options. He has secured a profit of $13.8 million dollars, and his remaining open position is valued at $45 million. I would caution people to not quickly fall into the "if he's still in, I'm still in" meme. He has secured a $14 million bag, regardless if the stock goes to zero he's already secured a life changing amount of money, he…

... and if bitcoin is any guide, people can hodl forever, bacause they are no longer doing it blindly. Who will blink first?

I still don’t understand the purpose of Bitcoin. Especially when another one can be created. Dogecoin anyone?

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#217
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GME is absolutely going to crash and everyone knows it. There was a mod post just today reminding everyone to be ready. The stock is worth $10-20 on it's merits and that's where it will land. We just don't know when. The chance of this as a contagion that brings down indexes seems very unlikely.

I think this whole episode might cause the next market sell-off: (1) fund degrossing as the initial driver - already happening (2) everyone is being reminded of 99/00 mania (3) uncertain regulatory environment surrounding trading (4) worries of systemic risks created by bubble GME going higher is likely to trigger it more than it dropping off right now

I think there's also evidence that the "short bubble" might be more widespread than we think. I'm not entirely convinced that Melvin was able to unwind their 50mln short position and drive the short interest down on Ortex (they're the best thing we've got in terms of guessing how much true short interest there is, because exchanges only report once or twice a month on a week or more delay) by covering. Equally likely in my mind is that Citadel bought Melvin's book thinking that it had a better plan than unwinding the short just yet. Instead, "hide" the short someplace that Ortex isn't looking and that the exchanges won't report on for another 3 weeks. That would be their order flow with a company they are in a unique position with - Robinhood - where lots of the buy orders are coming from. If you were Citadel and a little unscrupulous, you could immediately route every sell order on RH to the market but keep the buy orders for yourself. This positions you as short to Robinhood users, and you get to send those sold shares back to the book you bought from Melvin to unwind that short. So, the short does still exist, but now it's not visible to outside brokers. Outside brokers, when Ortex calls them up, will say, no no, Melvin covered a bunch today and short interest actually went down! So Ortex publishes a lower SI number. But, that short didn't actually just disappear. Either Citadel, or Robinhood, now are short to their customers.

Are there other companies that have "hidden" short interest in this way? Are some of the big unexplained market moves in companies without short interest some of these "hidden" shorts unwinding before everyone finds out?

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#218
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wsb can remain irrational longer than the market can remain solvent. That was a comment by a poster which I find funny.

This is a common aphorism, attributed sometimes to Keynes: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/

I'm not sure you understood the web saying.

Its meaning has nothing to do with Keynes' quote. It's instead a clever play on words that refers to the recurrent accusation (and subsequent meme) that WSB are a bunch of autists/retards who don't have any idea of what they are doing and thus are doing it entirely wrong, and the defiant reply from the WSB crowd where they state they are ready and able to continue doing it for far longer than what hedge funds, who are throwing rivers of cash at the problem, are able to withstand no matter the cost.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#219
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because he's still in doesn't mean that it's actually worth $300 on the fundamentals. I could definitely see the argument that $20 was undervalued, but it's plain to see that the short-squeeze is now part of the calculation of value. There is no way that GameStop has an actual fundamental value of $300 per share. That price is clearly inflated, and in a few weeks will decrease, probably to somewhere above $20, b…

What is TSLA’s fundamental value? The price is bonkers.

More bonkers than Amazon?

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#220

He posted his daily update today, he has not sold his shares through all of this chaos. Talk about "diamond hands". https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l846a1/gme_...

it will keep going up. Good for him. This calls into doubt the stronger forms of EMH given how many people have made so much money with what is effectively a momentum play. I would not be surprised if he becomes a billionaire soon with other investments and GME.

He'd have to find some other very cheap stock with very cheap far out of the money calls with a high potential for rising 11000% in a year.

I'm taking suggestions.

I don't know if there is anything cheap available on the options market these days.

I don't think GME is going to stay at this price for very long, but on the other hand the retails trader are only ~25% of the volume (Matt Levine's latest column) and on balance selling, so I think the stock price is driven by big players, and "what do they know that I don't?"

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