Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

hsj.co.uk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

211–220 of 391 posts

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#211

Post by Aeolun »

jpxw wrote: post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

> the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses

I’m not sure I see what kind of upside they see for anyone if this happens, much less the government.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#212

Post by [deleted] »

laqq3 wrote: post #21
jiggawatts wrote: post #9

If a mutant strain of COVID-19 becomes twice as deadly, this "merely" doubles the pressure on hospitals. A constant factor like this can be dealt with. However, an increased rate of spread (R factor) is a change in the parameter of the exponential curve, and cannot be dealt with by any sub-exponential response. The only thing that could possibly work is to change the factor. Rapid vaccination or lockdown. It's imposs…

Good analysis but small nitpick: the use of "Θ" in Θ(a×exp(R×𝑡)) is slightly inaccurate (or is it the use of "a"?) because the set of functions Θ(a×exp(R×𝑡)) is the same for all positive a.

[deleted]

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#213

Post by matthewmacleod »

LudwigNagasena wrote: post #206
matthewmacleod wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a consistent taking point among the more egregious parts of the “lockdown skeptic” crew and it is, of course, absolute bullshit - it’s based on shallow comparisons of numbers that are not comparable. If you do decide to promote this talking point anyway, flag it with the appropriate disclaimer from the NHS: …caution should be exercised in comparing overall occupancy rates between this year and previous years.…

>In general hospitals will experience capacity pressures at lower overall occupancy rates than would previously have been the case. Why?

Hospital capacity has had to be organised in new ways as a result of the pandemic to treat COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients separately and safely in meeting the enhanced Infection Prevention Control measures. This results in beds and staff being deployed differently from in previous years in both emergency and elective settings within the hospital.

Literally from the link.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#214

Post by sojournerc »

matz1 wrote: post #128
d4mi3n wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That'd make more sense if heart disease had a significant chance of killing people breathing the same air as you.

Good thing that the chance of being killed by covid infected people breathing the same air as me is very very low.

How can someone downvote this? 99.9% is low odds...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#215

Post by Aeolun »

jpxw wrote: post #61
e40 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A colleague made the point that we need more pictures of overflowing morgues and ICUs and (like is happening in LA) people waiting in an ambulance for 7-8 hours (and some of those people dying because of it). Just like the US government banned (discouraged?) pictures of caskets coming back from war. These images need to be on the news and on news websites 24/7.

I agree that this would be effective against most people. But when this happened in Italy, a large number of the conspiracy crowd just said the photos were faked.

Life was easier when it wasn’t so easy to fake a photo...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#216

Post by cawlin »

polote wrote: post #151
patrec wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking only for myself, I think your opinion is idiotic based on some simple back of the envelope math I did many months ago (when the UK announced its herd immunity plan), relating to hospital capacity, likely peak case numbers, proportion of cases that would need hospital treatment or die and some simple minded guesses about knock-on effects for the rest of the health system. I have not bothered to redo these cal…

if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

Just casually let ~150 million people die. Cool.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#217

Post by dj_mc_merlin »

patrec wrote: post #141
polote wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well then why do some people think it is idiotic?

Speaking only for myself, I think your opinion is idiotic based on some simple back of the envelope math I did many months ago (when the UK announced its herd immunity plan), relating to hospital capacity, likely peak case numbers, proportion of cases that would need hospital treatment or die and some simple minded guesses about knock-on effects for the rest of the health system. I have not bothered to redo these cal…

> So let me ask: on what basis did you arrive at your opinion?

I will answer this, although more than likely my comment will get killed soon:

I believe that the high-risk people (elderly, immuno-compromised, people with diseases that put them at risk) should go into voluntary quarantine if they wish, together with a government package to support them. Anyone who wishes to undergo lockdown can also do so, although with no package beyond what they would normally get. The rest can do as they please.

This will not stop the ICU beds from filling up obviously, which is why they should be triaged to high-risk patients, frontline staff, and people who underwent quarantine and lockdown. When capacity allows, other people too. The people who chose not to lockdown deal with it, or die.

This is probably unimplementable in the real world. That said, it would mean the lowest amount of economic stress (which kills silently) for the following years. On some level, it also appeals to the human need for cause: those people that died of corona and didn't get treatment "did it to themselves". The high-risk people do not get sacrificed.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#218

Post by frereubu »

polote wrote: post #151
patrec wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking only for myself, I think your opinion is idiotic based on some simple back of the envelope math I did many months ago (when the UK announced its herd immunity plan), relating to hospital capacity, likely peak case numbers, proportion of cases that would need hospital treatment or die and some simple minded guesses about knock-on effects for the rest of the health system. I have not bothered to redo these cal…

if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

> so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

No, you sacrifice an uncertain percentage of the population (but probably larger than you suggest because healthcare systems would be quickly overwhelmed by a massive spike in cases) to both death and long-term sickness and disability, but for what? Lockdown causes people to lose their jobs, children to miss school, and others to suffer problems with mental health (although to use your phrasing, this would just be "a few percent" of the population) but it saves people's lives and health.

I'm also really disappointed that people don't get the idea that people dying and having long-term health issues doesn't screw the economy too.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#219

Post by pcurve »

polote wrote: post #138
jpxw wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re allowed to think it, it’s just patently idiotic. Our hospitals would be overwhelmed, the morality rate would skyrocket amongst COVID and non-COVID patients alike.

So now the number of free icu beds in hospital and number of death are the only kpi we look at to make decisions? It is crazy how people opinion like mine is fully ignored in Europe. today we tolerate flu deaths so that people can live freely, why shouldn't we tolerate covid deaths to live freely?

For every 1,000 diagnosed covid case, roughly 14-18 of them will eventually die. Rich or poor countries alike, that range has been consistent.

Wouldn't you say that's rather staggeringly high number to simply let things run course?

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#220

Post by ppod »

matthewmacleod wrote: post #153
ppod wrote: post #77

People who are making claims about hospital capacity should compare them to the same times in previous years. The data is all available online: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...

This is a consistent taking point among the more egregious parts of the “lockdown skeptic” crew and it is, of course, absolute bullshit - it’s based on shallow comparisons of numbers that are not comparable. If you do decide to promote this talking point anyway, flag it with the appropriate disclaimer from the NHS: …caution should be exercised in comparing overall occupancy rates between this year and previous years.…

>it is, of course, absolute bullshit

I'm sorry that I briefly lowered the tone by linking to data, thanks for your help.

Post reply on HN