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San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

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Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#211
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In most places, hospital are not overloaded If you speak to any doctor or nurse they will disagree with you. While we might not be at a breaking point for number of beds, the staff that have to put themselves in harms way do have the option to just quit. When that starts happening in mass we are all screwed.

I spoke with a nurse while at gym I attend. She spoke about how the hospital she's at is not close to be overwhelmed. She also talked about she doesn't wear a mask outside of her job as they have training and n95 masks which work in a hospital setting. But outside of a hospital environment the masks provide little protection, especially cloth masks.

> But outside of a hospital environment the masks provide little protection, especially cloth masks.

My experience of talking to medical professionals is that they consider a number like 50% reduction in infections "very little protection", because they (correctly) would use a mask providing 99% protection or whatever in any situation where real protection was needed. But outside of a hospital setting, epidemiologically, a 50% or even 20% reduction in reproduction number makes a big difference to the overall dynamics of an outbreak.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#212
post #61

I understand the sentiment, but I think it's pretty clear in retrospect hard lockdowns were the correct way to address this. This half-assed "wear a mask and social distance if you want" stance just made the economy sputter for a whole a year. I've seen this in France twice, where they've oscillated between doing nothing and doing a lot, a couple brief lockdowns can reverse things quickly even after things have gotte…

Europe had hard lockdowns. Not China-hard, but pretty hard. Cases surged again. You mentioned Asia. I saw this headline today: "South Korea's Health Minister Describes Seoul As A 'COVID-19 War Zone'" By US standards, their case count is still incredibly low. The point is they haven't actually been able to contain it, either; they're just acting sooner and more aggressively for the second wave. Apparently New Zealand…

> Europe had hard lockdowns. Not China-hard, but pretty hard. Cases surged again.

In Australia, hard lockdown looks like the following:

1. International borders closed to all non-citizens, permanent residents or essential travelers

2. State borders closed per 1

3. City "borders" closed per 1 — happened in Melbourne

4. You can't leave your home for any reason not deemed essential

5. If you do leave your home for an essential reason, you must stay within 5km of your home, or have a job/emergency/essential imperative to travel further away

All of the above is enforced by police officers.

In Melbourne, they even closed off a high-risk, high density building for a while, just because the health authorities deemed it a risk.

Could you expand more on what these European "hard lockdowns" mean? Because at no point during this pandemic has any of the above happened in any American state or city, at least not to my knowledge.

The Australian federal government also enacted Job Keeper to suspend work hours yet keep working people employed, and took additional steps to ensure as many people as possible could remain on lockdown without a source of income. This was as important as — if not more important than — the hard lockdown enforcement measures themselves.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#213
Travel is the obvious unaddressed issue in the US. This recent surge started with a big spike in the midwest then slowly spread to the rest of the country. Without interstate travel restrictions these lockdown end up being wasted painful sacrifices by millions of people over many months. No matter how restrictive one region is, they could succefully eradicate the virus, but the virus will just incubate in a less restrictive region and come right back.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apparently New Zealand still has single digit cases most days. NZ hasn't had any new cases in the general population for quite some time. The cases that NZ has been reporting are all recent arrivals undergoing the mandatory 14-day quarantine in an isolation facility. Both Australia and New Zealand have shown (multiple times) that it is entirely possible to completely eradicate this virus using nothing more sophisti…

Australia and New Zealand are islands where the borders can be closed much more tightly than elsewhere and imported goods arrive mainly through container shipping. In the EU, the need to ensure regular freight truck traffic and move hundreds of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers from east to west means that a comparable lockdown could not have been achieved.

> Australia and New Zealand are islands where the borders can be closed much more tightly than elsewhere and imported goods arrive mainly through container shipping. In the EU, the need to ensure regular freight truck traffic and move hundreds of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers from east to west means that a comparable lockdown could not have been achieved.

I wonder about this. I'd expect freight truck traffic in China to play at least as big of a role in distribution there that it does in Europe. China is a giant connected piece of land, and if their numbers are to be believed even in the slightest, it's clear China was able to keep Covid under control to a much greater extent than the western world.

Australia never fully halted interstate freight truck traffic, as it was deemed essential. I've heard Covid tests were given to truckies at state borders, but that seems possible for US states or European countries to do, even with limited resources. Is freight truck traffic really to blame for Covid spread, then?

And although Australia largely shut itself off from foreign crop labor, and is struggling to harvest crops given this, there's not all that much appreciable damage that I can see. Perhaps this was really a good season to err on the side of going short handed. Prices will go up, but the juice is worth the squeeze, it seems.

Also, Hawaii is an island, as is the UK. Alaska would seem to have similar advantages to an island state. Yet these islands are doing very much more poorly compared to Australia and New Zealand.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Places like UK did a hard lockdown for 6 weeks and kept schools open. It completely worked. Yes, kids can transmit the virus, but it appears that as long as the ADULTS limit their interaction with other adults, kids have only a limited way of encountering infections.

The 2nd UK lockdown wasn’t all that effective. Schools open = all the pain for significantly reduced gain.

On italy they only opened schools for children in age groups for which having them at home would be a major burden for working parents (either work from home or essential workers).

Arguably this reduced the pain, while also reducing the effectiveness of the lockdown measures. It's a fine balancing act. It's hard to compute precisely, we're not yet good at it as a society. That said, expecting people to work while having children at home and at the same expecting grandparents to stay isolated, puts people on a very tough spot. How do people cope with that in places that kindergartens are still closed?

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#216
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

H1N1 2009 only killed 12000 Americans. COVID-19 killed 12000 Americans last week . People are avoiding restaurants because their own self-interest keeps them away. They don't want to get a fatal disease that's already killed 1‰ of the country. This aversion has little or nothing to do with government directives.

>People are avoiding restaurants not in Bay Area. These new nice outdoor areas with heaters etc. have been packed all these months. > This aversion has little or nothing to do with government directives. the businesses closure is direct result of the government orders. It is evidenced by how people flocked back to businesses when they [partially] opened. A well beyond middle age neighbor drove to San Mateo county for…

This is simply illustrative of the fact people are driven by self-interest, and virtually never take group outcomes into consideration when making choices unless forced to under the threat of violence.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia and New Zealand are islands where the borders can be closed much more tightly than elsewhere and imported goods arrive mainly through container shipping. In the EU, the need to ensure regular freight truck traffic and move hundreds of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers from east to west means that a comparable lockdown could not have been achieved.

> Australia and New Zealand are islands where the borders can be closed much more tightly than elsewhere and imported goods arrive mainly through container shipping. In the EU, the need to ensure regular freight truck traffic and move hundreds of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers from east to west means that a comparable lockdown could not have been achieved. I wonder about this. I'd expect freight truck tra…

> It's clear China was able to keep Covid under control

China's lockdown involved e.g. welding the doors of apartment blocks shut and forcing the populace to install a spyware app on their phones. Claiming that a Western country "could have just done like China" is basically saying that that Western country could have just junked all its civil liberties.

> And although Australia largely shut itself off from foreign crop labor, and is struggling to harvest crops given this, there's not all that much appreciable damage that I can see.

Things are different in the EU. After decades of the single market, keeping people fed absolutely relies on getting those harvests done with imported labour.

> I've heard Covid tests were given to truckies at state borders, but that seems possible for US states or European countries to do, even with limited resources.

Tests were in short supply for a long time. By the time they were available, it was too late to lock down as effectively as Oz or NZ. Again, you underestimate just how special those two countries are among Western nations.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia and New Zealand are islands where the borders can be closed much more tightly than elsewhere and imported goods arrive mainly through container shipping. In the EU, the need to ensure regular freight truck traffic and move hundreds of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers from east to west means that a comparable lockdown could not have been achieved.

> Australia and New Zealand are islands where the borders can be closed much more tightly than elsewhere and imported goods arrive mainly through container shipping. In the EU, the need to ensure regular freight truck traffic and move hundreds of thousands of seasonal agricultural workers from east to west means that a comparable lockdown could not have been achieved. I wonder about this. I'd expect freight truck tra…

Freight truck traffic definitely did play a role in spreading Covid within China - it's how they ended up with an outbreak in Beijing, the city they'd most aggressively protected against the spread of the disease. That outbreak in turn appears to have been seeded by another outbreak that went entirely undetected until it spread to Beijing. China's apparent success in keeping Covid under control is one of the biggest mysteries of the entire pandemic; their methods don't seem like they should work, and every so often there's a little sign that something isn't right like that undetected outbreak.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#219
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really in the nature of NZ, either. Our cultural heroes often feature a sense of "bugger them" if they're not inventing something. * Hone Heke, kept cutting down a flagpole to mess with the British * The Southern Man popularised by a beer company, who prefers the company of his horse. * The Good Keen Man popularised by Barry Crump, who prefers the company of the hills and his rifle. * James MacKenzie, a sheep rus…

I'm from Australia, and I've lived in the US, and now live in Canada. From experience, the difference is entirely in the way our societies are setup, and therefore how we treat each other. In NZ/Oz/Canada, we have healthcare for all, affordable tertiary education, and we all pay higher taxes to help strangers. Looking out for each other is built into the makeup of our countries, systems and society. In the US, it is…

As a frequent traveler between AU/NZ/US/CA, I find the residents of Commonwealth countries tend to be compliant with the law in ways Americans simply aren't. I can't speak for Canada on this, but at least for AU/NZ, there's also zero gun culture. I'm still not sure how much of an impact that has on the public's psyche, but lack of gun culture does seem to point to trusting more in social institutions. As an outsider, my perspective is that Aussies/Kiwis understand viscerally at levels unseen in American culture — and possibly Canadian culture — that nature can kill you, and that the authorities really are a good resource to draw upon when your life is on the line, which it was during the Covid pandemic.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#220
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>People are avoiding restaurants not in Bay Area. These new nice outdoor areas with heaters etc. have been packed all these months. > This aversion has little or nothing to do with government directives. the businesses closure is direct result of the government orders. It is evidenced by how people flocked back to businesses when they [partially] opened. A well beyond middle age neighbor drove to San Mateo county for…

This is simply illustrative of the fact people are driven by self-interest, and virtually never take group outcomes into consideration when making choices unless forced to under the threat of violence.

you have to show what is specific self-interest here and how it conflicts with specific group outcome. Otherwise it is just an old Soviet style propaganda where people were coerced into doing senseless things because of supposed great common good.
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