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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#211

Post by [deleted] »

whimsicalism wrote: post #37
Robotbeat wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

[deleted]

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#212

Post by nradov »

hosh wrote: post #124
simonh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

Aircraft carriers are a weapons platform that requires both tech prowess and organizational culture to wield. For this reason, America has more than a single carrier task force. Russia and the handful of others could only field a single one. (Instead, Russia had focused on building up their submarine fleet). The carrier groups have allowed the US to project both military and soft power around the world. But that is j…

The PLA is also a voluntary service organization. Technically China still has a conscription law, but in practice they have more than enough volunteers to fill the ranks and end up turning away some applicants.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#213

Post by smallnamespace »

whimsicalism wrote: post #135
zepto wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is wealth uncorrelated with intelligence though? You write as though that is obvious, but it seems like most new billionaires we hear about on HN etc, are pretty intelligent. It’s obvious that there are a lot of intelligent people who do not become wealthy, but that’s because becoming wealthy requires not just intelligence, but being in the right place at the right time at the right age. I.e. it requires the right ki…

> new billionaires we hear about on HN etc, are pretty intelligent. New billionaires are the ones most likely to be intelligent (although again, measures of intelligence can't be detached from the opportunity you were provided), this is entirely consistent with the point I'm making.

Most billionaires are self-made, and that proportion has increased since the 1980s:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/luisakroll/2018/10/03/the-forbe...

> Looking at the numbers over time, the data lead us to an interesting insight: In 1984, less than half the people on The Forbes 400 were self-made; in 2018, 67% of the 400 created their own fortunes.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#214

Post by whimsicalism »

smallnamespace wrote: post #213
whimsicalism wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> new billionaires we hear about on HN etc, are pretty intelligent. New billionaires are the ones most likely to be intelligent (although again, measures of intelligence can't be detached from the opportunity you were provided), this is entirely consistent with the point I'm making.

Most billionaires are self-made, and that proportion has increased since the 1980s: https://www.forbes.com/sites/luisakroll/2018/10/03/the-forbe... > Looking at the numbers over time, the data lead us to an interesting insight: In 1984, less than half the people on The Forbes 400 were self-made; in 2018, 67% of the 400 created their own fortunes.

To be clear, I'm not saying that the US is entirely without mobility. Particularly for the billionaires, most of that wealth is not inherited - although much more of that mobility is from low millionaires -> billionaire than it is from poverty -> billionaire.

You deleted your other comment about income and IQ. Worried that it would reflect badly when someone in the future would trawl through your account?

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#215

Post by whimsicalism »

roenxi wrote: post #142
whimsicalism wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

A related point. the US economy tries to fix this every so often by sending the people directing capital flows bankrupt (notably, circa 2007). The US government keeps stepping in to fix capitalism when it looks like there might be change.

I mean yeah, our government is totally captured which definitely hurts mobility and efficient capital allocation.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#216

Post by zepto »

landryraccoon wrote: post #206
zepto wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? The US wasn’t the only country with democracy before World War 2.

There have been democracies since the ancient era. I'm saying that before World War 2 you wouldn't generally consider Democracy to be the default paradigm for how nations were governed.

That’s reasonable, but I don’t think it’s fair to say everyone else just emulated he US.

There were many other democracies, and pro-democracy movements that preceded WW2 and had nothing to do with the US.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#217

Post by soperj »

GradientAssent wrote: post #68
statquontrarian wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why care who "wins" or who's "bigger"? Our goal should be the greatest wealth for the most people for the whole Earth. This is accomplished with innovation and peaceful trade. One "side" discovers a new technology and the whole world can benefit. The primary driver of innovation is a competitive market in which individuals innovate through the pursuit of self-interest. The 20th century was a large experiment finalizi…

One reason to care which is bigger is the effect they each will have on the norms of governance around the world. Superpowers tend to nudge the rest of the world's governments to be more like them (see Britain and the US over the last 300 years). Do you want the rest of the world to be more like China or more like the West? China has shown the world what it considers to be acceptable norms of governance: unrepentant,…

>unrepentant, ongoing genocide against the Uigers, snuffing out liberal democracy in Hong Kong, and denying the sovereignty of a liberal neighbor in Taiwan.

You're quoting Britain there as someone to look to, and at the same time mentioning genocide...

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#218

Post by whimsicalism »

eloff wrote: post #145
whimsicalism wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

That's an interesting angle I haven't heard before. Your thesis could be restated as hereditary wealth / rising aristocracy concentrates wealth based on lineage and not meritocracy, thus unlikely to be in the hands of those most able to put it to work effectively. This inefficiency in the market would lead to lower future growth potential. I'm going to ignore the mention of IQ because a) It's largely hereditary so I…

> I say superficially because whenever you tax something you change people's behaviour, like moving their assets into a trust to avoid estate taxes.

To me, evasion is a solvable problem at the national level if we, again, hire & assess for merit w/ competitive pay in our enforcement agencies. Unfortunately, much of the government-especially the portions of government that would enforce this- is captured, so pretty unlikely chance of that.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#219

Post by GradientAssent »

soperj wrote: post #217
GradientAssent wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One reason to care which is bigger is the effect they each will have on the norms of governance around the world. Superpowers tend to nudge the rest of the world's governments to be more like them (see Britain and the US over the last 300 years). Do you want the rest of the world to be more like China or more like the West? China has shown the world what it considers to be acceptable norms of governance: unrepentant,…

>unrepentant, ongoing genocide against the Uigers, snuffing out liberal democracy in Hong Kong, and denying the sovereignty of a liberal neighbor in Taiwan. You're quoting Britain there as someone to look to, and at the same time mentioning genocide...

I guess the present day somehow seems more relevant?

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#220

Post by throwaway34241 »

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

If you're interested in this question I think the recent articles by Ray Dalio might be exactly what you are looking for.

He founded and ran the world's largest hedge fund and in addition to studying the issue has had personal interaction with high level Chinese leaders going back decades, so he seems pretty well informed about both the macroeconomics in general and China specifically.

In addition the very question you're talking about seems to be currently his main point of interest and he's been writing a series of free articles about it on linked in ([1][2] and others).

The articles go very in depth and I can't do justice to them here. But I got the impression that he expects some of these things:

- China to surpass the US as the #1 economy. Beyond that, eventually become a developed country, so probably wildly surpass the US economy considering the population is 4x as large.

- Them to continuously increase in relative technological and military power relative to the US.

- For them to possibly supplant the US dollar as the world reserve currency, which could have implications on the value of the US dollar

- Not for them to give up their hierarchical government

[1] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chapter-6-big-cycle-china-its...

[2] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chapter-7-us-china-relations-...

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