No Recent Automation Revolution • Hacker News Board

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#211

Post by jkinudsjknds » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:27 PM UTC

Automation is really just a drop in the bucket compared to better processes. The difference between new tech companies and legacy businesses is that the actual processes in the tech companies are better designed to begin with and require much less human labor. It's pretty tough to automate legacy business processes. The best you get is gross macros in a fancy package. There's a semantic difference between the kind of automation you think of when imagining robots vs. email, but email is way more powerful.

We absolutely do not need new AI to achieve automation gains on the lowest hanging fruit. We really just need new entrants to competitive spaces. Even for physical labor tasks that do require actual robots, its changing the task to adapt to available tech, not updating the tech to master this old task.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#212

Post by wayoutthere » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:28 PM UTC

cynusx wrote: post #170

The frequent problem with these types of reports is that they only focus on one part of the geography (USA). That said, I recall reading a report that mostly middle class administrative and coordination roles are eliminated due to digitalization and dedicated software. Leading to negative wage pressure on the middle class. These are repetitive human jobs like looking at a bunch of papers and creating a report. Manual…

Very much so; the current wave of automation is taking semi-skilled middle-class jobs and replacing them with low-skilled minimum wage jobs that can be filled with gig workers.

High-skill jobs are still there, but the middle is rapidly being hollowed out. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the middle class is shrinking as a result.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#213

Post by toomuchtodo » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:29 PM UTC

awestroke wrote: post #135

lnsru wrote: post #124

I have very interesting process when taking vacation. Automation does not mean robots from movie “I Robot”, some software can do the job too. To take time off I must open shitty software, enter my vacation days, then print the sheet and sign it. My manager signs it too. Then I bring it to secretary, she signs too, confirms the date in shitty software. Secretary sends paper form to the HR lady, she checks, if it’s ok…

That's already digitalized and automated in sane companies. Use something like bamboohr

The problem is not the tool. The problem is the people who, without broken processes, would not have jobs.

The purpose of the system is what it does.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#214

Post by jkinudsjknds » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:30 PM UTC

wolfram74 wrote: post #200

barrkel wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unearned income is unfulfilling and the people who think they earned it resent it being taken from them, even if it's only particularly large because there's a big market to sell into and a big winner effect in the market structure. I don't know the answers here but they don't look like free market capitalism or redistributive socialist utopia, and actually I think this axis or spectrum is an actively harmful frame f…

If unearned income is unfulfilling, we should raise the estate tax, why should the children of the poor be so blessed to need to work while the children of millionaires and billionaires be saddled with the curse of ennui?

Most people believe they've earned what are basically economic rents.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#215

Post by throwanem » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:33 PM UTC

barrkel wrote: post #183

throwanem wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unearned income is unfulfilling in the context of a default assumption that the ability to earn an income is a valid measure of worth. There are other, better, measures.

Making something that other people are willing to reward with the fruits of their own labour is about as honest a social measure of worth as you can get outside of friends and family.

Yes, and that metric is distorted out of all utility by the necessity of maximizing the specifically monetary value of labor, as a condition of survival and stability - and even then, those are frighteningly contingent if they're achievable at all.

There are other kinds of value, too.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#216

Post by lotsofpulp » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:34 PM UTC

goatlover wrote: post #207

taneq wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Social Media Manager" is a new job that has arisen in the last several years, for instance. How many people worked on assembly lines in, say, 1910 vs. 2010? How about as a percentage of an average manufacturer's staff? How many people worked as social media managers in 2010? I'd bet that (adjusted for population growth) for every 100 assembly line workers in 1910 you now have 2-3 stressed out engineers plus a bunc…

Sure, but somehow the total number of jobs has still managed to increase from 1910 to 2010. Automation shifts the work humans do. So far, it hasn't replaced the need for humans to do work, or we'd have a shrinking job market, which we didn't have prior to Covid (a temporary situation).

Wages for the bottom 3 quintiles have been stagnating or growing well below those of the top quintile for decades. It is because they have lost their ability to negotiate for higher wages, due to an unfavorable shift in demand and supply curves.

They are contending with additional supply of labor from other countries where people are willing to work for less. In addition, software and the ability to scale at zero cost has made people more productive, so one person can do much more than before. And it also leads to big companies getting even bigger meaning people only have a few employers to choose from.

This change also happens at a faster rate than before in history, so while in decades past, technology obviate people slowly enough that they were able to retrain and do other things, now it could be moving too fast for people to retrain (or perhaps they’re simply not capable of learning the new task).

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#217

Post by Err_Eek » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:37 PM UTC

throwaway38235 wrote: post #156

Err_Eek wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dad was salty during communism that he didn't get more "respect" for his labor (highschool teacher) than your run of the mill factory worker. I remember during the early 90s how he was hopefully saying that once the country exits the "transition" phase, we will all have the dignified life of middle class westerners. Meanwhile the country still does the same in international rankings as it did during the time of ou…

> he didn't get more "respect" for his labor (highschool teacher) > we will all have the dignified life of middle class westerners What a sad irony. If he was a highschool teacher in the US as now he could be struggling to pay rent and medical bills and get more or less the same "respect".

At the time there were two issues: - (I think) school teachers were better paid than now, relative to the average population - People in communism mostly knew the US through Hollywood films, which portray a way more glitzy version reality. Especially so in the 80s in popular sitcoms like Dallas.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#218

Post by lotsofpulp » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:39 PM UTC

bildung wrote: post #143

krapp wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're talking about the Western world, and in particular, the politics and culture of class (of which "work being part of people's identity" is a part) then Judeo-Christian influence is the only influence that matters. And memes like the dignity of labor, the just world fallacy (that wealth and poverty have inherent moral dimensions) and welfare (or leftist/secular ideology) breeding laziness definitely have their…

I'm agreeing with everything you wrote (with the minor differentiation that this is mostly rooted in particular protestant branches, not Christianity per se), but in my understanding the opposition to UBI is not primarily about dignity, but about identity, hence my comment. People were displayed as their being their job, not just generic underlings to the king, on egyptian stela from 3000 BC.

> but in my understanding the opposition to UBI is not primarily about dignity,

Opposition to UBI (as well as healthcare for all, proper schooling for all, nutritional food for all, etc) is about not wanting to pay higher taxes and maintaining a competitive edge in being able to obtain resources over others in society (or the world).

Those with more wealth (or who think they are capable of gaining more wealth) want to prevent others from having it, predictably.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#219

Post by Nimitz14 » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:40 PM UTC

lm28469 wrote: post #201

mc32 wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough, so not capitalism, not communism. What political system might be capable of meeting these requirements? Is it the political equivalent of unobtanium or vaporware? Im not trying to be a smartass; I want to know what the answer might look like. It doesn’t have to be a treatise. Just something consistent with a chance at succeeding with non-ideal people.

We have that thing in Europe called socialism, it brought us paid vacations, public health care, paid parental leaves, paid sick leaves, less working hours, &c. In a way all these things are wealth redistribution. It's actually funny to listen to political debates of the 60s and 70s because people were planning that if automation were properly handled we'd be working like 2 days a week while keeping our standards of…

European society is based on capitalism. It is disingenuous to claim it is based on socialism. And regardless, income inequality is also a problem in Europe.

The person you are replying to was making the obvious point that noone knows a better system than the current one. Adding a bit more wealth distribution just means tweaking the system, rather than creating a new one, which is what the parent poster implied was needed.

Maybe you should try reading some of those hundreds of books, because you clearly haven't if you think "What happened is that the rich got richer and the poor have to work shittier and shittier jobs, work longer, retire later, &c."

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#220

Post by jtbayly » Wed, Jun 10, 2020, 1:42 PM UTC

wayoutthere wrote: post #212

cynusx wrote: post #170

The frequent problem with these types of reports is that they only focus on one part of the geography (USA). That said, I recall reading a report that mostly middle class administrative and coordination roles are eliminated due to digitalization and dedicated software. Leading to negative wage pressure on the middle class. These are repetitive human jobs like looking at a bunch of papers and creating a report. Manual…

Very much so; the current wave of automation is taking semi-skilled middle-class jobs and replacing them with low-skilled minimum wage jobs that can be filled with gig workers. High-skill jobs are still there, but the middle is rapidly being hollowed out. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the middle class is shrinking as a result.

That’s an interesting take on Uber that I don’t think I’ve seen before.

I know Uber’s end-goal is automation such that taxi drivers aren’t necessary. What I didn’t realize is that it is route planning automation that allowed them to move from dedicated drivers to gig drivers.