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Remote work means anyone can take your job

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Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#211
post #19

The implication from this litter of thinkpieces on HN is that proximity to a tech hub (SV/NY) is your only competitive advantage as a knowledge worker—your butt is close to their chair. This runs counter to the other prevailing wisdom about SV/NY, which is that those areas are hubs—and essential to the tech industry—because the world's top talent is drawn to it. So which is it?

So you think every node.js / rails developer that happens to live in SV and work in a startup is the next Linus? Of course they're lots of ordinary developers working and living there. And yes, being born American / European is a huge advantage over 80% of the rest of humanity.

Seriously. There are a ton of wannabes up there (entrepreneurial and technical) just like there are wannabe actors in LA. A lot of incredible talent missing at those companies because people simply have zero desire to live there. I can appreciate the Bay Area but it's just not my style (weather, culture, lack of diversity in industry, etc). I'd bounce to wine country or the forests up north if I lived up there now.

Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#212
Assuming a theoretical point of view as pointed by the article, there are multiple pieces still missing in my head.

Lets say a traditional software team has these 5 types of people: - Design / XD - Software Engineer - Software Manager - Product Manager - Data analyst or Data Scientist

If you assume all of these roles can be collaborated on a async basis and from within different timezones - that makes progress extremely slow right? Someone emails, someone has a question, someone has a clarification, etc.

Now if we assume same locale, that drastically changes the game since everyone can communicate at the same time even if remote. Therefore, my point#1 is, a global distributed teams that are across time zones really don't make sense.

Keeping in line with the article, let's say a company decides to outsource all these different professions. That would mean, you're even outsourcing management, people that need to oversee are needed to the same region. How high does one go? All the way to directors of each respective field or Vice President? Maybe we go as far as till we reach an owner for a service or product for that region. This is what happens basically today (pre-covid). Each region has a focus in a deliverable. India team is working on X, China team is working on Y, etc. So point#2, outsourcing has to happen not only for people that are executing work, but for people that are overseeing the execution as well.

That finally gets me to the last point. If we have these vertical's of people localized to specific regions, you cannot have specific outsourcing of jobs. You would need a batch outsourcing of jobs from IC's to managers. However, each region a company is in, requires locale specific folks to solve specific problems. Amazon US is very different than Amazon India pay after you receive package, for example. So my point#3, I don't believe we will see too much of a shift for jobs to other countries. We might see a shift in jobs from California to Texas for example.

By now, you might understand where i'm going :-). If you hired enough of a presence in mid-west, suddenly, you now have a pool of candidates that competitors, and other companies can also hire from. You as a company, unless you can spin an entirely new vertical, will back-fill employees from the mid-west again since the remaining team is located in that region. Thereby creating a pocket of talent. Enough pockets of talents will create many companies that want to hire that talent. This is what we effectively have today in major cities. The only difference is, you have a larger area vs a smaller city.

Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more highly qualified you are the more at risk to offshoring your job is. A long time ago, Albany Molecular, a contract research organization, highlighted they were based in Albany, NY. A shithole, yes, but a shithole with cheap cost of living. Nowadays, the PhD jobs are based in Shanghai, Szeged and Hyderabad. The only thing that's left stateside is regulatory functions and support. You don't need a PhD for that…

Speaking to web technologies specifically I have found this to be opposite at my prior employers. There is a lot of incompetence in web related technical jobs which makes it hard to trust new candidates/employees and offshore employees tended to be less trust worthy in regards to competency. At my current employer, though, the offshore developers in India have really found the secret sauce and are really nailing prod…

Sometimes that secret sauce is simply good local management: they shield their DEVS from noise (not only physical) and are more focused and also more specialized. A small team of focused DEVS is all it takes to maintain a codebase.

Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#214
post #96

The bigger issue right now is the total cratering of the world economy. Then there's also the unknown resets which will come with that. Trends which were in slow motion and maybe barely noticeable may have gone into overdrive. Now we don't know where we're at. To say that you're role is at risk because anyone around the world can take that role is as much guesswork as anyone else can give. This is just another predic…

> Will remote work go MORE globalized while everything else possibly reverses?

I think this is the right approach. Global bits, local atoms.

Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#216
The basic premise of this post is "the key edge that you have over your worldwide competition is that you are local". That premise is false, or at least heavily overblown.

If the only detail barring you from working for a company which otherwise totally really would hire you, then there are often times way around this already. I moved half-way around the world for my current job. My competition was therefore people from all over the world. My job won't be "taken" by "anyone" now more than pre-Covid.

Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#217

> Now, you can either hire someone from San Francisco and subsidize their obscene rent, or you can hire someone from Omaha. You can get the same work done, but cheaper. What would you choose? This depends on the assumption that there's a big supply of workers in Omaha that are able to step in and do the job. I'm an outsider, but I'd guess that the people worth $600,000 Facebook salaries are already living there and w…

> I'd guess that the people worth $600,000 Facebook salaries are already living there and working for Facebook.

Yes! I think this is true. However, the more interesting development to me is what happens 10 years from now. The engineers who are making $600k in SF are typically 10 years into their career (if not more). This is the biggest knock against expanding into places like Omaha- there's plenty of entry-level talent, but little, if any, mid-level to senior talent.

In Edmonton (Canada), where I'm from, there's an awesome university that graduates tons of CS grads who immediately head to the Bay Area, because they can make 4x more there. As such, most of the work in town isn't sophisticated- there's lots of web development shops, but not many jobs doing sophisticated engineering at the level of, say, Facebook or Google.

As a result, you're right, there's not many people who could get a $600k offer from Facebook. But! If these companies start supporting remote work, we could see tech ecosystems developing, and we could see new grads staying in these places, and building ecosystems around them.

To answer your question about:

"why, if there were such big savings on the table, these companies hadn't already moved in this direction."

I think the answer is as follows:

1. New grads need more experienced talent to help mentor them and ensure that they're seen as productive.

2. All of the companies' offices have historically been in certain locations, so we either need to a) have the new grads move to somewhere we have experienced talent, or b) need to have experienced people move to where the new grads are.

We see both of these- companies regularly will start new offices once they can get sufficiently experienced people to move there, but only when they can get that. This is the main reason (aiui) why many of the large tech cos in the Bay Area are concentrated in the Bay- there are no senior level people who are interested/willing to move.

Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#218
A lesson learned in other markets applies here: you can avoid a race to the bottom by effectively competing in one of the many dimensions other than price. If you don't want to be a commodity, you have to be able to answer the question of what is the one thing you do better than almost anyone else, and sell that. Geographical proximity isn't a great answer in a market where everyone is going remote. It doesn't even need to be technical in nature for a developer.

Different companies place inordinate value on different things, so it is partly a game of matching your exceptional dimensions to companies that place a lot of value on those dimensions. How many people here are using the cheapest laptop that will technically do the job? The developers that are at risk are those that are "average" in every dimension that an employer might care about.

Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#219

> Now, you can either hire someone from San Francisco and subsidize their obscene rent, or you can hire someone from Omaha. You can get the same work done, but cheaper. What would you choose? This depends on the assumption that there's a big supply of workers in Omaha that are able to step in and do the job. I'm an outsider, but I'd guess that the people worth $600,000 Facebook salaries are already living there and w…

Big IT does not care, they make bank despite bleeding stupid money. Reorg after reorg, projects canceled left and right, expensive consultants onboard not pulling their weight, cloud costs through the roof, the list goes on and on and on.

Before covid most companies were hiring like crazy, it is not either/or, they want all those workers, both the people in SF and in Omaha too.

Re: Remote work means anyone can take your job

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same set of people aren't saying both things. The people who believe SV and NY have top talent are exactly the ones who think remote work is great. I'm excited about the trend; a bigger pool of talented engineers for me to work with means I'll be able to accomplish more and have to compromise less on my career goals. The people who worry that remote work will be a disaster are the ones who never believed SV engin…

> The people who worry that remote work will be a disaster are the ones who never believed SV engineers were more talented in the first place. Or that technical talent does not really contribute to success as much as the prevailing theories believe?

If someone says SV engineers are talented, but only in some technical way that doesn't really matter, I'd classify that as a claim that they're not really talented.
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