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Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

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Re: Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

#211
post #207
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were there many of these old trucks and buses around in Kathmandu in the 1920s?

no, but it was still a sprawling metropolis, one assumes there was a lot of wood and coal burning going on. Here's a picture from Kathmandu in 1920. It appears to have poor visibility, but it's unclear from the picture whether or not that is pollution or weather. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kathmandu_Basantapur_Du... here's another near the same period that shows similar levels of visibility: https://upload.…

"Here's a picture from Kathmandu in 1920. It appears to have poor visibility, but it's unclear from the picture whether or not that is pollution or weather."

You don't think it's the quality of a 1920 photograph?

Re: Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

#212
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sort of meant the reverse. You make a good point about importance of biodiversity downthread, but wrt. things like plastic pollution vs. CO₂, I'd argue we should just ignore the former. The reasoning is: - We know the ecosystem is thoroughly polluted by microplastics, but there is no evidence that it's in any way harmful. It may be, but we haven't seen it so far. - We know that without mitigation, climate change is…

Really interesting reasoning. I'm almost tempted to say "extremely unscientific". 1. "no evidence of microplastics being harmful" sounds very much like WHO's "no evidence of human transmission". Personally, I'd say that in both scenarios, the outcome we should be most worried about is tail risks - what if we suddenly realize the situation is much worse than we imagined, but it's already too late... 2. Is "climate cha…

I'd argue the two basic heuristics I apply in this and similar cases are pretty scientific:

1) Strong effects are obvious in the data; conversely, if you have to dig deep and play with statistical significance to prove there's a connection, the effect is very weak - it's a scientific curiosity, sure, but "to zeroth order of approximation" you may as well say it doesn't exit.

2) When ascertaining the possible impact of something in the future, your estimate will be more accurate if you have a clue about mechanisms of action involved.

Microplastics seem to fail both heuristics at the moment - there isn't any obvious impact that we've measured, and there isn't any obvious mechanism of action that could imply serious danger. There most likely are issues caused by them - however, we've been living with them for decades now, so if this was an emergency-level threat, we'd probably see something by now.

Compare that with worrying whether coffee/red meat/artificial sweetener/vaccine/5G will give you cancer - maybe it will, maybe it won't, but if the chance of it was remotely worth worrying about, it would be blindingly obvious in the data by now. Contrast that with "no evidence of human transmission" - not enough data to check heuristic 1, fails heuristic 2 due to similarity to other coronaviruses with known mechanisms of human-to-human transmission.

Climate change passes both #1 and #2. There is known, first-principles mechanism of action that you can dig into like into a fractal, if you want to explore consequences for various aspects of the ecology and society. There is a known mechanism of action that makes it into an actual threat - food shortages, mass migrations, political unrest, leading to wars, starvation, suffering and death. We know how fragile our civilization is (present COVID-19 situation makes a lot of weak points clearly visible). There's lot of historical data supporting the above and the threat evaluation - for instance, we're seeing how increasing average temperatures are impacting agriculture and habitability of some regions on Earth.

One more clarification: the reason climate change is dangerous is not because it threatens plants and animals. It's because it threatens human civilization. We care about nature not because it is, but primarily because we need it to live. Moreover, since almost no one would enjoy suddenly being thrown back to preindustrial age on a thoroughly broken planet, we can safely say that the concern is about survival of existing civilization, not survival of human species (not to mention, you can't fix the damage without technology, and you won't have technology when civilization collapses). Human civilization is very fragile.

Also: just saying "tail risks" isn't meaningful. You have to actually estimate the sum of the tail to determine whether it's even worth paying attention to. Which circles us back to heuristics #1 and #2, which - in my opinion - say that microplastics are a secondary issue to climate change.

Re: Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

#213
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sort of meant the reverse. You make a good point about importance of biodiversity downthread, but wrt. things like plastic pollution vs. CO₂, I'd argue we should just ignore the former. The reasoning is: - We know the ecosystem is thoroughly polluted by microplastics, but there is no evidence that it's in any way harmful. It may be, but we haven't seen it so far. - We know that without mitigation, climate change is…

Really interesting reasoning. I'm almost tempted to say "extremely unscientific". 1. "no evidence of microplastics being harmful" sounds very much like WHO's "no evidence of human transmission". Personally, I'd say that in both scenarios, the outcome we should be most worried about is tail risks - what if we suddenly realize the situation is much worse than we imagined, but it's already too late... 2. Is "climate cha…

You've articulated perfectly something I've been struggling with on conversations here on hackernews in your last paragraph. People can be incredibly short termist when it suits their agenda but some things are dangerously irreversible if we get them wrong. I liken it to a child dismantling a toy to see how it works and then not being able to put it together again but on a civilisation impacting level.

Re: Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

#215
post #94
post #17

This proves Earth is flat!

so why am I only able to see the tip and not the whole mountain?

A flat earther will probably argue that it must mean that the height of Mount Everest is a conspiracy since it's clearly the same height as a regular mountain.

Re: Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

#216
Lads, this happened for a single day, it was lovely but is not a regular event. The city still has pollution issues however many now agree that it's caused from burnings that occur in northern India.

I've lived here since the earthquake, have only seen Everest from my rooftop in the capital one single time.

There are about 99% fewer vehicles on the road as we are in complete lockdown however the brick kilns that are located in the valley are probably the bigger polluters. Local neighbourhood garbage pickup guys regularly burn plastic.

Re: Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

#217
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you made me curious and I googled. Not quite most everyone, it rather seems to be regional: under 20% in Northern Europe, 30-60% in rest of Europe, up to 80% in Middle East. Source: https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/180/4/EJE-1...

Huh, weird. I would have assumed deficiency would be inversely proportional to amount of sunshine. Do people in northern europe really experience so much more “sun on skin” time or is it wholly diet driven?

From that link:

> The generally adequate vitamin D status in the Nordic countries is due to the use of cod liver oil and supplements (46) and vitamin D fortification, leading to a great improvement in Finland during the last decade (47).

Doesn't surprise me; here in the South we don't get deficient enough to cause obvious issues, so we don't pay attention to it.

Re: Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

#219
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you made me curious and I googled. Not quite most everyone, it rather seems to be regional: under 20% in Northern Europe, 30-60% in rest of Europe, up to 80% in Middle East. Source: https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/180/4/EJE-1...

Huh, weird. I would have assumed deficiency would be inversely proportional to amount of sunshine. Do people in northern europe really experience so much more “sun on skin” time or is it wholly diet driven?

At least in Sweden all children are given supplements, up to at least the age of 5, and just anecdotal, many of friends and grownups in my extended family do so too.

Re: Mount Everest is visible from Kathmandu for first time in living memory

#220
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That leads to the next question: why would Corona-stay-at-home stop people from cooking food or heating their homes?

Perhaps they are using natural gas instead of biomass?

Not really. Wood or coal stoves are still very much in use in villages. At least that's what I saw living in many developing countries for the past two decades.

Btw, burning biomass would not change the problem. Wood and charcoal is biomass too.

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