Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you elaborate on your preferred strategy?
Performance is just budgeting. It's opportunity costs (versus expected return on the investment). It's time, materials, risk/scheduling uncertainty, and in many cases, externalities. Interestingly enough, I don't think you need to explain any of this to game designers. They seem to know this. It even appears to be the dogmatic in some circles. When you are way over budget, every cost needs to go on the table, but you…
All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
211–216 of 216 posts
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#212I think making medical claims is quite punishable if one doesn't have a license. This could easily be extended to include journalists and politicians as well as other areas of science (if the stakes are high enough) It would work like this: For each field there has to be a committee similar to the ones medical practitioners already have. If the behavior is not up to standards they do an inquiry and if need be the cre…
> I think making medical claims is quite punishable if one doesn't have a license. Well, it's tricky. If you say "I don't believe covid-19 is a serious problem", that can't be punishable as there is a large spectrum of legitimate thinking as to its severity and what trade-offs we should want to make. Such a statement is not remotely like practicing medicine without a license, but some will argue that it is if it coul…
We have professional communities who get things wrong regularly but the rest of the time they do a very good job. Professionals have a tendency to get things right sometimes.
In the media we see journalists interview experts and twist their words into click bait. Journalists loves to attribute the work to professional sources. There is an abundance of professionals who could operate a thumbs up/down interface. Doing this comes with a certain risk to their career. When hiring someone you can pull the articles endorsed from the database. The choice to voice their opinion depends on how much they care about a topic.
The article can be published regardless. The banner will just say something like: "Zero security experts endorsed this article."
Then we will see how many dieticians are willing to put their name under the "Eating chocolate every day can help you lose weight" publication. The endorsement doesn't have to be permanent but the log will be.
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Gun rights" are totally bogus. Let's enumerate rights: "Life." Okay. "Liberty." Gotcha. "Pursuit of happiness." Yep. "Private property." Might need some asterisks on that one, but sure. "Carry a weapon around in case I might need to murder another human being very quickly." ??? It's been this incredible PR campaign based around the fact that people are illiterate and don't know what "bear arms" means (jargon for "se…
The actual right is to self-defense - itself a derivative of other fundamental rights. Access to effective means of self-defense follows from there, just as abstract freedom of speech has many derivative rights like freedom of the press.
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
The actual right is to self-defense - itself a derivative of other fundamental rights. Access to effective means of self-defense follows from there, just as abstract freedom of speech has many derivative rights like freedom of the press.
An abstract right to freedom of thought allows for extensive time and place restrictions plus libel laws, etc. The right to self-defense (which I will concede) allows for restrictions on weapon ownership and usage.
In legal terms, the standard for restrictions on free speech in US is "strict scrutiny" for this exact reason. So while we have time and place regulations, there are also many safeguards in place to ensure that those aren't abused. To give one example, permits can only be required once disruption reaches a certain level (e.g. a solo demonstration on a sidewalk shouldn't need one), and for cases where fees are associated with said permit, it cannot be imposed on somebody unable to pay, or for whom it would be a considerable burden.
I can assure you that the vast majority of proposed gun control legislation would not pass strict scrutiny. This is evident even from the degree to which policies vary in other countries - for example, when it comes to "assault weapons", the definitions vary significantly even in US state laws. Yet there's no obvious correlation with any practical effects if you compare, say, UK (which bans all semi-autos) and Germany (where you can own an AR-15).
The laws that do seem to matter are mostly those regulating the owners directly, and even then it depends a lot on the policy. E.g. universal background checks for each purchase sound rational in theory, but evidence on their effectiveness is lackluster. OTOH a license to possess, that has to be periodically renewed, has a much more profound effect.
Czechia is a particularly interesting case, being very permissive wrt "what" - comparable to US, even with shall-issue concealed carry! - but much more stringent on "who", and this seems to work just as well as UK's tight-fisted approach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_law_in_the_Czech_Republic#...
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think making medical claims is quite punishable if one doesn't have a license. Well, it's tricky. If you say "I don't believe covid-19 is a serious problem", that can't be punishable as there is a large spectrum of legitimate thinking as to its severity and what trade-offs we should want to make. Such a statement is not remotely like practicing medicine without a license, but some will argue that it is if it coul…
> While saying that "chloroquine phosphate is a good prophylactic for covid-19" to someone who would believe it certainly should be punishable (as attempted murder perhaps! and regardless of whether the speaker is a licensed physician!). I would disagree. As an example in the history, saying "The Earth is a sphere" was once punishable by death. Fake news and pseudo science has always existed, but censorship is not a…
Assuming the author has better things to do others could provide value by endorsement. We have star ratings and thumbs all over the web, it works but the rocket scientist gets as many votes as the 12 year old under an article about rocket science.
I've often had the discussion on wikipedia. The funniest one was 4 so called established editors repeatedly overruling the Nobel prize winner in his area of expertise on an issue that according to the guidelines is left up to editors. Initially he argued the text he added was common sense. When trying to add sources there was only cursory mention in top journals (they assumed it was common sense for their reader) everything else was considered not RS. It struck me how easy it would be to use [for example] university profile pages to host a public key. It doesn't even have to be visible. The WP editors argued it impossible but its easy.
Then them professors can go around and rate peoples publications the way they always do. As a reader I would much enjoy the endorsements.
It's much better than just my own opinion crudely put together without expertise. The journalist probably doesn't know anything either. I wonder, what are we even doing? (me and the journalist) If neither of us can see the false-positives or -negatives nor can do the probability calculations... what is the point of the exchange? I see much greater potential with little extra effort.
Re: All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
>So the question is obviously, how do we change the news ecosystem from what it is, to a system that makes people better informed? By bettering basic education. People could learn the relationships and interdependecies of the system and society itself, including the role of information. Why not learn everything through RPGs? This would create a demand for better news sources in the long term.
I don't understand your reasoning for why you think better basic education would increase demand for more informative news sources. Could you explain more?
Because education increases environmental awareness, and informative news provides it. So you'd want informative news to remain environmentally aware.