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My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn

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Re: My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn

#211

Post by vanusa »

lubujackson wrote: post #200
Barrin92 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

current risk for healthy adults appears to be 0.1-0.2% which is comparable to a bad flu season while the chance of getting infected is lower by several magnitudes given how relatively few numbers of cases there are even if you assume there's a lot of asymptomatic cases. If we take China as a comparison, a country with urban agglomerations of 50 million people and more and the 80k cases as rough estimate then the chan…

So you are arguing that the CURRENT risk is way less, with no consideration given to the exponential spread of the disease as we have seen in China and now South Korea, Italy and Iran? The only thing keeping the exponential spread in check is everyone literally bunkering in place for weeks, but there is no logical reason the spread won't pick up again as soon as people are forced to go out and interact again. The vir…

That's the thing - the commenter doesn't even bother to distinguish between current and future risk. Let alone the risk to someone living in a major, congested, filthy city v. in a shack on a mountaintop somewhere.

So there's not much we do with their prognosis.

Re: My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn

#212

Post by ciceryadam »

kalipsosu wrote: post #181
eganist wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what we can tell, SARS-CoV-2 has a 2% mortality rate among those diagnosed. That seems like a pretty decent trade in odds if it accelerates early stage treatment.

2% within confirmed cases. There is a part of the iceberg which we cannot see because mild cases will not seek care. Actual mortality rate is far lower than that. You should check mortality rate for outside wuhan population. It is 0.08%

Italy's 52 deaths vs 1900 cases is higher than 2% - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/02/italys-coronav...

Re: My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn

#213

Post by vanusa »

tyfon wrote: post #43
endorphone wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems like an invented rationalization given that the average person touches their face up to 3000 times a day already ( up to . It is trivial to find details of this range). If you adjust a mask a few times, but in return it stops you from touching your nose/mouth constantly, that's an enormous win. And just to clarify, again people are talking about surgical masks. N95 masks, which are still "cheap paper masks…

It is what I read by an associate in microbiology and infection control [1]. I tend to listen to experts but maybe he's wrong about the field he is studying, I'm not an expert :) Translated from Norwegian: - Does a facemask help against spreading virii? - No, not when you are using it out among people. The point is that you will scratch your face and get your fingers in contact with your soft tissue. So it is counter…

Again this is about "regular paper masks" -- not specially rated masks such as N95.

Also, it dodges the question of - "What if, being adults, we train ourselves not to scratch our face (in view of the seriousness of the issue)? Will masks help then?"

Re: My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn

#214

Post by aschatten »

pombrand wrote: post #204
vanusa wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Masks are considered useless unless you are infected. That's not what the guidelines said. They guidelines were referring only to "hygienic masks" a.k.a. generic surgical masks: The Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) does not recommend that people who are well wear hygienic masks (surgical masks). If you are in good health, they do not protect you effectively against an infection with respiratory viruses (i.e. se…

N95 masks may only be effective used with eye protection. Surgical masks may not help at all. Looked for interventional studies testing whether face masks and eye protection work in humans to protect against airborne viral particles. A big issue with many such studies is that medical staff only use masks and/or eye protection at work, opening them to being infected outside of work. Found a small study [1] getting aro…

Thanks for the great reference. I am tired of people saying how masks are inefficient and all, based only on speculations.
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