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Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

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Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#211

Post by ummonk »

wwweston wrote: post #113
vondur wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people aren’t bothering to report crimes now. The police won’t do anything about it. You can pretty much get away will minor property crimes/theft now without any repercussions.

If we're making assertions contrary to data and treading on unfalsifiable positions, then I suppose the source is anecdotes, and I suppose mine are as good as any: I lived in Los Angeles in the early 90s for two years, and visited frequently through the rest of the decade. Experienced petty crime on at least 3 occasions, had a few close calls with violent crime, saw the Rodney King riots unfold, and heard some pretty…

>The weirdest thing is that this is apparently happening with a net outflow from the state. Rents up over 60% with a stable/decreasing demand pool for housing is an odd dynamic and likely means this is no ordinary supply problem.

Only a net migration of domestic residents. After factoring in natural population growth and foreign immigration you still have a growing population.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#212

Post by bduerst »

mdavidn wrote: post #157
zone411 wrote: post #30

We made a map using domestic migration data: https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1202655115628466177

It seems obvious that states with the largest populations would see the most people leave. This graphic would be more interesting if the scale were per 1,000 capita.

I tend to agree, but how would you weight it between states?

Per 1000 capita in the source state or the destination state?

Also that would overweight the low pop density states, assuming there's a baseline immigration rate, painting an entirely different picture with the Dakotas/Wyoming/etc.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#214

Post by chrisco255 »

GhettoChild wrote: post #187
highdesertmuse wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question:do you still vote Democrat?

Every large city in this country is run by democrats. Texas is no different.

No, it's not. Ft. Worth is run by Republicans. San Diego, Jacksonville, El Paso, Oklahoma City, Fresno, Mesa, Omaha, Colorado Springs, Miami, Virginia Beach, Tulsa, Arlington...all have Republican mayors.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#215

Post by lotsofpulp »

OrangeMango wrote: post #35
blululu wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may be slightly skewed by the effect of retirees (people earn the most before they retire). Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather. A lot of affluent people leave the state and retire to Florida. I'm not sure if the article's analysis is really concerned with these nuances.

> Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather Illinois has a flat income tax; at $135k income you would only be beat by the states that have no income tax (like Florida). Most of the states on that list also have weather that is either terrible in the summer or terrible in the winter, so I doubt that weather is really a factor in people moving.

Illinois has massive levels of debt, which mean ever increased taxes and decreasing government services for the next 20+ years. And they’re going to hit you hard if you’re upper middle class, since that’s who has the money.

Same situation with NJ and CT and KY.

If I was investing the next 5+ years of my life somewhere, I would check the reports below:

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/financial-stat...

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/2019-financial...

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#216

Post by sgustard »

freehunter wrote: post #7
yboris wrote: post #2

Would be great if their charts were showing % rather than absolute numbers (or at least would show % in addition to absolute numbers). It shouldn't be too surprising: California and New York are in top 5 by population size. ps - their use of "hemorrhaging" to describe movement of people feels inappropriate.

“Hemorrhaging” is a pretty common way to describe an exodus of people or money. It’s a common metaphor that’s also used in “stop the bleeding” or the similar “stem the tide”. Business is full of otherwise wildly inappropriate phrases, like “drink the kool-aid” in reference to the mass suicide of nearly 1000 people in the Jonestown cult. I have no idea how that’s considered an appropriate phrase for any situation but…

The issue with the word is that implies something that if left unchecked will cause disaster. So 100k people per year have left, and yet "California’s population still grew by about 2 million over this period". I really don't see the problem.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#217

Post by GhettoChild »

weiming wrote: post #148
highdesertmuse wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question:do you still vote Democrat?

Tongue-in-cheek comment that I've read somewhere is that folks flee Democrat-run cities due to high taxes and mismanagement and move elsewhere, but then continue voting Democrat to bring back the same policies they wanted to escape from.

What is a large American city run by republicans?

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#218

Post by zionic »

formerchamp wrote: post #194
m_ke wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the people I know who left NYC also left because of housing costs, even though New York has been putting up new housing at an insane rate. https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/migration-study/

It doesn't help when there are insane regulations like dedicating double digit percentage of new units to be "affordable"/subsidized/section 8. Anyone with a full time minimum wage job would not qualify for "affordable" housing, you literally have to not work at all, it's such a scam.

The entire idea is preposterous. The solution to affordable housing is oversupply of housing. Gov should incentivize new construction to reduce prices and let the market fix it.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#219

Post by GhettoChild »

chrisco255 wrote: post #214
GhettoChild wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every large city in this country is run by democrats. Texas is no different.

No, it's not. Ft. Worth is run by Republicans. San Diego, Jacksonville, El Paso, Oklahoma City, Fresno, Mesa, Omaha, Colorado Springs, Miami, Virginia Beach, Tulsa, Arlington...all have Republican mayors.

A mayor does not make a city. If that was the case California would be a republican state since they have had republican governors in the recent past.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#220

Post by jaggederest »

bdamm wrote: post #207
toast0 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As one of the Californians moving to the PNW, I've noticed the people who most hate those darn Californians moved from California about 10-15 years ago. I've been here about 18 months, and only run into one guy who has deep roots here and was super grumpy about Californians. I'm sure it varies though depending on exactly where you are.

It's all pretty silly really since almost nobody in the PNW has roots that go deeper than 3 generations.

9 generations and counting, but people who hate "newcomers" are just uptight anyway. The attitudes of the pacific northwest are something most people can adopt in about six months, and most of the people who move here are looking for a change of pace anyway.
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