The argument is based on looking a the world as a whole. In developed world energy intensity of GDP is decreasing even when you take into account imports. Post-industrial economies can grow while decreasing energy use. What the author is suggesting is that the developing world should stop growing. I can't agree with that. They need their electricity and washing machines. GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP…
I'm sorry, but this a debunked myth – you need to take into account all the material flows, not just import of goods. There's actually no decoupling going on. See the following article: https://www.pnas.org/content/112/20/6271
What is energy, actually? (2011)
211–220 of 286 posts
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#212Somewhat tangentially related: I wrote this in a private note to a friend last year. I don't believe this 100%, but the idea is worth exploring in my opinion: 1. Corporations desperately pursue continuous growth, even when they're already profitable, and do so at the expense of the environment, employee welfare and sometimes, the rule of law. 2. Corporations pursue growth because investors demand it. 3. Investors dem…
Agents in economics are typically modeled as maximizing wealth or utility, which is different from 4, which says agents want wealth to be non-decreasing.
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is the good kind of growth, the dematerialization of the economy is a major factor in the lower energy elasticity in developed countries...
What dematerialization? Facebook's entire business model is advertising, in other words: getting you to buy things. It used to be Google's and Amazon's entire business model, too, until they diversified into cloud services. It's the exact opposite of dematerialization. Edit: To clarify, I'm not at all against these things. On the contrary. My point is that among those people most vocal in demanding (sometimes radical…
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've long been of the opinion that the public trading of companies is directly responsible for much of the social injustice we see in the West. As soon as there's a fiduciary duty to maximise ROI, morals go out the window. If you as an officer resist, the collective of shareholders will replace you with someone who will make more money. There's a dissolution of responsibility that comes with the distributed nature of…
> If you as an officer resist, the collective of shareholders will replace you with someone who will make more money. How? Shareholders are either to small to wield power, or big enough to be equivalent to a private owner. There are plenty of boring public companies that don't fight for 10+% share price growth every year.
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Warren Buffett likes to regularly point out that the Fed's rates act like gravity on stock valuations. The lower the rates, the less gravity. The same is largely true of how housing is affected by the Fed's rates. If you want to absolutely crush housing prices, push Fed rates back up to where mortgage rates are at 15-20% again. What that all really means is, the lower the rates, the more asset valuation inflation o…
Why do so many plans such as this exist which serve to enrich our government with so much more funding when they are currently incredibly bad at spending what they have? The US spends more per capita on education than many countries who are ahead of us. Construction of public transportation is filled with corruption and inefficiency. So many tasks still require snail mail or physically going and waiting in a line whe…
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do so many plans such as this exist which serve to enrich our government with so much more funding when they are currently incredibly bad at spending what they have? The US spends more per capita on education than many countries who are ahead of us. Construction of public transportation is filled with corruption and inefficiency. So many tasks still require snail mail or physically going and waiting in a line whe…
Why can't we work on both problems at the same time?
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why 5%? That's enough to very nearly double the recurring cost of my house (mortgage, insurance and taxes), which seems overly punitive. Does this get offset somewhere else? Looking at a few quick numbers from Google, just residential property alone would add 50% to current US tax revenues. I'm guessing that means we'd be in the ballpark of doubling Federal tax revenue. I guess that's not necessarily a bad thing, but…
It would likely halve the market value of property, causing a massive wave of strategic foreclosures and also mean the revenue would be more like 2.5% of current property valuation. It would also likely be a massive long-term boost to equity markets, though the transitional financial chaos would be a short-term drag.
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#218The title is misleading in that it's not exactly the conclusion the article arrives at. The article has it quite the other way round: Once energy consumption doesn't grow anymore we either need more efficient means of growth (i.e. less energy consumption per growth unit) or we have to forego growth. It's pre-Industrial-Age Malthus all over again: Barring paradigm shifts that allow for more efficient production planet…
At a basic level, it's a cognitive bias regarding economics, the idea of ultimate scarcity: a pie that's forever limited in size and that we all must share (opposite of a view of "abundance"). It however contradicts most of our experience of economics; throughout history champions of "abundance" (who dare to create it) are known as great kings and merchants and soldiers and religious figures. Facts are much less favorable to proponents of scarcity — such mindsets usually lead to economic crisis, under-development, stagnation.
The scarcity view here would move that Earth is already saturated, no more room for anything / anyone, and thus we must all reduce our hopes and start sharing what little is there. Obviously, this is scientifically and economically absolutely wrong, the problem is more about distribution — the Earth is the kind of planet that can sustain 1,000 times more population, and that's low-balling it in terms of thermodynamics. It really is more a problem of energetic efficiency and now externalities (space industry to the rescue).
On a cultural level, technology and development seem to map on a spectrum of perceptions ranging from "technological utopists" to "luddites" (believers in a technological doom). Both extremes are unlikely so most people/cultures fall in-between, around the center usually.
It seems, again from history, from literature, that the best kind of development stems from a culture 'rather slightly positively biased towards technology' (with limits and caveats, what we could call a 'problem-solution driven society'). This was basically the bedrock of innovating Damascus around 1200, of innovating China (key moments throughout the last millennium), and of the scientific revolution in Europe, as well as 20th/21st century tech centers in America and Asia.
My problem with anti-growth beliefs and scarcity proponents is they usually stop short of describing the whole picture, what implementing it actually does to populations, what economic slowdown or depression mean in real-felt terms for real-people. In my mind it's just as dangerous as saying "oh let's build a fascist state because that will be better to solve our problems, that's a risk worth taking!" On paper, maaaaaaybe, you might think that, as a thought experiment; in real life it just never worked. Never. That cure has always been worse than the disease. True for fascism, true for economic shrinking (and there's no "minimizing" growth, the minute you stop aiming for growth which isn't easy nor granted by the way, you find yourself in a world of depressed indicators and it becomes uncontrollable).
Sometimes I feel like people don't realize that piloting a global economy is more like dog fighting or F1, it's not a walk in the park that we are free to take casually and amend to our liking — "oh, let's take this nice little path here!". No, it's hard, and when we fail too much, people die. It's not a toy to play with, it's a freaking hard tension between survival and progress. Idealism is very dangerous when met with complacency.
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
The elephant in the room is the continual neglect or the downright (intellectual) hate shown to anyone who had dared mention Malthus in the last 25-30 years (his thoughts had a bit of intellectual resurgence in the 1970s, but that was pretty much it). It seems like in the last 2 or 3 years we have tried and tried to reach his same conclusions in very convoluted ways, ignoring his very existence. The good thing at lea…
Malthus is just the tip of the iceberg. There are so many "forbidden charts" that people can lose their jobs over these days! Outside of global warming--all we plebes get are Pinker-nuggets on how everything is just fine.
Re: What is energy, actually? (2011)
#220Unless births are also somehow limited, limiting GDP growth will eventually cause large amounts of poverty. Nobody wants to admit that the only real way to limit energy consumption is a horrible dystopian future.
The only exception is Africa but even there the highest emitting countries like South Africa have a birth rate barely above replacement levels.