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Tesla Q3 Financial Results

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Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#211

Post by gimmeThaBeet »

paulpauper wrote: post #205
rainyMammoth wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it's good they didn't invest on your advice to go long on TSLA. If you invested into The diversified SP500 instead with the same timeline (2015 to today) it would give you a slightly similar or even better return than TSLA that went from 195 to 295 ( and that is IF the current price holds until tomorrow which will most probably not). Never forget opportunity cost while investing!

but the person who buys telsa instead of an index fund is likely anticipating increase volatility and has higher risk tolerance

They can anticipate higher volatility, but that doesn't mean they're being compensated for it.

Yeah we have the benefit of hindsight, but that's what we're talking about. If you're just evaluating past performance starting from any point in 2015, Tesla generated average returns, was pretty uncorrelated (which is great), and was way more volatile than the S&P. That's not thrilling.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#212

Post by akimball »

xiphias2 wrote: post #92
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Some of these cars are superior to Tesla e.g. Porsche Taycan Depends on your metrics. IMO, the Model 3 Performance is the superior car. Half the price, quicker, longer range, and has access to the largest fast-charging network in the country.

You didn't even mention efficiency, which means generally slower charging time/km/kW for Taycan. On the other hand Porshe is still luxury brand, so I can imagine the interior being more elegant.

Slow, heavy Volkswagen is my take.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#213

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

nyczomg wrote: post #45

Sorry if this is slightly off topic, but it is amazing to me how differently various publications are spinning the same basic facts. Some headline samples: "Tesla shares soar after crushing third-quarter earnings" CNBC "Tesla's Quarterly Profit Drops 54%" WSJ "Tesla returns to profitability and tops Wall Street's third-quarter earnings" Business Insider "Tesla ekes out a profit as all eyes turn to its China Gigafacto…

Note WSJ changed their headline to "Tesla Delivers a Surprising Profit" (the URL still has the old headline): https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-quarterly-profit-drops-5...

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#214

Post by chrischen »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #213
nyczomg wrote: post #45

Sorry if this is slightly off topic, but it is amazing to me how differently various publications are spinning the same basic facts. Some headline samples: "Tesla shares soar after crushing third-quarter earnings" CNBC "Tesla's Quarterly Profit Drops 54%" WSJ "Tesla returns to profitability and tops Wall Street's third-quarter earnings" Business Insider "Tesla ekes out a profit as all eyes turn to its China Gigafacto…

Note WSJ changed their headline to "Tesla Delivers a Surprising Profit" (the URL still has the old headline): https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-quarterly-profit-drops-5...

Sometimes they do that with clickbait titles to get initial article traction, or test titles.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#215

Post by zaroth »

gok wrote: post #105
zaroth wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you know what? All the headlines are true! Knowing which takeaways matter is the hard part, and particularly with investing, if you did know, you’d be very rich. I think the YoY EPS is the least interesting and more erratic headline personally. They had one prior profitable quarter which happened to be Q3 2018. That was under a full subsidy regime only selling the highest ASP Model 3s while there was still higher…

> They had one prior profitable quarter which happened to be Q3 2018 Both Q3 and Q4 2018 were profitable, and so was Q3 2016, and Q1 2013.

Damn I should have known that. You hear so many deride Tesla over and over I internalized the “they were profitable for one damn quarter” and took it as fact.

  March,     2013 - $ 11.5M
  September, 2016 - $ 21.88M
  September, 2018 - $311M
  December,  2018 - $139M
  September, 2019 - $143M

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#216

Post by zaroth »

gibolt wrote: post #202
refurb wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Highly confident of exceeding 360k deliveries for 2019. Musk got in trouble for tweeting that he’d hit 500,000 this year.

*Run rate of 500,000

From their 2018 Q4 report;

“Barring unexpected challenges with Gigafactory Shanghai, we are targeting annualized Model 3 output in excess of 500,000 units sometime between Q4 of 2019 and Q2 of 2020.”

Musk later tweeted he thought it would come in at the earlier Q4 side of the guidance.

500k annualized is 9,600/wk. They past 7k/wk with Fremont and want to be at 3k/wk in GF3 by the end of the year.

I think they will guide a range of 600-750k units in 2020. It depends how quickly they can get GF3 up to 5k/wk and how much additional capacity they will bring on for Model Y in Summer 2020.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#217

Post by zaroth »

rainyMammoth wrote: post #175
hw wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just about mass producing an EV though. It's also about the software and tech, and building not just a moving battery pack but one that comes together well with the software, self driving tech, and a supercharging network will be where Tesla will have an advantage for many more years to come.

Can we please all stop pretending Tesla is a software company? This is the same fallacy as stating that WeWork is a tech company. Yes, there is a bit of software to their stack which they do well. But Tesla is a CAR company (bordering on the lifestyle category).

I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to say that Tesla is a software company the same way Apple is a software company. They don’t make their money selling software, but their software is a huge reason they are making money.

There is a heck of a lot of software in that car and in all the infrastructure supporting that car. And unlike their competitors, Tesla doesn’t outsource it.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#218

Post by zaroth »

Richard_East wrote: post #209
hizanberg wrote: post #41

Normally I invest in companies who I believe are undervalued and have solid fundamentals/profitability and are well positioned for future growth. TSLA is one of my few "emotional investments" of companies I've invested in because I want it to succeed. IMO its share price is highly speculatively priced, but I expect they'll eventually be able to maintain profitability to justify it as they're best positioned to benefi…

To really take off in Europe, they need a smaller vehicle. Something the size of a BMW 1-series. Streets here are very narrow.

Model 3 is not tiny, but it’s IMO as small as you would ever want a car that travels highway speeds for safety reasons. I doubt Tesla will ever make a tiny 2-seater but I guess if the market is there they will follow it!

BMW 1: 173” x 69”

Model 3: 184” x 72.8”

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#219

Post by r00fus »

Robotbeat wrote: post #178

One of the biggest pieces of news from the earnings call is that they're planning on supplying batteries/powertrains to other carmakers. That's a great idea for several reasons: 1) Of all parts of the car (ignoring autonomy-related stuff), Tesla is best at the battery and powertrain. They have a sizable efficiency advantage compared to almost anyone else. By supplying this key part, they should be able to maximize th…

Could this be like the time Apple switched to Intel and gave up the animosity against The rest of the computing industry?

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#220

Post by missedthecue »

csours wrote: post #63

I'd like to know what Tesla's debt load is, minus any debt related to vehicle leasing. Basically I wonder how much they owe in long term loans and bonds. I think it's on page 24, but I don't know how to read it. Ycharts says 13B - https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/total_long_term_debt

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/65db1b3c-3edd-44b0-86ec-71...

As of the end of June, 2019, they had $12.159 Billion in long term debt, not including vehicle leasing.

You can view the debt individually with interest rates and maturity date on page 23 of my attached document

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