"May" drive them back? This has already happened in my circles.. People who had cut the cord but all but walked away from casual piracy and signed up for Netflix and HBO (and probably Prime Video because they had Amazon Prime already) are openly talking about the fact they're definitely not signing up for more streaming services, and are seeking out torrenting again for the stuff that's being pulled from Netflix (esp…
That's not really what it's about. You have no idea how utterly janky Plex and torrenting is. People on Hacker News find IT stimulating, so their experience is basically moot. It's like trying to predict trends based on a nerd's hot take of the iPod.
It has always been about enforcement. Seen in this lens, the hassle of pirating movies is itself a form of enforcement of copyright protections, even if the IT is not a legal instrument.
Enforcement has definitely weakened. Why though? It wasn't limited to bad PR, although again the Hacker News crowd is wildly incomparable to the population at large when it comes to issues like this.
What has changed is that TV makers are also now Internet providers. They are recouping the costs of piracy by raising your Internet prices. They don't make content you consume in the rest of the world, so naturally in the rest of the world fast Internet is dirt cheap.
Calling this a consequence of consolidation is accurate! It's just not about consolidation among ISPs, but between producers and ISPs.
And on top of that, all the people who held onto the cord were subsidizing your television. Now that they finally cut the cord, who's going to pay for it?