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GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

wsj.com

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Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#211

Post by clouddrover »

checktheorder wrote: post #195
gwbas1c wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. The biggest cost of an electric car is the battery; and the cost of batteries is dropping very fast. Everything else is significantly cheaper in an electric vehicle except for the cost of the battery. (Tesla used to say there's a "Moore's Law" of battery…

>You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. I think a case could be made for us already being at that point, if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in. ICE vehicles are obscenely mechanically complex. That complexity inevitably leads to lots of repair bills over an ICE vehicle's l…

> if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in

EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range.

The batteries for EVs need to get cheaper and more durable for the second-hand EV car market to be competitive with the second-hand ICE car market.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#212

Post by clouddrover »

malyk wrote: post #65
jedberg wrote: post #58

I'm trying to replace my 2012 SUV with another SUV. I've been looking all over for a plug in hybrid SUV, and there aren't any good ones. I want the plug in hybrid because 95% of the time we do less than 30 miles locally, but once in a while we drive a couple hundred. I would be fine with an all electric SUV with a decent range, but those don't exist either. The model X is not sufficient, and is also terrible for ever…

Yeah, this is what I don't understand, but maybe it's because my wife and I are a one car and mostly public transit oriented family. What I want: A hybrid electric with ~40 miles of battery and a 300mi gas tank for longer trips What Auto Manufacturers assume (I'm guessing): 2 car households where one is 100% electric and the other 100% gas. Seems to me like the plug in hybrid is the best of all worlds. Everyone can u…

> What I want: A hybrid electric with ~40 miles of battery and a 300mi gas tank for longer trips

A Toyota Prius Prime will do 25 miles of EV range and 640 miles total range: https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/

A Honda Clarity plug-in hybrid will do 47 miles EV range and 340 miles total range: https://automobiles.honda.com/clarity-plug-in-hybrid

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#214

Post by danans »

kevin_b_er wrote: post #71
throw0101a wrote: post #26

My parents' house does not have a garage or a driveway, how exactly will the only-full-EV future work for them? Where are they supposed to charge?

Your replies are mostly hostile, sadly. The electric vehicle "future" has yet to identify how to handle this. The charging infrastructure is incredibly weak unless you have a garage with a charger installed. A lot of people rent or have a small plot of land w/o a garage and they park on the street. The public charging infrastructure outside of California cities is weak. There are very few fast chargers, and the elect…

> That's over an hour to refill the tank.

Don't know about you, but I usually have at least 8 hours every night available for this purpose.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#215

Post by rasz »

Someone1234 wrote: post #2

To fully electric. As the article says, both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. Now they're shifted that effort over to electric because the incentives are better for them. The only companies trying to make hybrids for real are Toyota and Honda. Everyone else is just pumping out low effort compliance vehicles. It is hardly surprising that these vehicles haven't been hugely successful. I'd lov…

>make hybrids for real are Honda

Say hello to 2006-2011 Honda Civic IMA with non cooled non charge balanced battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic_Hybrid#Battery_lif...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkwOAUDdf0A

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#216

Post by ProfessorLayton »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #145
arrrg wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars like the Volt are most certainly not more complicated than ICE cars … You can simplify those cars significantly due to them being an hybrid.

The Volt has a 1.4L ICE engine, three clutches, two electric motors (of two different types--ferrite and neodymium), a large battery, a wall charger, an inverter, and a complicated mechanical transmission that accepts drive input from any motor. The Volt may be more efficient than an ICE car, but it is in no way simpler.

The Volt may not be simpler (Not saying it isn’t, but many of the parts you listed are in regular ICE cars, just in different proportions) — but that’s not inherently because it’s a hybrid.

Look at Toyota’s Hybrid Synergy Drive. It is rather beautiful in its simplicity, and bypasses the need for a traditional automatic transmission — a part so complicated the big auto makers have mostly given up on designing in-house. Toyota’s HSD scales from the tiny Prius to Hylander, something a CVT can’t do reliably.

Hondas’s hybrids are also mechanically simpler by bypassing a transmission as well, and the ICE motor driving the wheels directly at highway speeds.

Failing transmissions are often the cause of a totaled older car, because it is an extremely complex and expensive part to replace.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#217

Post by xedeon »

clouddrover wrote: post #211
checktheorder wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. I think a case could be made for us already being at that point, if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in. ICE vehicles are obscenely mechanically complex. That complexity inevitably leads to lots of repair bills over an ICE vehicle's l…

> if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range. The batteries for EVs need to get cheaper and more durable for the second-hand EV car market to be competitive with the second-…

>> EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range.

Can you back this up with actual data? Because this is simply not true:

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-...

TESLOOP’S TESLA MODEL S SURPASSES 400,000 MILES (643,737 KM)

"Battery degradation over the course of the first 194,000 miles was ~6% with multiple supercharges a day to 95-100%, instead of the recommended 90-95%. Between 194,000 and 324,000 miles Tesloop experienced battery degradation of ~22% (see below for details)."

What's important to note is that the vehicle was mainly charged using dc fast chargers (often multiple times a day). Had this not been the case, degradation would have been even lower.

Additional data: https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2019/2/6/tesloops-high-mileage-...

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#218

Post by malyk »

clouddrover wrote: post #212
malyk wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is what I don't understand, but maybe it's because my wife and I are a one car and mostly public transit oriented family. What I want: A hybrid electric with ~40 miles of battery and a 300mi gas tank for longer trips What Auto Manufacturers assume (I'm guessing): 2 car households where one is 100% electric and the other 100% gas. Seems to me like the plug in hybrid is the best of all worlds. Everyone can u…

> What I want: A hybrid electric with ~40 miles of battery and a 300mi gas tank for longer trips A Toyota Prius Prime will do 25 miles of EV range and 640 miles total range: https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/ A Honda Clarity plug-in hybrid will do 47 miles EV range and 340 miles total range: https://automobiles.honda.com/clarity-plug-in-hybrid

I have a Chevy Volt. It’s awesome. I just hate that more of these are being killed off. There are more in the market, but every loss feels like a step backwards.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#219

Post by clouddrover »

xedeon wrote: post #217
clouddrover wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range. The batteries for EVs need to get cheaper and more durable for the second-hand EV car market to be competitive with the second-…

>> EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range. Can you back this up with actual data? Because this is simply not true: https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-... TESLOOP’S TESLA MODEL S SURPASSES 400,000 MILES (…

The years aren't on it yet. Batteries degrade with use and with time. That car is only 3 years old.

Tesla warrants their batteries at 70% capacity for 8 years for the Model 3. The Model S and X have an 8 year warranty with no capacity guarantee:

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

So that's about what you should expect from a Tesla battery.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#220

Post by xedeon »

clouddrover wrote: post #219
xedeon wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range. Can you back this up with actual data? Because this is simply not true: https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-... TESLOOP’S TESLA MODEL S SURPASSES 400,000 MILES (…

The years aren't on it yet. Batteries degrade with use and with time. That car is only 3 years old. Tesla warrants their batteries at 70% capacity for 8 years for the Model 3. The Model S and X have an 8 year warranty with no capacity guarantee: https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty So that's about what you should expect from a Tesla battery.

The time factor has already been solved by the battery management system (BMS) as it keeps the pack at an ideal temperature to vastly prolong the life. Battery chemistry will not change much over time as long as it does not get too hot/cold.

In addition, current data indicates that for the first 50,000 miles (100,000 km), most Tesla battery packs will lose about 5% of their capacity, but after the 50,000-mile mark, the capacity levels off and it looks like it could be difficult to make a pack degrade by another 5%.

There's a ton of data and anecdotes on this subject at the https://teslamotorsclub.com forums.

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