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The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

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Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#211

Post by ksec »

sjwright wrote: post #90
sp332 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah sjwright asked about sales and got an answer about sales.

And I'm genuinely impressed that it's that high. I expected the Toyota Camrys and low cost Indian scooters to dwarf EV sales more than that—but I had forgotten about the Chinese manufacturers!

But I still agree with your point though, I don't call 2% market share booming. Not to mention the amount of incentives involves in pushing these numbers.

Battery and Charging point is still the biggest issue in most places around the world.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#212

Post by ianai »

clouddrover wrote: post #173
hodr wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It only took Kia 6 years to out-Toyota Toyota, that is to go from producing the worst mainstream cars in the us to the best in initial and 3 year quality metrics (and well above Toyota). (2009 when they built first US production line to 2015).

Nope, Toyota's still number one: https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expe... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/toyotas-a... Toyota has the most flexible production and the most reliable cars. Toyota isn't the biggest selling brand by accident.

I agree with both of you, cheekily. I genuinely can’t wait for Toyota to do a full BEV. I realize they say mainstream BEVs are a pipe dream still, but I think it’ll happen eventually.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#213

Post by ianai »

clouddrover wrote: post #186
serpix wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

twice? You only need brakes on an EV to stay still at the lights or in an emergency brake. That is it. The brakes last well over the entire lifetime of the car.

Don't believe the hype: https://jalopnik.com/the-truth-about-brake-pad-replacement-i...

They made an argument through extreme literal interpretation.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#214

Post by woodandsteel »

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

The boom is going to come pretty soon. According to the experts around 2023 dropping battery prices (they went down 35% in 2018 alone) means BEV's will reach sticker price parity with many comparable ICE's.

Many of the big manufacturers have realized this in the last year or so, and are scrambling like crazy to get into EV's. The best example is VW, which in the last year has signed contracts for 48 billion dollars worth of batteries, and is building three big EV manufacturing plants and partially converting 4 old ICE plants, and has a couple of dozen models coming out in the next 5 years.

If you want to follow these developments, a good source is cleantechnica.com. Another is electrek.co

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#215

Post by sjwright »

benj111 wrote: post #125
sjwright wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I'm genuinely impressed that it's that high. I expected the Toyota Camrys and low cost Indian scooters to dwarf EV sales more than that—but I had forgotten about the Chinese manufacturers!

"low cost Indian scooters" Would those actually be included in these figures?

I don't know, but they should be. Not doing so would be contemptuous for people of lower socio-economic means.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#216

Post by sjwright »

foxylad wrote: post #82
londons_explore wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the decreased maintenance costs will actually happen initially. Big design changes like the shift to EV require lots of new parts to be designed, and every new part has a non-zero chance of a reliability issue. 5 years time, we'll be talking about the motor mount point which rusts through and causes a chunk of EV cars to fail. A 2nd effect is as cars get more computerized, 3rd party repairs will get muc…

Disagree with maintenance: electric motors are enormously simpler than ICE, and really well understood. Removing high temperatures, fuel, lubrication and exhaust from the system is a huge advantage. Agree on digital scrapheap, although this applies to a lesser extent to ICE vehicle too. We should be demanding open sourcing of car code after warranty expires.

The electric drivetrain is simpler, but electric cars tend to require more parts in order to replace the heat and rotational power you get "for free" with a combustion engine.

Electric cars need to have separate motors to drive the AC compressor instead of a simple belt.

Electric cars need resistive and/or reverse cycle heating instead of using engine heat.

Electric cars (if they care about battery longevity) need elaborate heating/cooling systems for the battery.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#217

Post by sjwright »

clouddrover wrote: post #110
sjwright wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volkswagen might do well in electrics, but that remains to be seen. Personally it'll take a while for the dieselgate stench to leave that company, at least for me. (I don't care so much about the actual emissions, for me it showed the contempt they have for their customers.)

Volkswagen are doing well in electric motorsport: - The Volkswagen ID.R set the fastest Goodwood hill time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8il5ohB8FYk - The VW ID.R set the fastest Pikes Peak time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnH15dejp0s - The VW ID.R set the fastest electric time (second fastest overall time) at the Nürburgring-Nordschleife: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRCiGABQupA - Audi is already in Formu…

Please, you're acting like an employee of their marketing department. Your rabid enthusiasm is not interesting. They're a car company that wants to be successful, not a sports team. Still, good luck to them—and maybe I might even consider an electric VW in the future—but it'll be a while before their reputation is repaired.

(And thankfully their EVs won't have their junky and jerky DSG transmissions...so that's another plus.)

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#218

Post by sjwright »

Theodores wrote: post #91
sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

> normal door handles The business plan always was to start at the high end with the Roadster, then the deluxe sedan and then the affordable Model 3. The Model 3 has cheaper door handles than the Model S. Tesla is about building car factories rather than cars. Once you have the robots doing as they are told then you can make whatever you want. If you had to recycle a Lamborghini and a Dacia Sandero then you would pro…

All true, but I still disagree that the Model 3 is affordable. It's still in the luxury space in terms of pricing.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#219

Post by sjwright »

audunw wrote: post #119
F_r_k wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're expensive

The Model 3 one? Doubt that they're significantly more expensive. They have some problem with frozen door handles which they should probably get some fix for, like putting in a heating element. That would add cost, but also not much.

It's not so much about cost but rather simplicity of manufacturing, ease of use, robustness, and not signalling that they want to be clever for the sake of it.

The door handles are a symptom of the design ego of Tesla. It's the same thing with the elimination of nearly all physical buttons. It's the right instinct but they've taken it too far.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#220

Post by clouddrover »

sjwright wrote: post #217
clouddrover wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volkswagen are doing well in electric motorsport: - The Volkswagen ID.R set the fastest Goodwood hill time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8il5ohB8FYk - The VW ID.R set the fastest Pikes Peak time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnH15dejp0s - The VW ID.R set the fastest electric time (second fastest overall time) at the Nürburgring-Nordschleife: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRCiGABQupA - Audi is already in Formu…

Please, you're acting like an employee of their marketing department. Your rabid enthusiasm is not interesting. They're a car company that wants to be successful, not a sports team. Still, good luck to them—and maybe I might even consider an electric VW in the future—but it'll be a while before their reputation is repaired. (And thankfully their EVs won't have their junky and jerky DSG transmissions...so that's anoth…

> Please, you're acting like an employee of their marketing department.

Nope. I'm just across the issues and the state of play more than you are.

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