Ok, I am late to the show. Where can I watch the recording?
Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
211–220 of 550 posts
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm assuming Level 4 is what Musk means by Full Self Driving. The bar to be passed is then "No driver attention is ever required for safety (...) self-driving is only supported in limited circumstances (e.g. geofencing), and when these circumstances are no longer met the vehicle must be able to safely abort the trip, e.g. park the car, if the driver does not retake control." How would that work if you're out driving…
It isn’t like it all cameras simultaneously go from 0% obstruction to 100% obstruction instantaneously. The car should pull off the highway and park or at least pull to the shoulder and park once it has identified decreased visibility to an extent that might impact safety.
It kinda is though. Snow deposition is a function of surface temperature, which is uniform across the sensor. Hit the wrong initial temp when you enter a blizzard, and deposition takes your vision in seconds. It can be hard enough to see out the windshield which has heating, wipers and anti-freeze wiper fluid fighting for it.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#213Interesting pieces: - First principles hardware design of focused self driving computer (many times better than any competing existing hardware). Already shipping in all newly produced cars. Currently working on next gen that will be 3x better to ship in a couple years. - Lidar is an unnecessary mistake that competitors are making that won't succeed (too expensive, need too many, unnecessary). - Real world fleet test…
>many times better than any competing existing hardware
Except that it isn't. NVIDA's Drive AGX Pegasus delivers 320 TOPS:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-says-tesla-inaccura...
Of course, nobody inside the Musk Reality Distortion Field actually cares about this.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#214Holy cow Elon said a lot of things that will drastically change the world in the next 2-3-5 years. I think it's very, very clear they've been doing a lot of stuff behind that scenes that nobody has given them credit for over these last 5 years. Everyone thought they were just throwing everything at the Model 3 ramp and doing nothing else, but it turns out the opposite is true. At the end Elon said autonomy is basical…
And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.
If the current state of autopilot is even tangentially related to their progress on full self-driving, then it's a lot more than a few years away.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#215Holy cow Elon said a lot of things that will drastically change the world in the next 2-3-5 years. I think it's very, very clear they've been doing a lot of stuff behind that scenes that nobody has given them credit for over these last 5 years. Everyone thought they were just throwing everything at the Model 3 ramp and doing nothing else, but it turns out the opposite is true. At the end Elon said autonomy is basical…
And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.
This is definitely not true. The engineer explicitly stated that Tesla only gets data when trigger conditions are met (and that this was in fact always the case), so most of the miles that Tesla drivers have been driving was actually never even sent back to the mothership for use in ML training.
IOW, despite Elon claiming for years that they're ahead because of the "millions of miles" of free data collection by Tesla drivers, it turns out once the engineers on the ground actually speak...they're actually pretty far behind on the data front, and most of the data they are getting is the same safe routes over and over again since they're not trying to put Autopilot into novel situations to acquire new data or test the ML algorithm's capabilities to handle unique/novel situations (like trucks turning in the highway, or freeway dividers).
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are any cars ever as safe as you want?
Society has decided how to judge whether I am safe to drive, and I have passed the tests. I worry that the laws on the books are insufficient to judge whether a computer is safe to drive. If Tesla already has plans to increase safety, I'd like to know how they judge it, where they think they are, where they'd like to improve, etc. As a voter.
I think there is a lot of scope for an autonomous vehicle to be safer than a human driver. Consider:
1) computer has faster reaction times.
2) 360-degree awareness
3) better awareness of vehicle performance.
Imagine a scenario where you are at speed and get a tire blowout. The car can sense it instantly through tire pressure sensor, and counter the swerve appropriately - something that humans are very poorly prepared or practiced for.
Alternatively, a driver in a neighboring lane makes an unsafe lane change into your lane. The car sees him, honks the horn, moves/brakes/accelerates to avoid the other car, before you've even seen whats happening.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#217Man -- his engineers must cringe quite a bit when he talks about a future self-driving architecture built on DOJO with 'video-in, actuator controls out' ... just a tiny bit of speculation goes into saying something like that ... To my mind, it undermines the presentation quite a bit which otherwise appears to mainly argue that they will reach full self-driving by iterating on their neural network sensor perception mo…
Andrej Karpathy (who was one of the presenters today) actually made similar statements last year, about how the part of the software stack that is not neural networks is gradually shrinking:
https://youtu.be/y57wwucbXR8?t=352
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can already do that with existing cars(pretty much anything that has power steering, so last 30 years of cars) and yet you don't see people hijacking vehicles left and right this way(or any other way, you can cut someone's brakes in 5 seconds and yet it's extremely rare). I think this is a made up problem.
It's not about usual hijacking or rigging. It's about telling car to speed and slam into pedestrians if it sees large enough group of them, for example, and until that time it can just behave normally. Think of terrorists getting access to programmable robot that weighs over a ton, that can accelerate to 60 miles/hr under 5 seconds and it can identify objects in its surrounding.
So.....a new Mercedes with driver assist package then? And Mercedes will not stop you from modding their cars to your heart's content, you don't have to ask them for permission to work on your car like you have to with a Tesla.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
Vision is probablistic. You can improve your probabilities with more data and deeper nets, but the probability is never 100%. Inferring depth using triangulation of extracted features using vision is also probabilistic. Lidar gives you very rudimentary depth and positional data, but it is precise, and reliable, and the false positives are low. Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that…
I think the point was that lidar is too low resolution. You must have very high resolution (in both time and space) to achieve L4 or L5; to accurately determine if a pedestrian is not paying attention, or if a bicyclist is looking to cross the road. Not that Tesla is doing any of that right now, they most likely are not. But a lidar is not going to, either. Not ever, which is the point. I thought the fleet learning a…
You can achieve L4 before you can determine if a pedestrian is paying attention. Your car will be slowing down when it doesn't have to but it can work and work safely.
Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]
#220You cannot access the stream from Tesla anymore, I found it here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbgtGQIygZQ Karpathy did a great job explaining this, I took Neural Networks a long time back and his back to basics approach refreshed a lot of concepts I'd forgotten!
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